LoL Fantasy - IEM Day 1: Analysis and Picks
This week’s articles are going to be a little bit different. As we move into our first international tournament, we get to see matchups featuring teams from all of the four major regions competing head to head. In a way, we are comparing apples to oranges so the statistics aren’t quite as relevant as standard LCS play.
What we can do is take a look at the team’s strengths and weaknesses and how they will match up against one another from a stylistic standpoint. Let’s head to the rift and get started.
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Team SoloMid vs ESC Ever
We will start the tournament with a game of seemingly endless unknowns. For ESC Ever, we saw them storm onto the international radar by winning the IEM Cologne tournament against teams like H2k Gaming and Qiao Gu Reapers. It was an upset of fairly epic proportions but the young Korean team seemed to be unphased by the high pressure of an international event. Following IEM, they went on to win the KESPA Cup by defeating the defending World Champion SK Telecom T1 team followed by CJ Entus. It can certainly be argued that the top tier LCK teams were not in prime form after a long season but it was still a major upset victory for Ever. Things began to trend a bit downhill for Ever when they failed to qualify for the LCK Spring Split after suffering a series loss to, the current worst team in the LCK, SBENU Sonicboom. Ever’s roster was a bit different at the time as they were experimenting with a few different options at the jungle and AD Carry position. While they have been waiting for their chance to prove themselves in tournament play yet again, Ever has been working their way through the Korean Challenger League and they sit tied atop the standings after being swept 0-2 by the other top Challenger squad.
So how do we evaluate a team that has shown the ability to play at such astonishing highs, but have also shown that they lack the skill to consistently match the level of even lower tier Korean teams? The answer is…well there isn’t really an answer. We know what they are capable of when it comes to raw ability to win games against top tier opponents but it comes with a few caveats. Despite winning IEM Cologne, they still had the worst gold differential at 15 minutes (-855) and they only secured first blood in 1 of 8 matches during their tournament run. These aren’t damning figures but they are a bit concerning and from scouting their recent matches in the Challenger Series, the early game continues to be somewhat of a struggle for them. This can partially be attributed to their preferred play style. Ever loves to play champions and compositions that focus on global map pressure. Their teamfighting is good but when you play such a global composition, you open yourself up to some inherent risks by showing up on the map in force, allowing the other team to push objectives. A strong macro team will be able to punish that but TSM has yet to show they are a strong macro team consistently.
On the other side of the rift we have Team SoloMid, a team with plenty of unknowns in their own right but for different reasons. The so-called “super team” has been more like a “super average team” through 7 weeks of NA LCS play. It’s actually hard to pinpoint an area where TSM has been strong other than raw mechanical skill due to the roster full of talented players. League of Legends is not won on mechanical skill and while it may net a team some favorable opportunities, failing to execute as a team has been the ultimate downfall for Team SoloMid. The shot-calling has been all over the place and it varies from game to game. Sometimes TSM manages to choke their opponent out by making great macro play but at other times they seem to be playing as five individual players with no communication. The same goes for their teamfighting which has been fluid and calculated in some games while other games feature misplays from multiple members within a teamfight. The early game has been average for TSM as they sit at basically even on gold differential at 15 minutes but when you have players like Bjergsen and Doublelift, you should be handily winning at that point in the game because it is the time where mechanical skill matters most. It’s not to say those two have not performed well considering they both lead their position in CS differential at 15 minutes but TSM often fails to translate that power into objectives or force fights in their favor. TSM sits towards the bottom of the league in securing first blood, first dragon and first baron which ties exactly into what I said about their failure to translate early advantages into macro success.
So what does all this mean for the matchup? What about the players? How can we make sense of these two unknown commodities to know what we should expect when they face off? Well, let’s give it a shot.
One key factor in this matchup that I have been pulling my hair out over (and I’m sure I’m not alone) is how does one compare a team that plays in the lower tier Korean circuit, to a professional organization in North America. The general consensus is that top tier North American and European teams (no, TSM is not a top tier NA team at this juncture) could compete in the LCK but would fall near the bottom half of the league and maybe even towards the very bottom. Just something to consider when comparing the two at a very basic level. As far as the matchup goes, Team SoloMid has some advantages that at least give them a potential win condition. For one, they are playing in the NA LCS which is a league that sees a massive amount of lane swaps. Ever has seen some but their execution in such scenarios has been lacking so we could see an already weak early game team in Ever, fall further behind on the backs of a productive laneswap for TSM. We can also safely say that, at their best (I’m not even sure if we have seen that yet) Team SoloMid has the talent to match Ever in lane. Bjergsen may have the greatest advantage in lane against Tempt and if I’m taking TSM players, I think Bjergsen is the guy to feel safest with. His damage % numbers are nothing to write home about, but he’s also receiving a shockingly low amount of the team’s gold share especially considering how good Bjergsen is. Finally, TSM has been decent in vision control especially in their opposing team’s jungle. This should allow them to create plays and get kills which can lead to towers, dragons or baron. The problem is, this version of TSM has failed to capitalize on that vision by making any big plays. They tend to just use the information to try to set up a team fight or avoid a fight rather than pick off the opponent. Vision is also created by good wave control which is not something that shows up in the stats but the best way to describe the value of wave control is that it forces your opponent to play around you. When it comes to setting my lineup, the secondary players on TSM like Svenskeren and Yellowstar are too high risk to roster but the carry player like Bjergsen and Doublelift could have value, especially in AlphaDraft where TSM is priced lower.
On the side of Ever, there is certainly a lot to like especially on the DraftKings slate because of the value on their players. I would probably peg them as the favorite but this should be the closest matchup of the scheduled matchups for Friday and Saturday. The team runs through their bottom lane carry, ADC Loken, and their superb support player, Key. Yes, Doublelift and Yellowstar are no pushovers, but when you watch them struggle against lower tier NA teams, you have to wonder how well they can handle a fairly strong Korean bottom lane. Top lane is another position that Ever funnels their resources as top laner Crazy can play a ton of carry champions. I like the matchup against Hauntzer a good bit and I think Crazy has good value on both sites and he may even be a better option than Looper. Ares is a pretty good jungler but considering the way Svenskeren has looked lately, he should have the upper hand in the matchup.
Overall, I give the edge to ESC Ever because of their ability to pick the right team fight and execute. If they push their agression across the map, TSM will be forced to react which is something they only manage to do about half the time. Mechanically, Ever is just about as good as TSM despite being in a lower professional tier but don’t let that scare you away from locking some of their players in your lineup. International matches between teams from different regions can be a bit sloppy so there could be fantasy value on both sides but I’m going to favor picking up Ever players just because they look to be safer.
Players I like:
-Crazy – Top – Ever (DK $6,000, AD $7,600) – The play on ESC Ever is better on DraftKings than AlphaDraft but I’m still really liking Crazy in this slate. He has a weird champion pool and the team often allows him to counter pick which basically always gives him an edge in the matchup. Look for him to be the major playmaker out of the solo laners
-Loken – ADC – Ever (DK $6,800, AD $7,900) – Another great value play on DK is Loken who is the other major carry on the team for ESC Ever. Loken is more of teamfighter but he was able to hold his own against elite ADC Forg1ven which is a pretty astounding feat. He had 17 kills during the IEM Cologne series against H2k so I like his chances against a struggling Doublelift and Yellowstar duo.
-Bjergsen – Mid – TSM (DK $7,800, AD $7,800) – This comes with a little asterisk because it is a contrarian play and I would reserve it primarily for a GPP format on AD where his value is a bit higher. I’m still trying to get an RNG stack with Ever players sprinkled in but the matchup is still looking like a 60/40 in favor of Ever. For Bjergsen to exceed value, we will need to see a TSM play up to their potential which we have yet to actually see this season. Having said that, Tempt is good but not great and TSM’s best bet may be funneling resources into a player like Bjergsen.
Origen vs Royal Never Give Up
This matchup looks more cut and dry so I’ll try to be a bit more concise than my analysis of the first game. The good thing about this matchup is that I have basically already broken down Origen in my rundown of TSM. The flaws are similar in overall synergy that just doesn’t seem to be there and the lack of jungle pressure in the current meta from Amazing, like his TSM counterpart Svenskeren, has been one of the many pitfalls leading to subpar performances on both sides. Origen may be remembered by some from the Worlds 2015 Semifinals but the team is not clicking on that level at this point in the season. Replacing the legendary xPeke, despite being in the twilight of his career, with star mid laner PowerOfEvil who has really failed to impress thus far. Meanwhile, top laner SoaZ appears to be lost in the current meta making him a liability in this tournament in any role other than split-pushing. The clear bright spot for Origen is Zven who has been their key to victory averaging over 5.2 kills in wins while sporting a kill average of 2.1 in OG losses. There isn’t really a lot to like for Origen coming into IEM and they have one of the toughest first games having to battle China’s top team RNG.
Royal Never Give Up is a team of veteran leaders mixed with young talent and that combination has been quite fruitful through the early stages of the 2016 competitive season. Royal comes in hot off of a win over top tier Chinese rival, Qiao Gu and they look to make a splash at IEM Katowice. For those unfamiliar, RNG often epitomizes that “Chinese aggression” playstyle we have seen in years past with players like Uzi and Insec. Whether they are ahead or behind, RNG is trying to make aggressive plays on the back of their superb jungler, mlxg. This is a guy I really like in daily and I think he has the highest ceiling and floor of anyone at his position so he is almost a certain lock for my lineups on both DK and AD. I love the matchup into OG jungler Amazing who will probably have to play so defensive, that the lanes on their own will have to get ahead on their own, something OG has failed to do time and time again this season. Baron control is also a massive part of the RNG win condition making them a nice team option on both sites as well.
Being the heavy favorite will force you to pay up to get Royal Never Give Up players but question marks surround all of the other three teams far more than Royal so I’m willing to dish up the salary in cash games due to the very high likelihood that RNG will win. I’ve talked a little bit about the lane swapping differences between regions and how it could negatively affect the Korean and Chinese teams but I don’t see this being an issue for RNG. For one, RNG plays in the LPL group with Team Snake who is one of the few Chinese teams that prioritize lane swaps. Also, OG is not even considered that strong of a team when it comes to swapping so I don’t think it will be much of a deciding factor in the early stages of this game.
In conclusion, Royal should be able to overpower Origen in almost every facet. From a mechanical standpoint, they are just superior players and as a team they are clicking at another level. RNG Support Mata has had great success shotcalling on an international level and the sheer aggression should lead to kills aplenty on the side of Royal. They are the most expensive players, but they are the surefire stack in cash games for this slate.
Players I like:
-Mlxg – Jungle – RNG (DK $6,800, AD $7,900) – He will almost certainly hit value and will likely be one of the primary carries in this game which makes his value even better out of the jungle. The most important piece in any RNG stack. Mlxg is leading all LPL junglers with over 4 kills per game and he even has the 2nd most assists per game.
-Wuxx – ADC – RNG (DK $8,000, AD $8,200) – He is averaging 5.5 kills and 8 assists over his past 6 games and now he gets to face a struggling opponent in OG. Wuxx doesn’t have much experience internationally but with Mata by his side, the fantasy points should be served up on a silver platter.
-Xiaohu – Mid – RNG (DK $7,800, AD $8,100) – The value for xiaohu is really boosted by the gap in quality in the mid lane for this slate. I actually would favor going with Bjergsen over Tempt and PowerOfEvil just on his upside and matchup. As for xiaohu, the RNG mid laner plays with similar gusto as his jungler counterpart with his ability to pressure aggressively in lane. POE is a decent teamfighter but in lane I just think xiaohu will build too large of an advantage and be a monster in the mid game.