Detroit Lions vs. Dallas Cowboys Odds, Prediction, & Pick
Lions vs. Cowboys Odds
| Lions Odds | +5.5 |
| Cowboys Odds | -5.5 |
| Over/Under | 52.5 |
| Date | Sat, Dec. 30 |
| Time | 8:15 p.m. |
| TV | ESPN |
Tonight, Jared Goff and the Detroit Lions will visit Dak Prescott and the Dallas Cowboys at Jerry World for a prime time NFC showdown on ESPN. Entering play, the Lions are 11-4 and have clinched their division. The Cowboys, 10-5, have clinched a playoff berth, but still have their sights set on potentially usurping the Eagles for the NFC East crown. Kickoff tonight is scheduled for 8:15 p.m. ET.
Ahead of kickoff in this matchup, oddsmakers have priced the Cowboys as 5.5-point favorites on the spread. The total for this contest is set at over/under 52 points.
Let’s take a deeper look at the matchup to see where NFL bettors can find value at sportsbooks in this contest.
Detroit Lions
What to expect from Jared Goff
Jared Goff has been a top-10 quarterback this season with a healthy offensive line, but has been much closer to league average at his position when missing key players up front.
From Week 1 to Week 5, with left guard Jonah Jackson on the field, Goff ranked 7th in EPA/play and 7th in success rate among qualified signal callers. From Week 6 to Week 12, with Jackson playing only one game, Goff ranked only 14th in EPA/play and 9th in success rate. Since Jackson returned to the field in Week 13, Goff ranks 7th in EPA/play and 7th in success rate among qualified quarterbacks. Fortunately for Goff, he will have his optimal starting five on the offensive line on Saturday against the Cowboys. Detroit is 8-2 with Jackson on the field in 2023.
Detroit defense managing injury bug
On Saturday, the Lions will be without safety C.J. Gardner-Johnson and defensive tackle Alim McNeill.
Since Gardner-Johnson last played in Week 2, the Lions rank 24th in EPA/play and 23rd in success rate against the pass. They have continued to struggle in recent weeks, ranking 26th in EPA/play and 21st in success rate against the pass since Week 13.
McNeill has been one of the most well-rounded defenders in the NFL this season, ranking 4th out of 132 qualified players at his position as a run defender and 19th as a pass rusher. Nevertheless, Detroit’s run defense has performed well across their last three games without McNeill on the field, allowing only 80.7 yards per game on the ground.
Dallas Cowboys
Dak Prescott hoping for bounce-back performance
Dak Prescott appeared to be on the fast-track to win the league’s MVP award earlier this month, but back-to-back poor showings against the Bills and Dolphins have all but removed his name from the conversation. In Week 15 and Week 16, both losses, Prescott totaled only 387 passing yards and led his team to only 30 points. This was in stark contrast to his prior five games, in which the Cowboys averaged 40.2 points, with Prescott averaging 298.8 passing yards while throwing 15 touchdowns against only 1 interception.
In Week 17, Prescott returns home, where he has been at his best in 2023. He has a favorable matchup against a weak Detroit secondary unit, and the expectation is that his starting left tackle, Tyron Smith, will be back on the field after not playing last weekend against the Dolphins. All signs point to a strong offensive showing from Prescott and company this evening.
Can Dallas stop the run?
Though the Cowboys have a reputation as one of the better defenses in the NFL, the reality is that they have been extremely vulnerable to opposing ground attacks since losing linebacker Leighton Vander Esch in Week 5. Since that point, Dallas ranks 20th in EPA/play and 31st in success rate against the run. During that stretch, they have allowed 50 rushing yards to Miles Sanders, 57 rushing yards to Chuba Hubbard, 53 rushing yards to Brian Robinson, 60 rushing yards to Zach Charbonnet, and 179 rushing yards to James Cook. They have a tough test tonight against the Lions, which lead the NFL in adjusted line yards this fall.
Lions vs. Cowboys – Picks & Predictions
In the last seven games that Jonah Jackson has played, the Lions have scored 34 points, 42, points, 41 points, 33 points, 13 points, 42 points, and 30 points. The Cowboys have seemingly been an elite team at home this year, but the reality is they have not played any strong opponents at Jerry World in 2023. The only sample we have of the Cowboys against top-tier NFL teams this year includes a 42-10 loss to the 49ers, a 31-10 loss to the Bills, and a 22-20 loss to the Dolphins. At a minimum, Detroit should be able to put points on the board in this contest.
LEAN: Lions Team Total, Over 22.5 Points (-140, Fanatics Sportsbook)
PICK: Lions Team Total, Over 23.5 Points (-108, DraftKings Sportsbook)
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