Information Overload: Week 14

Using highly valuable visuals, Aaron Hendrix looks closely at various advanced data sets and then comments on how we can best take advantage in daily fantasy football each week.

Author’s Note – Information Overload is in progress. When this note is removed, the article is complete

Week 14

All data in Information Overload is utilizing 2018 season data only. For reference to last season’s data, please refer to my Week 1 article.

Information Overload

How much information is too much information? Those familiar with my Information Overload article from the 2017 NFL Playoffs know that I believe there’s never enough. Over the course of the 2018 season, I’m going to present a boatload of data and projections (along with analysis) to help guide you through this weekend’s massive GPPs.

Here’s a quick summary of everything that is included in this article. You can click on the images to view them in more detail if you have problems viewing them. If you have ideas for things you’d like to see in future articles, be sure to leave them in the comments.

— Injury situations to monitor for the upcoming week
— Pace chart showing where teams rank in terms of pace in different game flow situations (utilizing a custom infograph)
DVOA matchups (utilizing a custom infograph)
— Offensive line versus defensive line matchups (utilizing a custom infograph)
— Team run success (offense and defense) based on run direction and offense run direction percentage (utilizing a custom infograph)
— Defense against the pass based on pass direction and distance (utilizing a custom infograph)
— Defense against specific receiver types (utilizing a custom infograph)
— My analysis of how each section impacts players and matchups from a DFS perspective


Injury Situations to Monitor

Coming Saturday


Pace Ranks

Pace, or the speed at which teams play, is an often overlooked statistic when it comes to NFL DFS. Those that play NBA DFS are well versed in its importance – the more possessions an NBA team has, the more opportunities a player has to score fantasy points. While efficiency with those possessions, in both basketball and football, matter – ultimately fantasy production will always benefit from more times touching the ball.

The fastest paced teams in the NFL will average under 25 seconds per play compared to the slowest paced teams averaging close to 30 seconds per play. That 5-second play differential might not seem like much but over the course of a 60-minute football game it’ll add up to more than 10 additional plays for the faster-paced team. Knowing how fast NFL teams play should be one of the steps you take each week in your weekly research process. It’ll help us identify games where there might be more plays called then in an average week (and thus more opportunities for offensive players to touch the ball) and vice versa with a slower-paced game meaning fewer opportunities.

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About the Author

  • Aaron Hendrix (thehazyone)

  • Aaron Hendrix is a former professional poker player who made the transition from season long fantasy sports to DFS in October of 2014. He used to cover poker tournaments for a living until stepping into his current role at RotoGrinders. He can be found on Twitter at @aaronhendrix

Comments

  • Hutch42

    Hello, on offensive line catergories are the higher the number such as sacks, stuffed and power, the higher the number the better or the lower the better ranking? Thanks

  • thehazyone

    RG Contributor

    • Blogger of the Month

    @Hutch42 said...

    Hello, on offensive line catergories are the higher the number such as sacks, stuffed and power, the higher the number the better or the lower the better ranking? Thanks

    That is their ranking so the lower the number the better. For example, New England is 1st in Sacks – this means according to Football Outsiders metrics, they are the team least likely to give up sacks to opposing teams based on this season’s statistical performance thus far.

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