LoL World Championship - Day 2
Day 1 of the World Championships 2016 is in the books and what a wild day it was. We saw upsets, outplays, and a host of interesting champion picks that will set the pace for games to come. On Day 2 we have some teams playing for their first time at the tournament as well as teams playing for the second time. Some will be looking to repeat a strong performance, others will seek redemption after falling to their first opponent. There are a ton of games today and throughout the weekend so make sure to get over to DraftKings and AlphaDraft to lock in your lineups! Let’s get right into the games for Friday.
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SK Telecom T1 (-380) vs Cloud9 (+291)
What better way to kick off Day 2 than have your defending champions take on a team on their home soil? SK Telecom comes into the tournament after not having played a game since mid-August and we really don’t know much about how their form will be on the current patch. Knowing how good the coaches and players are, that shouldn’t be much of an issue. SKT is really an interesting team for DFS on this slate because I see a lot of viability across the roster and I want to be all over this game. SKT may not be an incredibly aggressive team, but they still make necessary plays and C9 will likely be trying to apply pressure in the early game. The only position to outright avoid for SKT is the jungle spot. Bengi and Blank will both be options to start for SK Telecom but there is no word on which one will be the surefire starter.
Cloud9 against a juggernaut SKT may not be ideal for them to win the game, but they are still viable fantasy options. The carries are still likely to have some value for C9. We’ve seen SKT have some hiccups during best-of-one’s at international tournaments before (cough, cough, MSI) so there is always a chance for the upset, but that remains slim. Once again the jungle position is in question for Cloud9 not in a sense of who will be starting but Meteos has been pretty lackluster against better junglers and he has a tendency to lose composure if things go south early. If anything he will probably lead the team in deaths. SK Telecom also a great play in the team slot for where they are priced. I don’t see SKT losing this one and their losses will be few and far between in this tournament in general.
Game Targets
-Bang (DK $8,100, AD $8,100) – I may be more of Sneaky fanboy than anybody I know but the bottom lane of C9 is simply outmatched here. Bang is one of the best and most consistent players at his position so he should be in line for a big game. This iteration of SKT plays quite well around the bottom lane despite the stud solo laners like Duke and Faker.
-Jensen (DK $6,000, AD $7,300) – Faker may be the better player but Jensen receives more resources and is relied upon more heavily to carry. He may not be the next one to solo kill Faker, but Jensen will have the tools to dish out damage and rack up stats as the game goes on. Salary makes him one of the most viable mid/flex options in cash games on this slate.
Flash Wolves (-161) vs. I May (+132)
For most fans, both of these teams are probably two unknown quantities so I’ll lay out what they are all about stylistically. Flash Wolves work primarily around their mid laner, Maple. They often do this through jungler, Karsa. They have one of the worst ADC’s at the tournament in NL and MMD receives less resources than most top laners, but he’s decent enough to hold his own. I May is a strange team in their style and champions. Their best player is Avoidless and he is really their only strong early game player. I May is unrefined in most regards and they will struggle to defeat organized, macro teams. Flash Wolves early aggression is going to be key and it’s probably the single trait they are known for. In the end, I don’t think I May will have an answer for Maple who can truly carry the team on his back. The biggest question for FW will always be NL in the bottom lane so look for I May to try to exploit that weakness and survive into the late game. I think this is a game worth getting in on the action. Should have a relatively high scoring potential and there are some interesting sleeper picks across the board that have potential to surprise.
Game Targets
-Maple (DK $7,600, AD $8,000) – When Flash Wolves win’s games it is generally off the early aggression from Maple and Karsa. I expect them to win this one, and I don’t know if I May has the tools to deal with this dynamic duo. Athena is a mid-tier mid laner in the LPL and Maple is one of the best players in the region. Big mismatch and I want to be all over it.
-Karsa (DK $6,500, AD $7,600) – The Karsa/Maple duo is not only an effective duo for Flash Wolves, but I expect to it also be a nice combo for DFS lineups on this slate. Avoidless does have some quirks that could throw FW for a loop early on but Karsa gets enough gold and has the talent to outplay in the end. He is one of the few carry junglers at this tournament so he always has value and potential to go off in a given game.
-Road (DK $4,700, AD $6,900) – This is a high risk/high reward pickup so it’s probably more of a GPP punt option than anything. Road is a unique support in the sense that he makes his impact not in the duo lane, but in his roaming to other lanes. This will be necessary against FW if I May has a chance in the early game. Proceed with caution
Team SoloMid (+100) vs. Samsung Galaxy (-121)
Last night when I checked the odds before these teams had played, TSM was a slight favorite but it appears they lost that priviledge last night after dropping their Day 1 match to RNG where they got out-drafted and out-scaled. Samsung is interesting because they came in as one of the hottest teams in the tournament, but their playstyle was not similar to the way they played in their qualifying matches, yet they still defeated Splyce easily. It was such a reactive style to Splyce’s countless mistakes and I think TSM still has a good shot in this game. We saw Crown put his stamp on this tournament already and just dominate against Splyce and while I expect him to be decent, CuVee is on my watch list for this game along with Ruler and Wraith. Doublelift is a fade for me and I’m instead going to pick up Sven who was the best performing player for TSM in game one and he seems to show up in crunch time. For Team SoloMid, nerves seemed to be a factor as well as a poor draft. Biofrost needs to prove he can show up in the clutch and he doesn’t have any respite after facing Mata he now goes up against the mechanical support wizard in Wraith. The salaries in this are fairly reasonable across the board and you can feel comfortable grabbing players on both sides but I would lean on SSG instead of TSM. I also want to avoid the team slot in this game because it’s a complete toss-up.
Game Targets
-CuVee (DK $6,100, AD $7,400) – Another underpriced top laner, at least on DK, CuVee was one of the many bright spots against Splyce for SSG. No, this matchup is not as easy but the current meta fits CuVee so well. He is going to have value and pairing him with Ziv in the flex spot is perfectly viable.
-Ruler (DK $7,000, AD $7,600) – We all know and love Doublelift and I don’t think he was necessarily the problem for TSM in their loss to RNG. The real problem in this matchup is going to be Biofrost versus Wraith. This Samsung duo plays so well in the lane and they are aggressive much like RNG was. Ruler should be in strong position to carry this game if Crown is neutralized by Bjergsen.
-Bjergsen (DK $7,200, AD $7,700) – Bjergsen and Svenskeren worked so well together in the first match despite the loss so Crown will have his hands full dealing with that sort of pressure. I don’t think TSM is quite back to the “Bjergsen has to carry” mentality but he is still one of the primary threats on this team and I think Sven will continue to emphasize him getting ahead.
Royal Never Give Up (-470) vs. Splyce (+348)
Royal Never Give Up’s game against Team SoloMid was probably the most well played game of the day. Both teams displayed strong macro game and mechanical individual skill. The draft from RNG was very strong and it was nice to see xiaohu playing up to his potential that he showcased at MSI. He didn’t outright beat Bjergsen but even holding his own was not exactly what many expected after his recent play. Splyce on the other hand had one of the sloppiest games of Day 1. Their poor decision making and individual misplays were either a result of lack of preparation or nerves but I’ll give them the benefit of the doubt and assume it was the latter. They forfeited so many unnecessary deaths to Samsung and against an even more aggressive team like RNG, Splyce might not make it past the 25 minute mark. Mata was playing out of his mind for RNG against TSM and now he gets to feast on Splyce who is even weaker mechanically. Load up on RNG and they are one of my favorite teams in that team slot on both sites.
Game Targets
-Uzi (DK $8,100, AD $7,900) – While Bang is the safer high end ADC, Uzi has the most upside on this slate. He had a huge game out of the gates against TSM with a 94% kill participation. He and Mata were roaming the map at perfect times to catch out the enemy and Splyce did a great job getting caught out of position against Samsung. Unless both of those things change, Uzi could be the highest scoring player on this slate.
-Mata (DK $6,000, AD $7,400) – The same logic applies to Mata. Even if Splyce is not as bad as they were against Samsung, they are still outmatched by RNG. Mata is the playmaker for this team and he will always be a threat to hit the 10+ assist bonus, regardless of outcome.
H2K (-272) vs. INTZ (+216)
A huge hats off to INTZ for their first victory in the groups stage against EDG of all teams. Known for their exceptional macro for an international wildcard team, that was on full display during their Day 1 victory. What’s interesting is that H2K has really struggled with their macro and late game shotcalling. If H2K isn’t proactive in the early game they could really be in trouble. Often times H2K just plays the passive game into a stalemate until one team eventually throws the game which does not generate a ton of fantasy value so INTZ will have to be the proactive team here for any value. The salaries on H2K side are flat out ridiculous for their value. They have a slight risk to lose this game and even when they win, it’s generally not in the fashion where fantasy points pile up in the first place. It’s worth noting just how impressive Revolta and Yang were as a jungle/top duo but repeating that against H2K will be a tall task because of how well Jankos plays with the solo lanes in the early stages. I’m more confident in Revolta repeating that performance than Yang.
Game Targets
-Revolta (DK $4,800, AD $6,500) – The early game from Revolta was outstanding but I was even more impressed by his late game teamfighting on Lee Sin, a champion that traditionally falls off as the game goes on. So even if Jankos is able to contain him in the early phase, H2K has no clue how to teamfight. INTZ appears to have a better understanding when it comes to late game shotcalling and Revolta is the one who starts those plays. He has some value but isn’t a “must-own”
-Ryu (DK $8,300, AD $8,200) – I was more impressed with Ryu in the laning phase than I was all Summer Split. He was aggressive, but controlled at the same time. His positioning late was highly questionable but if H2K can grow an early lead, that will be less of a worry. He can still be the primary carry on this team even though they have Forg1ven. He’s not my favorite mid laner but this slate is a weird one at that position so he is at least viable.
Edward Gaming (-355) vs. ahq E-Sports (+274)
Should EDG actually be the favorite in this one? After a stunning loss to INTZ, EDG shouldn’t be in panic-mode but they should be on high alert. Meanwhile ahq was impressive in their controlled victory over H2K where they showed off the teamfighting prowess that they are known for. First and foremost, EDG has to be concerned about Mouse in the top lane, especially after Ziv went performed so well for ahq in the first match. Ziv is a two time LMS MVP and he should be able to overpower Mouse in every regard unless EDG really switches up their strategy. The problem for ahq is the matchup. Though in different regions, EDG and ahq are almost like sister teams. They have shared coaches and have a very strong relationship so they practice against one another quite frequently. One could say ahq is almost like a lesser version of EDG. That didn’t necessarily show during Day 1 but I think Day 2 will be more favorable for EDG and I’m actually going to take advantage of that when I can. Do I think ahq has some viability? Sure, but I think this game is a fade all the way. Ahq is going to be rostered but I don’t think they will hit value and this could be a stomp by EDG despite their initial struggles. The loss to INTZ may very well be their only loss in groups.
Game Targets
-Ziv (DK $5,000, AD $6,700) – Ziv is the most underpriced player on this slate and it isn’t even close. He is an absolute monster and the best player on his team who is expected to carry. Mouse for EDG on the other hand…well he isn’t anything close to that. His weakness was exposed against INTZ and ahq is fully aware of this. I’m buying on Ziv as much as possible in this matchup.