Primetime Parlay: Lions vs. Packers Same Game Parlay Picks
Last year, ScoresAndOdds’ ParlayIQ tool helped us create a variety of fun same-game parlay tickets throughout the NFL season. Through simulations, the tool examines the potential value various betting lines offer on sports betting sites. Along with the simulations, we will examine stats, roster news, trends, player props, and betting odds across sports betting sites to find the best price for our same game parlay ticket. For this article, we build a Thursday Night Football same-game parlay for the Detroit Lions versus the Green Bay Packers.
Week 4 in the NFL kicks off with an NFC North matchup between the Detroit Lions and the Green Bay Packers. Jordan Love has Packers fans excited with a few early-season performances that delivered above expectations. Jared Goff and company continue to generate excitement on offense. With both teams sitting at 2-1, we should be in for a treat. We will start with betting odds, injuries, and relevant stats prior to building a same-game parlay ticket on FanDuel Sportsbook.
Lions vs. Packers Same Game Parlay
The Lions are 2.5-point road favorites in Lambeau Field. The Packers and Lions opened the season at 2-1, with the Lions losing an overtime thriller against the Seahawks. An offense without Jameson Williams still looks very dynamic as Detroit continues to flash as a high-upside, efficient offense with Jared Goff as the trigger man.
Jordan Love has played very well as the heir apparent to Aaron Rodgers. Love has made plays when needed and bring an unsustainable touchdown rate to tonight’s contest. That said, the Packers will return both Christian Watson and Aaron Jones to the fold. This should only help Jordan Love as both players represent the most dynamic threats for the Green Bay offense. Watson will likely be on a pitch count as he returns from injury.
The Packers will play without Jaire Alexander and two starting offensive linemen — David Bakhtiari and Elgton Jenkins. With Aiden Hutchinson leading the NFL in QB hurries, this could be a concern for the Green Bay offense.
The Lions will return David Montgomery and Taylor Decker. Montgomery will slot back into the lead back slot while Jahmyr Gibbs will move back to a backup, pass-catching role. As the season progresses, you would like to think that Gibbs would see more work but… D’Andre Swift and all.
The money on the spread sits at about 50/50 per SAO while a bulk of money wager on the implied game total of 45.5 sits on the under. 81% of money bet on the total thinks this game goes below the number.
Detroit sits tied for fifth in yards per play on offense this season with a strong 8.0 yards per passing attempt. Jared Goff is very efficient with his weapons Amon-Ra St. Brown and rookie Sam LaPorta while rarely ceding turnovers. The play of the defense might be more noteworthy though, as the Lions’ front has only allowed 3.2 yards per rush this season.
The Packers have only attempted 32 pass attempts per game this season, but that number might have to go up given the opposing defense. With Watson and Jones back, Love might be given more liberties to move the ball through the air against the Lions. For Green Bay, the pass rush has been exceptional — posting an 8.04% sack rate early in the season. Against an offense as well-oiled as the Lions, Green Bay will need to put pressure on Jared Goff.
Both defenses have been pretty good thus far, while both offenses have been very steady. This should be a good one in the NFC North. Let’s build an SGP to sweat alongside tonight’s contest.
Same Game Parlay Picks for TNF
- Detroit Moneyline (-134)
- LaPorta Under 44.5 Receiving Yards
- Reed Over 35.5 Receiving Yards
- Doubs Under 38.5 Receiving Yards
Detroit Moneyline (-134)
ParlayIQ features over 4,900 simulations of tonight’s game. In 55% of those simulations, the Detroit Lions are victorious. I agree.
The Lions beat the Packers to send the Seattle Seahawks to the playoffs last season in Lambeau Field. While Lambeau Field is surely a tough place to play, the Lions are a better team with far more experience on the offensive side of the football. Jared Goff protects the football and is surrounded by dynamic weapons. Amon-Ra St. Brown continues to play with a chip on his shoulder while the injection of youth in Sam LaPorta and Jahmyr Gibbs gives the Detroit offense an additional dynamic level.
Jordan Love continues to play well but is scoring at a much higher rate than his statistics would suggest. I like the Lions and will open with a win on the road for Detroit.
Sam LaPorta Under 44.5 Receiving Yards
Sam LaPorta broke out last week in a big way — converting 11 Jared Goff targets to 8 catches and 84 yards. LaPorta scored his first touchdown in the NFL and produced his second game, where he averaged north of 10 yards per catch. The rookie seems pretty legit.
That said, I am going to pump the breaks on LaPorta duplicating the output. Amon-Ra St. Brown was relatively quiet in last week’s game and the return of David Montgomery could mean the Lions focus on the rushing game. ParlayIQ seems to think LaPorta will stay below this number as well.
I hope I am wrong as LaPorta is one of the main pieces in my fantasy lineup. For tonight, though, we ride with ParlayIQ.
Jayden Reed Over 35.5 Receiving Yards
With Christian Watson returning from injury, we can presume someone on the Packers will lose targets. With many young players emerging over the first few weeks as weapons for Jordan Love, the offense will likely be a bit more concentrated on key playmakers.
While ParlayIQ finds this outcome favorable as well, I find myself believing in Jayden Reed much more than the other targets in the Green Bay offense. Consistently earning targets, Reed feels like a big play waiting to happen. As will be discussed in a moment, I think other receivers will lose some work to both Watson and Aaron Jones.
Reed has gone over this number in all three games. I don’t think he will lose his role when the other playmakers return.
Romeo Doubs Under 38.5 Receiving Yards
Romeo Doubs, however, feels like a candidate to lose work. Doubs and Watson came into the NFL together in 2022, and Watson became the budding star as Doubs slid into the background. Doubs produced a 78-yard performance last weekend but needed 12 targets to reach that point. Doubs only caught five of the targets — a level of efficiency that doesn’t seem key to a successful offensive game plan.
Somebody needs to suffer when the stars come back. I am willing to wager that it’s Doubs.
Lions vs. Packers Parlay Odds
- Detroit Moneyline (-134)
- Sam LaPorta Under 44.5 Receiving Yards
- Jayden Reed Over 35.5 Receiving Yards
- Romeo Doubs Under 38.5 Receiving Yards
ParlayIQ suggests the following price for tonight’s SGP:
Here is a look at FanDuels’ offering:
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Parlay Odds: +937
Risk: 1/2 unit to win 4.68 units
Good luck with all of your bets and plays this evening. Share your parlays with me on Twitter. First touchdown scorers? Touchdowns? DFS lineups? Player props? Thanks for reading.