Primetime Parlay: Lions vs. Chiefs Same Game Parlay Picks
Last year, ScoresAndOdds’ ParlayIQ tool helped us create a variety of fun same-game parlay tickets throughout the NFL season. Through simulations, the tool examines the potential value various betting lines offer on sports betting sites. Along with the simulation, we will examine stats, roster news, trends, player props, and betting odds across sports betting sites to find the best price for our same-game parlay ticket. For this article, we build a Thursday Night Football same-game parlay for the opening contest of the NFL season — the Detroit Lions versus the Kansas City Chiefs.
Are you ready for some football? The NFL season opens up with the defending champion Kansas City Chiefs hosting the Detroit Lions. In what appears to project as a high-scoring affair, the Lions will look to keep pace with the high-octane Chiefs’ offense that might be without Travis Kelce. Will the champs open the season with another victory, or will the Detroit Lions start positively in what many pundits think will be a playoff-bound season?
Chiefs vs. Lions Same Game Parlay
At this writing, the Chiefs are 4.5-point favorites at home against the Detroit Lions. The betting line shifted a couple of points with news of Travis Kelce potentially missing tonight’s game. Kelce seems to have a bone bruise and a pain management issue but could be held out of tonight’s game, given the extended break ahead of Kansas City’s second game in Week 2. FanDuel Sportsbook lists the implied game total at 53.5 points — another decrease with the pending Travis Kelce injury news.
While we are not sure how the Chiefs will look with some changes on the offensive side of the football such as the loss of JuJu Smith-Schuster and the lack of Travis Kelce, we can probably assume we see a very similar approach to offense by Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes — score in bunches. The Chiefs led the league in points per game last season (29.2) while allowing a much better 22.2 points per game on defense.
The Lions were the perfect team for DFS lineups in that the main pieces contributed and the defense was horrendous. The Lions scored 26.6 points per game (5th) but allowed a 28th-worst 25.1 points per game on defense. They allowed 7.5 yards per pass attempt on defense and were not much better against the run.
Meanwhile, the Chiefs’ defense, while not completely stout, was able to do more than enough to make the high-scoring offense very successful. The Chiefs’ defense allowed a far less alarming 6.1 yards per pass attempt. The Chiefs want to throw and can give up some points. Kansas City will not run the ball very often and instead will use the short-passing game as an extension of a rushing attack — rushing only 24.7 times per game in 2022.
Aside from Travis Kelce, Jameson Williams will miss this contest and several others as he is suspended to start the season. The Lions will await the full potential of their offense for some time again this season as Amon-Ra St. Brown seems likely to be heavily featured in tonight’s contest.
If the Chiefs are able to get out to a lead, with or without Travis Kelce, the Detroit coaching staff might need to throw the ball far more often than they had hoped to. Amon-Ra St. Brown, Marvin Jones, and Josh Reynolds will receive the lion’s share (sorry) of the targets while rookie Sam LaPorta figures in for some work.
Without Kelce, the Chiefs could lean on their rushing attack. If not, the receivers will likely be featured more heavily than backup tight end Noah Gray. With this in mind, let’s take a look at our first same-game parlay ticket on FanDuel.
Same Game Parlay Picks for TNF
Over 53.5 Points (-105)
If Travis Kelce is indeed announced out of tonight’s game, the game total could potentially drop a bit further. That said, if for some strange reason, the star tight end suits up, we could see a one-to-two-point boost to this line. I don’t think the wait is worth it, and I would rather take my chances on the current number.
The Chiefs played in a high-scoring affair a few seasons ago to open the season and playing against a crummy Lions defense should not strike fear in our hearts. Even without Travis Kelce, the Chiefs are equipped with plenty of weapons and the best quarterback in the league. Look for Patrick Mahomes to move the ball at well against the porous Detroit defense.
With an explosive offense on the other side, we could see a back-and-forth affair that lights up the scoresheet. I am going to open up my ticket with my fingers crossed for opening night fireworks.
Skyy Moore Over 45.5 Receiving Yards
Make it make sense, Joe! If we expect the game to be high-scoring, then one or more players will need to put together big performances. At the moment, our NFL stat projections peg Skyy Moore for 43.7 yards. That median projection factors in Travis Kelce for more than 5 targets and more than 50 yards.
If Kelce sits, which we accept as our premise with the game total sticking at 53.5 points, then we should probably assume that Skyy Moore sees an additional 1-2 opportunities. In the Kansas City offense, those additional opportunities could mean a whole lot more than just a few yards. With a Kelce-less Chiefs’ offense in mind, I am going to include the over on Moore’s receiving yards tonight.
Amon-Ra St. Brown Over 77.5 Receiving Yards
We have St. Brown pegged for 77.5 receiving yards but I am not one for fences. I am going to give the nod to the over with the script I’ve created for this evening’s game. While I know under is typically the more appropriate play when player props are given time to marinate, I am here looking for a fun recreational ticket to fight sleep with before work tomorrow. As the young kids said when my teaching career began, YOLO!
St. Brown is going to bogard most of the targets for the Detroit Lions this evening. If we think the Chiefs are moving the ball at will, then the Lions will need to answer back with the vertical passing game. St. Brown will find space and likely be a useful safety valve for Jared Goff throughout the contest. Further, St. Brown can still flourish if the Lions jump ahead to a lead.
With only Marvin Jones and Josh Reynolds being threats to his workload at the WR position, I think double-digit targets are well within the range of outcomes for St. Brown this evening in what could be the beginning to a breakout season.
Jahmyr Gibbs Over 31.5 Receiving Yards
In another YOLO moment (thanks 2011), I am going to take the over on the ever-talented Jahmry Gibbs receiving total this evening. While the Lions replaced Jamaal Williams with David Montgomery for the smashmouth, early-down back role, Jahmyr Gibbs will feature as the highlight-waiting-to-happen for the Detroit Lions.
If our game script suggests that the Lions will need to keep pace with the Chiefs, Gibbs could see a few additional targets out of the backfield this evening. Gibbs, the Alabama alum, comes with plenty of expectation in the fantasy football community and finds himself in a really good matchup for receiving backs in his first NFL game. Regardless of the efficacy of the Kansas City defense, Gibbs should receive more than enough work to exceed this total.
We aren’t getting the best number, but we are building a fun ticket. Don’t load up your entire bankroll on this one.
Lions vs. Chiefs Parlay Odds
- Over 53.5 Points
- Skyy Moore Over 45.5 Receiving Yards
- Amon-Ra St. Brown Over 77.5 Receiving Yards
- Jahmyr Gibbs Over 31.5 Receiving Yards
Here is a look at our ticket on FanDuel Sportsbook:
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Parlay Odds: +977
Risk: 1/2 unit to win 4.89 units
Good luck with all of your bets and plays this evening. Share your parlays with me on Twitter and any other plays you are making for the game. First touchdown scorers? Touchdowns? DFS lineups? Thanks for reading.