LSU vs. Florida State Prediction, Odds & Picks
We are still one week away from NFL action, which means that the first edition of Sunday Night Football in 2023 will be at the collegiate level. The betting community could not ask for a more exciting matchup than a meeting between two top-10 schools, with LSU traveling to take on Florida State.
In our LSU vs. Florida State betting preview, we break down the rosters for both teams, make a prediction for the game, and deliver a free pick and a PrizePicks lean.
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LSU vs. FSU Odds
| LSU Odds | -2 |
| Florida State Odds | +2 |
| Over/Under | 56.5 |
| Date | Sun, Sep. 3 |
| Time | 7:30 p.m. |
| TV | ABC |
Let’s take a deeper look at the matchup and some college football betting tips as we try to find value at sportsbooks in this contest.
LSU Tigers
Daniels begins quest for Heisman Trophy
Entering Week 1, LSU starting quarterback Jayden Daniels has the second-shortest odds of any player in the country to win the Heisman, trailing only reigning winner Caleb Williams. Daniels is one of the most dangerous dual-threat quarterbacks in the nation. In 2022, he had a 17-to-3 touchdown-to-interception ratio and led LSU in rushing with 885 yards – adding another 11 scores on the ground. Even a formidable Florida State defense is going to struggle to find answers for Daniels.
Replacing defensive losses
According to Phil Steele, LSU has the third-best linebacker corps in college football heading into 2023. The unit is headlined by Harold Perkins, who had four sacks in a single game as a freshman last year. Still, they lost Micah Bickersville, who led LSU in tackles last fall. In the secondary unit, safety Jay Ward and cornerback Jarrick Bernard-Converse both left for the NFL. Cornerback Mekhi Garner started 13 games in 2022 for this unit and had eight pass breakups. On the defensive line, BJ Ojulari and Jaquelin Roy both left for the NFL. Ali Gaye started 12 games and won’t be back with the team. Brian Kelly landed a healthy amount of talent via the transfer portal, but it is likely going to take time to get everyone on the same page on the defensive side of the ball with all of these moving pieces.
Florida State Seminoles
Jordan Travis leads potent FSU offense
Jordan Travis has consistently improved throughout his collegiate career, and is a legitimate Heisman candidate heading into the new campaign. Following a rough start to 2021, Travis had an 11-to-2 touchdown-to-interception ratio and led his team to a 5-2 record down the stretch. Last year, Travis finished the year ranked 6th out of 308 qualified players at his position, per PFF. He had 29 total touchdowns as one of the best dual-threats in the country. Travis will be well-supported in 2023 by a competent running back room, plenty of size at wide receiver, and one of the most experienced offensive lines in recent memory. Florida State could push 40 points per game this fall.
Best defense in the ACC?
On top of having an elite offensive attack, the Seminoles have nine returning starters on defense. Six of their top-seven tacklers from 2022 return, including talented defensive lineman Jared Verse, who was one of the best edge rushers in college football last season. The entire linebacker corps is back, helping to solidify the second level of this unit. In the secondary, they lost Jammie Robinson to the NFL, but are in fine shape with Fentrell Cypress II, Renardo Green, Akeem Dent, and Shyheim Brown.
LSU vs. Florida State Prediction and Picks
Often overlooked when handicapping football is the special teams unit for teams. In 2022, LSU finished 117th in the country in Phil Steele’s special teams rankings. Their entire unit returns for 2023, which is not exactly a good thing, considering their kicking woes and lackluster production in the return game. Florida State was closer to average in this phase of the game, but secured notable upgrades during the off-season – bringing in Tyler Keltner as the team’s kicker.
Overall, Florida State has more roster stability, less vulnerabilities on the defensive side of the ball, and of course, home field advantage in this matchup. They are likely the more complete team heading into Week 1, which gives them good value as an underdog in this spot.
FREE PICK: Florida State Moneyline (+110, Fanatics Sportsbook)
Free PrizePicks Prediction for LSU-FSU
Jayden Daniels More Than 45.5 Rushing Yards, PrizePicks
Jayden Daniels is going to have to make plays with his legs if LSU hopes to have any chance of competing in this game. He ran the ball 186 times in 2022 and figures to see another heavy workload on the ground in 2023, even with moderate upgrades in the running back room. Florida State is stout at linebacker, but this market number is likely still too low for a player who had 885 rushing yards last fall.
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