Kyler Murray Favored to Win NFL MVP Ahead of Week 5 Game Against 49ers
The 2021 NFL season approaches Sunday of Week 5, and believe it or not we are over a quarter of the way through the regular season. Only 18 weeks separate us from Super Bowl LVI—which sounds like a lot, but it’s really nothing in the grand scheme of things. Futures bettors must be all over the Super Bowl and MVP odds boards, as we have as clear a view of the big picture as we have enjoyed all season.
At RotoGrinders, we analyze the MVP odds once a week, keeping an eye on the movement and determining the best values. We show you BetMGM’s updated top ten list, then reveal our best bets and favorite longshots to ultimately take down the most coveted single-player award in professional football.
Futures betting continues to rise in popularity, kind of like playing the long game in the stock market as opposed to short-selling (betting individual games). Making futures bets allows you to hitch your wagons to a player or team you believe in, and cash in on your investment down the line if they accomplish what you thought they would.
Let’s dive into our market update of the MVP race, and make some wagers!
All odds are from BetMGM, and all stats are from NFL.com and Pro Football Reference.
2021 NFL MVP Odds Board – Top 10
Kyler Murray +450 (Last week: No. 1, +550)
Josh Allen +600 (No. 5, +900)
Patrick Mahomes +750 (No. 2, +800)
Justin Herbert +800 (No. 7, +1100)
Tom Brady +900 (No. 3, +800)
Aaron Rodgers +1000 (No. 6, +1000)
Dak Prescott +1000 (No. 8, +1400)
Matthew Stafford +1000 (No. 4, +800)
- Lamar Jackson +2500 (No. 10, +2200)
- *Derek Carr +4000
Murray Favored to Win MVP
It would be irresponsible to feature anyone but Murray here. The third-year Cardinals QB has been absolutely electric all season, clearly the most dominant player in the league. Thanks mostly to his heroics both on the ground and through the air, Arizona serves as the last undefeated team standing, even though most pundits believed this franchise would miss the playoffs for the fifth-straight year.
The Cardinals rank No. 1 in the NFL in points and yards, and Murray ranks in the top five in a ton of QB stats: completion percentage (76.1%, 1st), net yards per pass play (8.6, 1st), yards per pass thrown (9.5, 2nd), gross passing yards (1,273, 3rd), passing TDs (9), QB rushing touchdowns (3, 2nd), and QB rating (115.0, 5th). He also has four different receivers on pace to accumulate 1,000 yards receiving this season. Whether you base your MVP vote on stats or the eye test, Kyler should be your guy through four weeks. If he does take the award, I wonder how big of a hit Arizona sportsbooks will take?
Josh Allen +600 (Last week: +900)
No surprise to see Allen jump all the way up to No. 2—he finished as the MVP runner-up to Aaron Rodgers last season. The fourth-year QB had a rough start to the 2021 campaign against Pittsburgh in Week 1, but he’s been cooking with gas ever since. He now has nine touchdowns to just two interceptions, and he’s got Buffalo smoking opponents.
In just the past two weeks, Allen has six passing TDs, one pick, 606 passing yards, and a 116.8 QB rating. I can’t fault you for betting him at +650, but I’d personally rather see what he does in Arrowhead against the reigning AFC-champion Chiefs this weekend. So far, Allen’s victories are all against non-playoff teams: Miami, Washington, and Houston. There’s better value to be had on this list.
Justin Herbert +800 (Last week: +1100)
The reigning Rookie of the Year has wasted no time incorporating himself firmly into the MVP conversation. Herbert has remarkable poise in the pocket at his age, and he spreads the ball out to open receivers regardless of where they’re listed on the depth chart. He also balls out when the lights are brightest—he now has 10 touchdown passes in three total primetime games over the course of his young career. Entering Week 5, Herbs has nine TDs, a 68.9 percent completion rate, 1,1178 pass yards (294.5 per game), and a 100.1 QB rating. I’m not entirely on-board the Herbs for MVP campaign—veterans or super-athletes tend to be better bets this day and age—but I would understand if you hitched your wagons to this young maestro of the pocket.
Tom Brady +1000 (Last week: +800)
Hey, everyone—the GOAT moved from No. 3 to No. 6—and from +800 to +1000—on the MVP odds boards! Brady struggled to connect with his receivers last week in his first visit back to Foxboro against his former team. This seems like a perfect time to jump on the Brady train—the emotions were high last week, the rain was pouring down, and Bill Belichick knows how to defend Brady more than any other coach in the NFL. The 44-year-old and three-time MVP still has the best all-around offense in the NFC, and he’s a fantastic bet to break his own record for oldest NFL player to ever win MVP.
Image Credit: Imagn