2022 Las Vegas Raiders Odds, Schedule, & Fantasy Football Team Preview
Hello Grinders and welcome back to the 2022 NFL team from previews. In this article we’ll be digging into the Las Vegas Raiders from a betting and fantasy perspective. If I could sum up Vegas’s 2022 season outlook in a GIF, it would be Robin Williams hugging Matt Damon from Good Will Hunting telling him it’s not his fault. Let me explain below…
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2022 Las Vegas Raiders Schedule, Lines, and Best Bets
Projected Odds, derived & modified from data originally published by Sean Koerner here.
Win Total and Total Games Favored:
8.5 (-120) / 8 Games Favored ( 1 Big Favorites / 1 Big Dogs)
Las Vegas is favored to win eight games, and while they do have some presumed soft matchups (HOU, SEA, JAX) overall, this is not an advantageous schedule. The Raiders are in arguably the toughest division in the NFL, and according to Sharp Football Analysis they have the 3rd toughest projected strength of schedule. It’s not that I think the Raiders are especially bad, but that doesn’t mean they aren’t the worst team in their division.
Best Bet: – UNDER 8.5 WINS, BetMGM
I like both DEN and LAC to hit over their win total, so math suggests someone has to be taking some Ls. Again, I’m going to lean on their division and schedule here as the Raiders are most likely a middle of the road team stuck with an unfavorable schedule. Additionally, Vegas had a fair bit of turnover. Former NE OC and Denver HC Josh McDaniels is the new Head Coach and outside of Hunter Renfrow, it’s basically an entirely new WR core. Learning a new coach’s scheme and developing timing with new receivers doesn’t happen overnight. As far as the defense, sure, they signed FA Chandler Jones, but they are still expected to be weak on the interior of the line. Even more alarming is having a secondary unit ranked 29th by PFF which doesn’t bode well when Russell Wilson, Patrick Mahomes, and Justin Herbert are in your division. I don’t think this ends well for Vegas.
Las Vegas Raiders Props
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Favorite Prop: Josh Jacobs UNDER 750.5 yards
This number may appear a little low, but keeping with my overall team theme I’m just not terribly optimistic about Jacobs. When analyzing o-lines, PFF put Vegas in a tier deemed “problematic” and ranked them the 29th best overall unit entering the season. In the previous 3 seasons Jacobs had a carry share between 66%-69% which suggests optimism, but I think there are multiple reasons to suspect his production will dip. 1) This is a new coaching regime. They might not value Jacobs as much as the previous decision makers. 2) The running back room is pretty crowded including their 2nd highest pick in the previous draft (Zamir White, RD 4). 3) Vegas will be more likely to be playing catchup as opposed to grinding out the clock on the ground. 4) Potentially most alarming is that Vegas declined to exercise Jacobs’ contract option, making it very likely he’ll be an unrestricted free agent next offseason. Add it all up and I’m bearish on Jacobs.
Las Vegas Raiders Fantasy Football Projections
Team Rankings and Ratings
Offense Ranks:Rank 15/ Average Rush / Strong Pass/ Rank 15 Points For)
Defense Ranks:Rank 25/ Average Rush / Average pass / Rank 3 Points Allowed)
Opponent Strength – Rushing:6 difficult vs. rush. 5 soft vs. rush.
Opponent Strength – Passing:6 difficult vs. pass. 6 soft vs. pass.
Games stacks is what happens in Vegas. I’ll be happy to pair LV opponents with some Raider pieces in DFS lineups, but a rough offensive line paired with a shaky defense makes Raiders games an obvious target. The Raiders should have enough offense to punch back and keep opponents from pumping the brakes thus making their games appealing from a fantasy perspective.
Las Vegas Raiders Top Fantasy Football Plays & Picks
Noteworthy Depth Chart
QB: Derek Carr – Underdog Rank: 111 (ADP 107 / -3.6% ADP Gap)
RB: Josh Jacobs – Underdog Rank: 92 (ADP 60 / -34.78% ADP Gap)
RB: Zamir White – Underdog Rank: 165 (ADP 209 / 26.67% ADP Gap)
WR: Davante Adams – Underdog Rank: 7 (ADP 11 / 57.14% ADP Gap)
WR: Hunter Renfrow – Underdog Rank: 66 (ADP 78 / 18.18% ADP Gap)
WR: Mack Hollins – Underdog Rank: Not Ranked
TE: Darren Waller – Underdog Rank: 45 (ADP 43 / -4.44% ADP Gap)
*Note: Premium Subscribers can find updated rankings for Underdog Fantasy in the content schedule here.
New Additions of Note: Davante Adams, Keelan Cole, Demarcus Robinson, Mack Hollins, Zamir White, Brandon Bolden, Chandler Jones
Departures of Note: Zay Jones, Bryan Edwards, DeSean Jackson, Peyton Barber
While I’m not optimistic about Vegas’s chances from a winning games perspective, they should absolutely be involved in multiple shootouts and offer some fantasy goodness. Derek Carr threw for 4800+ yards last season but did not have one game where he threw more than 2 TDs. Another knock on Carr is that he offers very little on the ground so he can’t bail you out with his legs. This is not to say he lacks big game upside, but when considering DFS games stacks my first instinct would be leaning Vegas skill players over Carr.
If I wasn’t clear about it earlier I am not optimistic about Josh Jacobs. Ditto for basically the entire run game but if you insist on a flyer from the currently cluttered backfield give me the rookie in Zamir White (RB63 on Underdog).
It took me long enough to get me to get the biggest WR acquisition in the offseason in Davantre Adams. Yes, I know Carr was his college QB at Fresno State, but I just can’t see him duplicating his completely insane run with Aaron Rodgers. He’ll have some ceiling games but I don’t love his current Underdog ADP (11.2/WR5). The presence of Adams likely hurts his ceiling but I prefer Hunter Renfrow who almost doubled his previous career high in receptions last season (103) when considering his current Underdog ADP (82.1/WR41).
The hope is that Darren Waller can bounce back from an injury plagued year last season. If you are stacking against the shaky Vegas D, Waller will make for a fine run back play. Garbage points count too!
Image Credit: Imagn