Lessons Learned the Hard Way: Strategy Talk and Week 10 Matchups
I don’t know what it is about Monday night games, but I just can’t seem to find any luck. Two weeks ago I had Phillip Rivers and Ryan Mathews and all I needed was for them to have a decent game and I would have had a great week. Rivers ended up throwing two picks and fumbled the game away, while Ryan Mathews got hurt right before he got a chance to score. After the game, I immediately regretted the decision to take a star QB and a star RB from the same team. It just doesn’t make sense strategy wise to take two guys from the same team that each cost $15,000 when they both compete for points. Taking a QB/WR combo is much different because they work together and can both score points at the same time.
Fast forward to last Monday night and while I thought about taking Michael Vick and Lesean McCoy, I learned my lesson the week before so I switched out McCoy for Matt Forte. This way my QB and RB aren’t taking away points from each other. Once again, I was sitting pretty heading into Monday night and all I needed was an average night from both of my guys. But the fantasy football gods rained down on me again and of the 6 touchdowns scored in the game, Vick and Forte combined for 0. But there is a silver lining here because I have learned another lesson: don’t take Monday night players just because you want to still have players on your team for the Monday night game. Pick your team regardless of when they play. To recap:
1) Try to stay away from expensive QB/RB combos from the same team. If they have a good matchup, then it’s usually safe to assume that one of the two will have a good game, but they will be competing for the same points. However, if you can find cheaper combo’s such as Rivers/Tolbert last week, then this rule doesn’t apply because you didn’t need huge games out of both of them.
2) Don’t fall into the trap of picking players based on when they will play. I know for a fact that many of you (myself included) will want to pick players from the Chargers/Raiders game just so we can watch them on Thursday night. Try to pick your team before you look at the schedule and then if you have players in the Thursday or Monday night games, then great, and if not, then don’t change your team.
These two rules are general rules and can still be used with your other strategy you are currently using to pick your team each week. All I know is that I have learned the hard way, so as a fellow grinder, I thought I would pass on my advice.
Each Thursday I typically like to write about matchups. The NFL is all about matchups and each week I like to give my thoughts on good matchups based on players that are going against defenses that give up the most points to certain positions. Here are five QB, RB, & WR’s that on paper, should be in line for good games relative to their respective salary:
Week 10 Value Plays: QB, RB, and WR
| Position | Player | Opponent | Opp. Rank | DS Salary | FD Salary | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| QB | John Beck | Miami Dolphins | 31st | 9413 | 6700 | His salary is so low that he will only need an average game to be worth taking. |
| QB | Matthew Stafford | Chicago Bears | 23rd | 15304 | 8600 | The Bears had trouble with Stafford to Calvin the first time and they will again. |
| QB | Matt Ryan | New Orleans Saints | 20th | 14260 | 8000 | This game has the highest Over/Under on the board this week which means points will be scored. |
| QB | Tony Romo | Buffalo Bills | 18th | 14630 | 8200 | You never know what to expect from Romo especially with Miles Austin out, but I still like Romo this week. |
| QB | Tim Tebow | Kansas City Chiefs | 17th | 14353 | 8200 | Denver is back on the bandwagon and don’t look now but Tebow could be 3-1 as a starter. |
| Position | Player | Opponent | Opp. Rank | DS Salary | FD Salary | Note |
| RB | Maurice Jones-Drew | Indianapolis Colts | 31st | 15153 | 8600 | The Jags will go to MJD early and often but his value this week all depends on if he can get in the endzone. |
| RB | Willis McGahee | Kansas City Chiefs | 27th | 11993 | 6700 | McGahee should be in for a good game and he is a steal for that price on FanDuel. |
| RB | Frank Gore | New York Giants | 23rd | 13491 | 8800 | If the Niners are going to win this one they are going to have to pound the ball and play tough D. |
| RB | Steven Jackson | Cleveland Browns | 18th | 13742 | 8200 | Steven Jackson is about all the Rams have that’s going good for them. |
| RB | Lesean McCoy | Arizona Cardinals | 17th | 18011 | 9700 | I’m expecting a huge game from the Eagles this week with McCoy getting at least two TD’s. |
| Position | Player | Opponent | Opp. Rank | DS Salary | FD Salary | Note |
| WR | Jeremy Kerly | New England Patriots | 32nd | 2741 | 4700 | Kerley is getting more targets each week. His FD salary is too high but on DS he is a great value play. |
| WR | Torrey Smith | Seattle Seahawks | 22nd | 7423 | 5600 | This young stud torched the league’s best passing defense last week, another good sleeper. |
| WR | Dez Bryant | Buffalo Bills | 21st | 11398 | 7000 | With Austin out, Dez is the number one guy. His numbers will show that this weekend. |
| WR | Laurent Robinson | Buffalo Bills | 21st | 7061 | 5300 | I’m a fan of the Romo, Dez, & Robinson combo this week. Too much value too ignore. |
| WR | Calvin Johnson | Chicago Bears | 17th | 17069 | 9100 | I expect a similar line to last time he played the Bears: 130 yards and a TD. |
Also, check my RotoGrinders blog for my Week 10 Value Plays!
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About the Writer: Derek ‘Notorious’ Farnsworth has been playing fantasy sports ever since he could walk. He loves sports so much he swears his first words were “Michael Jordan.” He recently graduated with a Master’s degree from the University of Utah and is excited for their entrance into the PAC-12. He was introduced to daily fantasy sports last year by clicking on one of Draftstreet’s famous referee ads, and quickly climbed the RotoGrinders Rankings into the Top 25. He also loves betting on sports and the occasional craps table.