Primetime Parlay: Jaguars vs. Saints Same Game Parlay Picks

by Joe Cistaro (joeycis) Last Updated 2024-06-18 12:23:26

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Last year, ScoresAndOdds’ ParlayIQ tool helped create a variety of fun same-game parlay tickets throughout the NFL season. Through thousands of simulations, the tool examines the potential value various betting lines offer on sports betting sites. Along with the simulations, we will examine stats, roster news, trends, player props, and betting odds across sports betting sites to find the best price for our same-game parlay ticket. For this article, we build a same-game parlay for the Jacksonville Jaguars versus the New Orleans Saints on Thursday Night Football.

Primetime football hits our screens on Thursday night as the New Orleans Saints welcome the Jacksonville Jaguars. After a strong stretch in London, the Jaguars claimed sole possession of the AFC South. In the NFC South, the Saints sit at 3-3 in a division that could be decided at the tail end of the season. For both teams, a win is crucial. Will Trevor Lawrence fight through a knee injury and suit up? Let’s build a same-game parlay ticket on FanDuel Sportsbook for tonight’s game.

Jaguars vs. Saints Same Game Parlay

At the time of this writing, the Saints are 1.5-point home favorites on Thursday night. The implied game total, which opened at 42.5 points, has been bet down to 39.5 as of Thursday morning. The big news? Will Trevor Lawrence play?

As of Thursday morning, reports are that Trevor Lawrence is confident he will play on Thursday night. That said, the Jaguars did sign Nathan Rourke from the practice squad to serve as a backup to C.J. Beathard if the veteran is forced into action. Zay Jones will not play on Thursday night — giving Christian Kirk and Calvin Ridley a bump. Further, cornerback Tyson Campbell is ruled out for Thursday’s game.

For the Saints, Tyrann Mathieu is questionable after practicing on a limited basis throughout the week. Derek Carr and Chris Olave were limited in practice but seem likely to go barring any last-minute updates on Thursday afternoon. Unfortunately, Derek Carr will be without his left and right tackle as James Hurst and Ryan Ramcyzk are ruled out for tonight’s contest. Juwan Johnson will also miss the game. Taysom Hill saw eight targets from Carr in Johnson’s absence last week.

We are going to build tonight’s parlay assuming that Trevor Lawrence is in, but we will surely check back prior to kickoff to confirm his presence.

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Travis Etienne scored two touchdowns last weekend in the Jaguars’ victory over the Colts. Etienne is just one of Jacksonville’s many weapons. Despite all of the weapons, the Jaguars continue to struggle on offense — averaging 4.8 yards per play over the last three weeks. The opposing defenses could be part of the issue, but fans are looking for Trevor Lawrence and Jacksonville to take the next step this season. The Jags are only 20th in yards per passing play in 2023.

Fortunately for the Jaguars, they play an offense that is less efficient in the Saints on Thursday night. Derek Carr — while playing with injury — continues to struggle to start the season. The Saints rank below the Jaguars in yards per pass attempt and only average 4.6 yards per play on offense. For the Saints, the defense continues to buoy the team — allowing only 4.6 yards per play on defense. The efficiency on defense has led to opponents averaging a measly 16 points per game.

With the rash of injuries on offense, tonight’s script seems to be all about whether or not the Saints’ defense can stand up to the bevy of weapons at the Jaguars’ disposal. At home in the bayou, will the Saints’ defense give Trevor Lawrence too much trouble? If Lawrence doesn’t go, expect a shift in the spread to favor New Orleans even more. Let’s look through ParlayIQ and its thousands of simulations to create a ticket for tonight’s game.

Same Game Parlay Picks for TNF

Carr Over 235.5 Passing Yards
Olave Over 62.5 Receiving Yards
Engram Over 43.5 Receiving Yards

Derek Carr Over 235.5 Passing Yards

The Jacksonville Jaguars possess a relatively stout rushing defense. Only allowing 3.6 yards per rush attempt, the Jaguars do not allow running backs to get loose. With regard to opponents, we should not forget the Jaguars already played the Colts and Titans — two teams that want to run the football.

So, despite the loss of tackles, Derek Carr is likely going to have to throw the football for the Saints to move the ball this evening. ParlayIQ finds this over in more than 60% of simulations — giving us a good start with regard to expected value. Do we trust the simulations? This season has been tricky but when building multiple-leg parlays, that is the expectation. We will open with Carr and try to correlate.

Chris Olave Over 62.5 Receiving Yards

Well, if Derek Carr is going over his passing prop, we should feel pretty confident that Chris Olave puts together a good game as well.

Olave has double-digit targets in 4 of 6 games and seems to always be in play to threaten 100 yards. With big play ability, Olave can collect yards in big chunks. Over the first third of the season, the Jaguars allowed 1,080 receiving yards to the wide receiver position — sixth-worst in the league.

If the Saints aren’t going to run the football well, Carr will look for his young stud receiver throughout the game. So, if the Saints passing game needs to click, we should probably bring this back with a Jaguar.

Evan Engram Over 43.5 Receiving Yards

ParlayIQ likes both Evan Engram and Calvin Ridley to exceed their receiving props, tonight. With Zay Jones out, some of the work will be spread around Lawrence’s other targets. I suppose I prefer Engram because of his consistent production.

Ridley’s upside is tremendous relative to his receiving total but we have seen games where he isn’t very active. On the other hand, Engram seems to see his 5-7 targets every game in the intermediate passing game. He has only fallen below this total once this season.

With the Saints passing game already going over on our ticket, FanDuel is going to find it quite logical that we include the over on a Jaguars pass-catcher. For that reason, while ParlayIQ loves this ticket, we should expect Fanduel to diminish our returns because of the correlation.