LoL Fantasy Grind Down: Thursday, March 17th

by Airbudgoldenrec Last Updated 2016-03-18 02:16:48

Welcome to the RotoGrinders League of Legends Grind Down. In this all-encompassing preview of the upcoming EULCS action, every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts.

We provide Defense versus Position data for each team, along with the RotoGrinders original stat, Pace.

Every game is also broken down, providing an overview of the game and a selection of players to consider from each match

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Slate Overview

Thursday’s EU slate is highlighted by a number of probable one-sided affairs. The heavy favorites of Vitality, G2, and Fnatic will likely have smooth sailing on their course to victory. H2K and Origen are not far off from that projection but they could run into a bit more resistance than the other three teams listed previously. Because there are so many upper echelon teams facing off against bottom tier teams, stacking any of these favorites is next to impossible, especially on DraftKings. Fnatic is the most reasonably priced of all the clear cut favorites while Giants and Roccat probably provide the best value on punting a few positions to maximize return at lower priority positions like Top and Jungle. Check out the game-by-game breakdown below for more details on which players will provide the most for your lineup.

Giants Gaming vs. Origen

Giants Gaming							Origen
			Record		2-12					Record		7-7
			Vegas Sprd		+367					Vegas Sprd		-500
			Avg. KP		73.3					Avg. KP		66.4
			Team Pace		0.74					Team Pace		0.84
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks							Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks
DvP Rks	Top	Jng	Mid	Supp	ADC		DvP Rks	Top	Jng	Mid	Supp	ADC
Players	Atom	BetongJocke	xPePii	GODFRED	Adryh		Players	sOAZ	Amazing	PowerOfEvil	Mithy	Zven
Opp. Season	7	7	4	3	4		Opp. Season	8	8	9	8	9

This match is just the first of many seemingly lopsided games on Thursday with Origen riding high off of a strong weekend thanks to the return of legendary mid laner, xPeke against the different, but still bad, Giants Gaming. In fact, Giants will look even more different this week following the exodus of support G0DFRED who will be replaced Hustlin, a relatively unknown player from the Spanish Challenger scene. Back to the part where xPeke returns as the hero Origen desperately needed. I was down on him last week being an unknown with absolutely zero competitive games since Worlds 2015 and while he showed up for those willing to take the risk, I’m balking on him yet again. Origen is very highly priced on DraftKings so it’s a fade for me and maybe even a slight lean towards punting with the Giants players that showed up last week. That is to say they showed up more through the eye test rather than in the stat sheet. Giants Gaming have been a team to comfortably stack against all season but Origen players have too many question marks to pony up a large portion of your salary pool to get them. If I do punt with the Giants, I’m looking towards the top lane with SmittyJ up against SoaZ. Don’t look at the numbers for this guy last week because they weren’t pretty but if you saw the game he made some clever mechanical plays even in a few 2v1 scenarios that make me think he can go toe-to-toe with SoaZ. His dirt cheap salary on both sites gives him a good shot at a decent return on investment. It’s a risk I’m willing to take if not in cash games, then definitely in tournament play. I don’t see DeSean Jackson in sight so I’m calling a punt play for the Giants.

Giants Gaming

Elite Plays

- None

Secondary Plays

-SmittyJ (DK $5,100, AD $6,300) – While no DFS player wants to hear “throw the stats out the window” I’m kinda doing so on this one. SmittyJ had scorelines last week more indicative of his team’s performance than his own. He had moderate success in NA for a very brief span and he has decent talent. SoaZ and Origen have also surrendered the 2nd most kills in the region to opposing top laners. It’s a punt play for sure, but it’s at a position I’m willing to punt in a decent matchup.

Origen

Elite Plays

- None

Secondary Plays

- None

Elements vs. Fnatic

Elements							Fnatic
			Record		4-10					Record		8-6
			Vegas Sprd		+304					Vegas Sprd		-400
			Avg. KP		68.9					Avg. KP		63.6
			Team Pace		0.73					Team Pace		0.80
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks							Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks
DvP Rks	Top	Jng	Mid	Supp	ADC		DvP Rks	Top	Jng	Mid	Supp	ADC
Players	Steve	Gilius	Eika	sprattel	Mr RalleZ		Players	Gamsu	Spirit	Febiven	Klaj	Rekkles
Opp. Season	1	4	5	5	5		Opp. Season	9	9	8	9	8

Oh look another one-sided matchup on Thursday, what a surprise. This one feels even easier to call than the first with Fnatic sort-of living up to their IEM improvements and Elements struggling to deliver even against weak opponents. Despite pulling off an unlikely comeback against Unicorns of Love, Elements comes in as one of the weakest teams in the region and it’s going to be really hard for them to get anything going. Looking across the board, they don’t have a favorable matchup at any position and the mid lane is especially rough with Febiven across the rift. I’m on board with Fnatic far more than Origen this week especially with the comparable salaries for players on both sites. The key targets for me will be Febiven and Spirit for FNC and I particularly love Febiven in cash games this week. His opponent Eika, has the most deaths of all mid laners in EU with 42 while Febiven sits 3rd in kills and KDA at 52 and 5.3 respectively. Elements as a team is also surrendering the 2nd most kills to opposing mid laners in the region. Spirit will be another target for me in cash games after last week where he has 6 kills and 16 assists while falling only 3 times. He also has the highest damage % of all qualifying junglers in the region which really increases his upside and potential for a big day. While going with the bottom or top lane for Fnatic is a fine play in cash games, the safest bet for a big day lies with Febiven and Spirit.

Elements

Elite Plays

- None

Secondary Plays

-MrRalleZ (DK $6,000, AD $7,300) – While Steelback will likely be the top choice for many among the lower tier ADC’s this slate, I prefer MrRalleZ. No team is giving up more kills per game to opposing ADC’s than Fnatic and MrRalleZ is coming off of a strong 7 kill, 6 assist performance against UOL.

Fnatic

Elite Plays

-Febiven (DK $8,200, AD $8,000) – Great matchup? Check. Great player? Check. He may be at the high end as far as the salary goes but I think he will exceed value and have a huge game. If you can only afford 1 FNC player, Febiven is who you want.

-Fnatic Team (DK $5,900, AD $3,700) – Fnatic early in the season may have been a concern in this sort of matchup but the way they are playing now makes them the closest thing to a “sure-thing” on this slate.

Secondary Plays

-Spirit (DK $7,200, AD $7,800) – Spirit has been one of the major catalysts for this semi-resurgence we’ve seen since IEM began. He is now top 4 among EU junglers in both kills and assists and his kill participation has been on the rise. The only thing holding him back from being an elite play is the fact that he has shown to be far more proficient on Lee Sin than any other champion. If that champion is banned, he may drop in value but only just slightly.

H2k-Gaming vs. Unicorns of Love

H2k-Gaming							Unicorns of Love
			Record		11-3					Record		9-5
			Vegas Sprd		-340					Vegas Sprd		+264
			Avg. KP		72.6					Avg. KP		67.7
			Team Pace		0.81					Team Pace		0.89
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks							Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks
DvP Rks	Top	Jng	Mid	Supp	ADC		DvP Rks	Top	Jng	Mid	Supp	ADC
Players	Odoamne	Jankos	Ryu	VandeR	Forg1ven		Players	Vizicsacsi	loulex	Fox	Hylissang	Steeelback
Opp. Season	6	6	7	6	6		Opp. Season	3	1	1	1	1

This game is probably the featured match of the day but I’m not convinced it will live up to the hype. For daily fantasy it may however, be the most fun game of the day. The Unicorns managed to lose both games last week in a “Dignitas-esque” fashion that had many fans palming their faces. UOL had a lead at 30 minutes in each game but somehow they threw it away when it mattered most. The important thing to note is that there was solid fantasy value on both sides of those games and the up and down style that UOL plays opens the door for long games with high kill/death totals. H2K on the other hand had an efficient week against far weaker opponents and it’s tough to glean much from those performances other than the fact that H2K is one of the elite teams in the region. Odoamne in particular had a sub-par fantasy performance last week but that was primarily due to the fact that H2K steamrolled before he could amass any big numbers. This week should look differently and the focal point for both teams will be getting top laners ahead. I trust Jankos to assist in that effort far more than Loulex so I’m very comfortable with Odo in my lineups on both AD and DK. In their last meeting, Odoamne had 9 kills and 6 assists which was good for over 40 points on DraftKings.

As I said previously, there could be value on both sides of the rift in this one considering these teams are 1-2 in average game time and both sit in the top 3 in kills per game. While I struggle to accept rostering anyone against Forg1ven, Steelback looks like the best play on the UOL side as he even statistically outperformed Forg1ven in their last head-to-head matchup. The biggest gap in talent and performance for these teams in easily the jungle position and I’m staying as far as I possibly can from Loulex. By no means has he been awful, but he has only 1 kill in 4 games to Jankos’ 11 in that span. His kill participation has actually been quite good at 74% but that is still a tick below the 76% Jankos is sporting and the risk of Loulex finishing with a sub-5 point performance is an alarming one that I strongly advise avoiding even in a contrarian GPP lineup.

H2k-Gaming

Elite Plays

-Odoamne (DK $7,200, AD $7,900) – I was bullish on Odoamne last week but I’m doubling down on him for this slate. All of his underlying numbers like kill participation, KDA, and DPM are still very solid not to mention he had a monster game the last time these two teams faced off. If anything Odoamne is a safe play in cash games with a very high floor.

-Jankos (DK $6,900, AD $7,900) – I prefer him in DK over AD but he’s likely a great play on both sites. The jungle matchup against Loulex is the most lopsided matchup in H2K’s favor so look for them to recognize and exploit that.

Secondary Plays

-Ryu (DK $7,900, AD $8,100) – Grabbing at least one of the H2K carries is certainly a good strategy so, while I like Forg1ven, I think the better value is in Ryu. His opponent Fox has fallen off a bit recently and Ryu has been very solid lately. He leads all EU mid laners with an 8.4 KDA and he’s at a pretty good value, especially on DraftKings being the 5th most expensive at his position albeit by a small margin.

Unicorns of Love

Elite Plays

-Hylissang (DK $4,300, AD $7,300) – Rarely will I pay up for a support so when looking for a support on a budget, I try to key on players that tend to have longer games and high kill totals. Enter Unicorns of Love which is basically the description of how this team has played. Hylissang is 2nd at his position in assists along with a respectable kill participation of 75.2%.

Secondary Plays

-Steelback (DK only $6,200) – His price on AD (higher than Rekkles and Zven) will have me avoiding him there but he has decent value on DK. I still prefer MrRalleZ for my GPP lineups but I actually like flexing one or the other and having them both. His production has been great and only the matchup is holding him back from being an elite play.

Roccat vs. Vitality

Roccat							Vitality
			Record		3-11					Record		11-3
			Vegas Sprd		+405					Vegas Sprd		-565
			Avg. KP		68.0					Avg. KP		69.2
			Team Pace		0.79					Team Pace		0.75
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks							Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks
DvP Rks	Top	Jng	Mid	Supp	ADC		DvP Rks	Top	Jng	Mid	Supp	ADC
Players	fredy122	Airwaks	Betsy	NoXiAK	Tabzz		Players	Cabochard	Shook	Nukeduck	KaSing	Hjarnan
Opp. Season	2	2	3	2	3		Opp. Season	10	10	10	10	10

Vitality may have fallen from the top of the standings in record, but they are still decisively in the top 3 as one of the elite teams in Europe. Roccat on the other hand would be close to that if every game had a time limit that ended at around 30 minutes. The early game statistics on this team are ridiculous and it proved to be true yet again as they acquired a massive gold lead that they held until after the 40 minute mark at which point things fell apart. In the end, Roccat is a below average team with some interesting fantasy options but nothing like the elite players that Vitality has. To piggyback on that point, the fantasy value for this VIT team has been generated primarily from the solo laners for most of the season. Recently, however, the duo of Hjarnan and KaSing have been performing quite well with the former having at least 4 kills and 5 assists in 5 straight games. So for this slate I’m actually leaning toward fading on the solo laners of Cabochard and Nukeduck, both of which will likely have fairly high ownership percentages, and taking one or both of the bot lane players for Vitality.

The Roccat players I usually target are most likely going to be a one-off GPP play like Betsy or Tabzz, but I think Airwaks has good value as a punt in cash games. It’s always dangerous to punt with Betsy or Tabzz because mid and ADC are positions that have such volatile highs and lows which makes Airwaks even more attractive in this scenario. Airwaks hasn’t been overly consistent having 2 or less combined kills + assists in 3 of his last 8 games but he eclipsed 6 assists in the other 5 games during that span with an 8 kills to go along with that in Roccat’s most recent game versus Origen.

Roccat

Elite Plays

- None

Secondary Plays

-Airwaks (DK $4,700, $7,100) – It’s fair to call Airwaks volatile but because I’m essentially punting the jungle position with him in my lineup, his high ceiling makes him a great GPP option. His numbers are basically a mirror of what Amazing has for Origen and Airwaks even rates higher in kill participation and damage %. I’d certainly rather have Airwaks even if it’s a gamble the reward potential outweighs the risk.

Vitality

Elite Plays

- None

Secondary Plays

-Hjarnan (DK $8,400, AD $8,300) OR KaSing (DK $6,400, AD $7,600) – I know it’s a bit weird to have an either or option for two very different positions in value but I’ve presented some good cheap salary options for both support and ADC. Pairing those with either Hjarnan or KaSing is a great way to reap the value of this matchup. Hjarnan has been coming on strong recently and I already mentioned some of his recent stats in the segment above. There are a lot of ADC’s in that salary range and I prefer him and Emperor over any of the other top tier options. Meanwhile KaSing is 2nd in kill participation among supports and is averaging over 12 assists over his past 4 games.

Splyce vs. G2 Esports

Splyce							G2 Esports
			Record		4-10					Record		11-3
			Vegas Sprd		+425					Vegas Sprd		-600
			Avg. KP		74.3					Avg. KP		69.4
			Team Pace		0.67					Team Pace		1.05
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks							Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks
DvP Rks	Top	Jng	Mid	Supp	ADC		DvP Rks	Top	Jng	Mid	Supp	ADC
Players	Wunderwear	Trashy	Sencux	Nisbeth	Kobbe		Players	Kikis	Trick	Perkz	Hybrid	Emperor
Opp. Season	4	3	2	4	2		Opp. Season	5	5	6	7	7

I’m really torn on this game because on one hand I love watching G2 play with their aggressive style and teamfighting prowess. On the other hand, watching Splyce games is like a form of mild torture so I’m not quite sure what to do about this one. Teams against Splyce have been a challenge to evaluate and predict due to the nature of their playstyle. Splyce features the lowest combined kills per minute and they sit in the lower half of both kills and deaths. It’s a conservative style of play that is completely opposite from what we see from their opponent, G2. In the first meeting between these teams, the aggressive style of G2 won out and I’m expecting more of the same in this one. It will be difficult to get your hands on more than 1 G2 player so grabbing one of their top scorers in Perkz at mid lane or Emperor at ADC should still net a high return even at the high salary mark for both sites.

Splyce

Elite Plays

- None

Secondary Plays

- None

G2 Esports

Elite Plays

-Emperor (DK $8,300, AD $8,400) – I don’t care about the price. He’s the best fantasy ADC in EU, if I can only have one G2 player it’s going to be Emperor. He’s leading his position in both kills and assists and nobody is really even close to him in combined kills + assists. In 3 of his last 10 games he has 45 or more points (DK) and only 1 EU ADC even has 2 such games in that span.

Secondary Plays

-Perkz (DK $8,300, AD $8,300) – While I think Emperor has the higher upside, you can’t really go wrong with Perkz. It’s an AlphaDraft play more than DraftKings and I’ve worked out a few lineups with both Perkz and Emperor without having to sacrifice too much so I really like that play for cash games on AD.

Still need more data to help set your lineups? Check out our eSports daily research tools