Levitan's Leverage: Week 14

by AdamLevitan Last Updated 2014-12-12 00:09:51

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There is going to be a lot of chasing going on in Week 14. Everyone is going to try to get back on Tre Mason, Kenny Stills, DeAndre Hopkins, Rams D/ST and recreate the magic that was Week 13. Don’t take the bait, especially in tournament lineups. A surefire way to field a negative-EV lineup is to make a team using last week’s heroes. Not only are they often poor bets to duplicate success, but their price has risen dramatically and their ownership percentages will be inflated.

The point of this column is to use the news, snap counts, usage and trends to both be a little contrarian and avoid whiffs. All comments refer to FanDuel pricing.

FADES

1. Colin Kaepernick, QB, 49ers

The Raiders got up for that Week 12 Thursday night island game against the Chiefs, earning their first win. They predictably came out flat the following week and got smoked by the Rams 52-0. I’d bet on the Raiders yo-yo-ing back to a big performance this week for the equivalent of their Super Bowl, a matchup with the crosstown rival 49ers. The team has already announced there will be extra security in the stadium as they prepare for a more hostile than usual environment.

Colin Kaepernick

So we have a Raiders team I expect to be highly motivated and focused against a Niners offense that is inconsistent at best and bad at worst – in a game with an over/under of just 40.5. Over the last five weeks, San Francisco is averaging a painful 14.6 points per game. Lacking any semblance of a deep threat, Colin Kaepernick hasn’t topped 15 FanDuel points in a game (the amount he needs to pay off his $7200 price in cash) since Week 6. I don’t expect Keap to suddenly pop off in this one.

2. Tre Mason, RB, Rams

I do not like this spot for the Rams. Coming off a 52-0 bludgeoning of the Raiders last week and an upset of the Broncos two weeks before that, they’re the talk of the NFL as the “best” 5-7 team we’ve seen in a long time. We’ll see. Now going on the road to dysfunctional Washington, they were installed as a meager 2-point favorite. And even though the entire world is betting the Rams, the line has only gone to -3. The Redskins have been playing excellent run defense all season, permitting the fourth-fewest fantasy points per game to opposing running backs. The way to attack Washington is through the air, an aspect of the game Tre Mason is getting better at but it’s not his strong suit. Given a price that’s now up at $7200, I’d rather save with Andre Williams ($6500) or spend up for C.J. Anderson ($7800).

3. Ryan Fitzpatrick, QB, Texans

This should be a no-brainer. We never want to be a week late to a party, especially when that party had just 11 passing TDs in his first nine games and his FanDuel price has risen by $2200 up to $7200. Ryan Fitzpatrick now has to travel to Jacksonville to face a Jags team feeling some momentum off a win. We’ve seen this Jags defense step up a bit since their Week 11 bye, holding Andrew Luck to a season-low 15.08 FD points and then Eli Manning to 9.88. After having Fitzpatrick in 100 percent of cash lineups last week, I’ll have zero of him in any format this week.

CONTRARIAN GPP STACK

Peyton Manning and Julius Thomas

Julius Thomas

This is the third time this season Peyton Manning has had a tough matchup at home and the early returns on his GPP ownership percentage were at less than 4 percent. The first time was Week 5 against Arizona and he went for 32.96 FanDuel points. The second time was Week 12 against Miami and he posted 28.08 FanDuel points. Note that those are two of his highest-scoring weeks of the season. Now Manning is at home against a Bills defense with strong corner play that is far more vulnerable against the run than the pass – seemingly setting up for another C.J. Anderson game. But with everyone gravitating toward shinier objects like Aaron Rodgers and Drew Brees, I’ll gladly pivot to Peyton here in GPPs. A way to make it even more contrarian is to stack him with Julius Thomas, who has a far better matchup than Demaryius Thomas or Emmanuel Sanders anyway. Thomas figures to be lightly owned as he comes off an ankle sprain – something that has depressed his price down to $6600 as well — $1100 less than Rob Gronkowski.

After Ryan Fitzpatrick’s outburst last week and general tight pricing across all positions, the public will be looking to recreate Week 13 by going cheap at quarterback this week. It makes me want to “pay up to be contrarian” even more at quarterback in GPPs this week.

SITUATIONS TO CAPITALIZE ON

1. Charles Johnson’s perfect spot against the Jets

I really like this spot for the Vikings at home against the Jets. Monday night against the Dolphins was like Custer’s Last Stand for Rex Ryan’s bunch, as they put everything they had into a national TV game and still came up empty. Now they’re on a short week and have to go on the road for a lame duck coach – the white flag has been raised and it’s time to mail it in. So for me, the question isn’t if the Vikings are going to fill up the box score. It’s how.

That’s where Charles Johnson comes in. Playing 97.4 percent of the snaps the last two weeks, OC Norv Turner came out Thursday and confirmed the obvious: Johnson has been promoted to the starting “X” job ahead of Cordarrelle Patterson. We know that the way to attack the Jets is not on the ground against a No. 3 run defense that’s given up just seven rushing TDs all year. It’s through the air against a secondary that came into Week 14 allowing the most passing TDs in the league (27). It’s a monster chance for Johnson, a 6’2/217 player with 4.4 wheels, to have a breakout game. Owners that got burned by last week’s disappointing 2-41-0 against Carolina won’t be back on him even though game flow (two special teams TDs, a big lead for much of the game) was to blame. I think Johnson ($6000) is an excellent play in cash and a perfect pivot off Kenny Stills ($6400), who will be massively owned in GPPs.

2. Josh Gordon’s slow-rising price

Josh Gordon

What would you pay for a freakishly talented wideout getting a league-leading (if he qualified) 14.5 targets per day in a home game against a Colts defense that could be without top corner Vontae Davis (concussion)? At least $9000, right? Well, Josh Gordon is still at just $8000, cheaper than Odell Beckham and only slightly more than Golden Tate ($7800) and Keenan Allen ($7600). As Chris Raybon pointed out on Twitter, Gordon’s FanDuel price got as high as $9900 last year and wasn’t under $9200 in any of the last four weeks. I’m not going to pass on this discounted price, especially as Gordon gets more and more comfortable in the scheme in his third game of the season. I’ll be sticking with Gordon even if Davis ends up clearing the protocol, as Vontae typically stays on the right side of the formation and Gordon moves around plenty.

Editor’s Note: Vontae Davis has been ruled out for Week 14.

MATCHUP TO EXPLOIT

Randall Cobb against Falcons corners other than Desmond Trufant

Quietly establishing himself as a rising star corner in the NFL, Desmond Trufant is PFF’s No. 6 overall corner on the year. He’s given up just two TDs and opposing quarterbacks have a 79.2 rating when targeting him – and he’ll be shadowing Jordy Nelson on Monday night. For more on that matchup, check out Leo Howell’s excellent film breakdown on RotoGrinders. That leaves Randall Cobb to run his routes against slot corner Josh Wilson and fringe NFL talent Robert McClain. It’s also worth noting that Cobb has out-targeted Nelson is three of the last five games and tied with him in another. So even though Jordy is more than capable of beating Trufant, Cobb has the superior matchup. He’s also $500 cheaper and will be less owned. I’ll be gravitating toward Cobb and Eddie Lacy when looking to get exposure to the Packers.

WHO I’LL HAVE MOST OF IN FANDUEL CASH GAMES