Lions vs. 49ers Betting Odds, Prediction, & Pick
Lions vs. 49ers Odds
| Lions Odds | -3.5 |
| 49ers Odds | +3.5 |
| Over/Under | 50 |
| Date | Monday, December 30, 2024 |
| Time | 8:15 PM ET |
| TV | ESPN |
Week 17 of the NFL regular season will conclude with a matchup between the Detroit Lions and San Francisco 49ers on Monday Night Football. This NFC Championship Game rematch doesn’t have the same appeal as many had hoped for, given that San Francisco was unexpectedly being eliminated from the postseason. Nonetheless, there is still plenty of talent that will be on the field tonight, which should make for an entertaining battle.
Ahead of kickoff, oddsmakers have priced the Lions as 3.5-point road favorites on the spread. The total is set at 50 points.
Let’s take a deeper look at the matchup to see where NFL bettors can find value at sportsbooks.
According to Evan Abrams of The Action Network, Dan Campbell is 49-28-1 ATS (64%) as the coach of the Dolphins and Lions – the best mark for any head coach in the Super Bowl era. In 4 years with the Lions, Campbell has led his team to a 45-20-1 ATS (69%) record, which is the best 4-year stretch for any team in the last 59+ years.
Detroit Lions Preview
What to expect from Goff, Lions offense
“This is a regular season game – one we need to win, one we want to win,” Jared Goff told the media earlier this week. His comments were echoed by Amon-Ra St. Brown, who said “I think for me personally, I want to win.” Head coach Dan Campbell added, “We’re bringing everything we have to this game… we’re going out to play and win this game out on the West Coast.”
Given that Detroit’s starting quarterback, top wide receiver, and head coach have all publicly made clear their desire to win this evening, it would be surprising to see anyone from this group sit for rest purposes, even with the Lions not needing to win tonight to still have a chance to win their division and secure home field advantage throughout the playoffs.
If the game script is a blowout in either direction, it’s possible that core members of this offense could be substituted late, but bettors should otherwise expect a normal workload from all of Detroit’s healthy starters.
Detroit defense banged up heading into Monday Night Football
Detroit still has the opportunity to earn the No. 1 seed in the NFC playoffs this season, which is even more remarkable when considering how many pieces they have lost on the defensive side of the ball along the way.
EDGE Aidan Hutchinson, who led Detroit in sacks in 2023 and had 7.5 sacks in only 5 games to begin 2024, hasn’t played since Week 6. EDGE Marcus Davenport has played in only 2 games. LB Alex Anzalone led the Lions in tackles last season but hasn’t played since Week 11. LB Malcolm Rodriguez, who had taken over a starter’s role midseason, hasn’t played since Week 13. The secondary unit has also been impacted, with CB Carlton Davis now on injured reserve.
Incredibly, the Lions’ defense still ranks 5th in EPA/play and 3rd in success rate since Week 7, all games played without their top pass rusher Hutchinson. The larger question is how this unit will hold up now that they are down a pair of key linebackers and arguably their best coverage cornerback.
Detroit has been vulnerable over the middle of the field in recent weeks, allowing 41 receiving yards to TE Tucker Kraft, 53 receiving yards to TE Dalton Kincaid, and 42 receiving yards to TE Dawson Knox in the last 3 weeks. During that time period, the Lions’ defense has regressed to 31st in EPA/play and 25th in success rate, struggling against both the run and the pass.
San Francisco 49ers Preview
Will Purdy’s struggles against top teams continue?
Since Christmas Day 2023, Brock Purdy is only 1-8 ATS against teams with a winning record, with his lone cover coming on Thursday Night Football against the Seahawks earlier this fall. In 8 games this season against teams that currently have a winning record, Purdy has thrown 10 touchdowns against 6 interceptions. He has a 92.2 passer rating in those contests. In his other 6 games played, Purdy owns a 7 to 4 touchdown-to-interception ratio and has posted a 97.3 passer rating. Notably, his turnover-worthy play rate is significantly lower against teams with a losing record as well.
Since Week 14, with RB Christian McCaffrey out for the season, Purdy ranks 13th in EPA/play, 17th in success rate, and 24th in CPOE among qualified quarterbacks. This offense is simply not performing anywhere near where they were at this time a year ago. Making matters worse, San Francisco will likely be without 3 starting offensive lineman on Monday, with LT Trent Williams on injured reserve, LG Aaron Banks ruled out, and RT Colton McKivitz listed as questionable after not practicing at all this week.
Greenlaw ruled OUT
LB Dre Greenlaw returned from injured reserve to play 30 snaps in Week 15 but played only 4 snaps in Week 16 and has since been ruled out for tonight’s matchup against the Lions. Greenlaw was 2nd on the 49ers defense last season with 120 tackles, adding 1.5 sacks and 4 pass deflections as well.
There are other question marks for San Francisco’s defense tonight as well, with CB Charvarius Ward ruled out due to a personal matter and S Ji’Ayir Brown not practicing on Saturday due to an ankle issue.
The 49ers defense ranks 20th in EPA/play and 21st in success rate since their bye week and have been particularly vulnerable to opposing ground attacks during that stretch. They could have their hands full with Jahmyr Gibbs this evening.
Lions vs. 49ers Prediction
By all accounts, Detroit is going to treat this game the same as they have treated their first 15 games this season despite the fact that they have nothing to gain in the standings from tonight’s outcome. If that is the case, the Lions are grossly mispriced as 3.5-point favorites tonight against a 49ers team that has seemingly checked out for the season and could be missing nearly 10 starters on Monday Night Football.
If Detroit is being genuine in their comments about wanting to play this game like normal, they are likely deserving of being much larger favorites, even with all of their injuries on the defensive side of the ball. I have more interest in alt lines on the spread tonight than I do playing Detroit at (-3.5). This one could get ugly if Jared Goff and company are truly going to suit up for the entirety of this contest.
PICK: Lions -14 (+354, DraftKings)
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