NFL DFS Showdown Lineup Optimizer Values: Jaguars-Saints DraftKings Picks
NFL Showdown season continues with the Jaguars at Saints on Thursday Night Football. Our expert analysts are breaking down DraftKings Showdown picks with our in-house NFL DFS lineup optimizer. Sign up for RotoGrinders Premium for full access to our NFL lineup optimizer and fantasy football projections all season long.
The 4-2 Jaguars bring their three game win streak into New Orleans to take on the 3-3 Saints, who have lost three of their last four games. Zay Jones remains out and Trevor Lawrence is questionable, although he hasn’t missed a game in his career so I’d be surprised if he didn’t play. The Saints will remain without Juwan Johnson, but will get Jamaal Williams back to help at RB behind Kamara. Both defenses have been solid this year, ranking in the top 12 in points allowed, and the extremely low game total reflects that, but with elite pass-catching RBs and speedy deep threats at WR for both teams, I think we’ll see at least a couple of big plays from each team even if we have to sit through a bunch of punts.
NFL DFS Showdown Picks: Jaguars at Saints Week 7
Currently, this game is sitting at a 39.5 total, with the Saints favored by 1.5 points. This is tied for the third-lowest total of the week but also tied for the closest spread of the week, so it should be a great game that comes down to the wire, even if points come at a premium. Even if Lawrence plays, I think the Jags will struggle to consistently move the ball on the road against a Saints defense that is ranked 5th in pass yards/game (182), 9th in rush yards/game (96.3), and 6th in points allowed/game (16). The Saints will have a tough matchup on the ground as the Jags defense is ranked 3rd in rush yards/game (75.3), but Carr and company should have success through the air against a 31st-ranked Jags pass defense, allowing 270.3 pass yards/game.
Quarterback
As the third most expensive player in this game with a lot going against him in this matchup, I won’t be looking to use Trevor Lawrence ($9,600) in cash games. Even if he isn’t hampered at all by his left knee sprain, he is still playing on a short week, on the road in a tough environment, against a top-five pass defense that has at least one INT in all but one game so far. We have to assume he’ll be at least a little less mobile and won’t be looking to run much, which gives him a lower floor from the get-go, and with no games so far of more than 2 pass TDs, I just think he won’t be worth his salary for your main build. If you’re doing MME (mass multi-entry), by all means have exposure to him, but I wouldn’t go overboard. If Lawrence does end up out, then CJ Beathard ($8,600) will also just be a GPP play for me.
Derek Carr ($8,800) is just the fifth most expensive player, and against the 31st ranked Jags pass defense, he is absolutely a cash game must-play in my opinion. If the Saints are going to put up points here, it will most likely be through the air as Jacksonville is allowing under 80 rush yards/game, and the Saints have no problem letting Carr air it out as he had 50 pass attempts last game and over 350 yards. Carr has one of the best pass-catching RBs along with a great WR group, and throw in Hill/Moreau at TE and I think the Saints will put up some points here, and I want Carr in my main build as the most likely contributor to those points.
Running Back
Alvin Kamara ($10,400) is the most expensive player tonight, and for good reason, as he’s seen 24, 25, and 26 touches in the three games he’s played so far. The matchup should give him a chance at 7+ catches as the Jags are much better against the run than the pass, and there’s even a possibility that Lawrence is extremely limited, the Saints dominate from the get-go, and Kamara just gets a bunch of carries with a big lead. Basically, I think Kamara is game-script proof and there are paths to him seeing 10+ targets and 15+ carries, so I would do my best to stack him with Carr in cash games, or at least use him on any GPP lineup you build that isn’t too heavy on Saints WRs for max leverage. With Williams expected back, I think Kendre Miller is a super risky play even in GPPs, so I will only be targeting Kamara from the Saints backfield.
Travis Etienne ($10,200) is the second priciest player tonight, and profiles very similarly to Kamara as the most likely skill players to see 20+ touches this game. Etienne has seen significantly fewer targets though, averaging just four a game, but has seen 18+ carries in all but one game, so the volume should still be there unless the Jags fall behind huge early. I’m more concerned that the Saints force Lawrence and his less than 100% knee to beat them, and they stack the box, which would make it even tougher for Etienne to pay off his price against an already stout rush defense. For the price, I will likely look at cheaper Jags skill players for my main build, but on volume alone Etienne should be in plenty of GPP lineups.
Wide Receiver
Since I’m considering Carr a top cash game play, I’m also considering Chris Olave ($9,000) basically a must-play in your main build, as he’s the top target for Carr and is facing one of the worst pass defenses. With 10+ targets in four of six games, Olave has one of the highest ceilings of anyone in this matchup, and I’d go with him in your captain spot if you can’t fit Kamara or Carr there. Michael Thomas is a solid value at $7,000 having seen at least 6 targets in every game so far, but he hasn’t topped 65 yards or found the endzone yet so he doesn’t really have the ceiling to make him an elite GPP play, but I think he’s a fine flex play to include in your Saints stacks for cash games. Rashid Shaheed ($5,000) is the Saints WR to go overweight on in GPPs as he’s a big time boom or bust play at a very cheap price, but I wouldn’t risk his low floor in cash games.
Calvin Ridley ($8,400) and Christian Kirk ($8,000) are similar plays to me today, as they’re both facing one of the best pass defenses and will either have Beathard throwing to them or a less than 100% Lawrence. I prefer Kirk for cash games as I think he’s more likely to pay off his salary on volume, while Ridley is going to need to connect on a couple of deep balls, making him more of a GPP target for me. Zay Jones being out does help their upside, and I would certainly have some stacks with both of them if you’re doing MME, but I’m tempering expectations on this Jags offense tonight so will likely use only one if any in my main build. Jamal Agnew ($400) is super cheap and worth throwing on a couple of GPP teams just in case he can turn a target into a TD, but he’s seen just one touch the last two games combined so I wouldn’t go overboard on him. Tim Jones ($200) has seen just two targets in the last three games and is off my radar.
Tight End
Evan Engram ($5,800) continues to be underpriced and is easily my favorite way to get exposure to this Jags offense in cash games. He’s seen 7+ targets in all but one game this year and has gone for 9.9+ FP in all but one game, and that’s without finding the endzone yet. With a less mobile Lawrence or Beathard at QB I’m expecting Engram to be a top short target for either QB, and he is definitely the top cash game flex play for under $6k.
With Johnson still out, Foster Moreau ($3,200) is technically the TE1, and he does have 20+ yards or a TD in each of his last three games played. I still don’t think he’s cheap enough for cash game consideration, but I don’t mind taking a chance on him on a couple of GPP teams. Taysom Hill ($6,200) has benefited the most in Johnson’s absence, coming off a 7 catch and 49-yard game on 8 targets, but again he’s just a GPP play for me as he is extremely volatile, and the return of Jamaal Williams could take away some of his short yardage and goal-line touches.
Defense / Special Teams
If Beathard starts at QB for the Jags, I would strongly consider the Saints DST ($5,400) for cash games, and even if Lawrence plays, I wouldn’t rule out using them in a flex spot. The Jags DST ($3,800) is cheap and worth some GPP lineups, but I’d only consider them for cash games if you absolutely love the rest of your team and they’re the only option that fits.
Brandon McManus ($4,800) has a huge leg and worth consideration for cash games as another cheap option to pair with Engram. Blake Grupe ($5,200) also has a big leg and gets the benefit of kicking in a dome, so I don’t mind including him on Saints stacks to cover all their scoring.
Thursday Night Football NFL DFS Strategy
I think the top lineups will have at least two of Carr-Olave-Kamara if not all three, while Engram and McManus seem like the most likely Jaguars to be optimal bring backs for the price. The Saints DST and Shaheed are top GPP plays, along with Etienne who I’m expecting to be much lower-owned than Kamara at just $200 cheaper. 4-2 or 5-1 Saints stacks are my favorite builds for cash games.
DraftKings DFS Showdown Rankings
1. Chris Olave – In my opinion, the highest upside play tonight, and a must-play to pair with Carr.
2. Derek Carr – Way too cheap at $8,800 and an easy play for cash games.
3. Evan Engram – Also too cheap at $5,800 and the best p/$ way to get Jags exposure.
4. Alvin Kamara – Should see the most touches of any player tonight, and should easily pay off his price on pure volume and receptions.
5. Saints DST / Brandon McManus – If the game script goes the way I think it does then the Jags offense stalls out on a lot of drives setting up McManus, while the Saints DST gets either a gimpy Lawrence or Beathard and should get plenty of sacks and turnover chances.
NFL DFS Lineup Optimizer for Thursday Night Football
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