2024 Mexico Open: PGA Golf Betting Picks This Week
This week, Joe Cistaro breaks down PGA golf betting tips for the 2024 Mexico Open.
This week, Vidanta Villarta hosts the 2024 Mexico Open. The third rendition of the event since becoming a PGA TOUR event, the Mexico Open has seen favorites thrive in Jon Rahm and Tony Finau over the last couple of years. With Tony Finau returning this year to defend, the field is rife with young talent looking to break through. Our golf betting preview covers the course and field. Let’s build our card.
The Mexico Open Odds at DraftKings Sportsbook
At the time of this writing – February 20th – you can find these odds at DraftKings Sportsbook. The below list features all golfers priced at 50/1 or better.
| Golfer | Odds (2/20) |
|---|---|
| Tony Finau | +750 |
| Nicolai Hojgaard | +1600 |
| Emiliano Grillo | +2200 |
| Stephan Jaeger | +2200 |
| Thomas Detry | +2500 |
| Taylor Pendrith | +2500 |
| Thorbjorn Olesen | +2800 |
| Keith Mitchell | +2800 |
| Patrick Rodgers | +3000 |
| Ryan Fox | +3500 |
| Erik Van Rooyen | +3500 |
| Davis Thompson | +3500 |
| Jake Knapp | +4000 |
| Brandon Wu | +4000 |
| Aaron Rai | +4500 |
| Ryo Hisatsune | +4500 |
| Mark Hubbard | +4500 |
| Doug Ghim | +4500 |
| Mackenzie Hughes | +5000 |
2024 Mexico Open: PGA Golf Betting Picks This Week
- Course: Vidanta Villarta
- Date: February 22 – 25
- Par: 71
- Yardage: 7,456
- Greens: Paspalum
Key Statistics
- SG: Approach
- SG: OTT
- Driving Distance
- BOB%
- Sand Saves
- SG: Putting
Unless mentioned otherwise, all Strokes Gained statistics will be referenced over the player’s previous 24 rounds on the PGA TOUR.
Taylor Pendrith +2500 (FanDuel)
In the betting preview, I mentioned Pendrith as one of the better-suited golfers in the field for this course. Over the past 24 rounds, Taylor Pendrith ranks first in the Strokes Gained model I created for this event.
Pendrith sits in the top 10 of most of the key categories I used to cull out golfers this week. He ranks 8th in SG: Approach and 6th in ball-striking. Further, he is a bomber, and this course lends itself to players who can drive the ball well off of the tee. The 25-1 price tag is a bit tough to swallow for Pendrith, but we are not buying him at this price in a normal field. Relative to this week’s field, Pendrith is amongst the elite.
We open with him for a full unit. Now, we will fill our card out with a number of golfers who are bombers at decent price tags.
Cameron Champ +5500 (BetMGM)
Cameron Champ has certain courses that he fits very well. Courses that suit players that are extremely long off of the tee or with their irons have been Champ’s jam throughout his career. His track record at Augusta is nearly inexplicable. However, like Augusta, Vidanta Villarta possesses generous fairways and very long par 4s. Champ ranks 5th in proximity from 200+ yards and should not have much trouble with the long par 4s.
As for the course, Champ has two starts here with two T10 finishes. If he can roll some putts in, he could break through at a great price.
Jhonattan Vegas +6000 (bet365)
Jhonny Vegas finally made a cut last week in Phoenix and might be trending at the perfect time. In a watered-down field, the Mexico Open is played at a course that is suited to his strengths.
Vegas ranks 2nd in ball-striking and 4th off the tee. He is not short by any means, ranking 4th in the field in driving distance. If Vegas can get hot like he did in Phoenix, he could find himself in contention come Sunday. I love adding him to a betting card that I am consciously filling with bombers.
Alejandro Tosti +6600 (BetMGM)
Finally, Tosti could be poised to ascend at the Mexico Open this weekend. He has made a few starts on TOUR this year and finally finds himself at a location tailored to his game.
Surprise, surprise, Tosti is our fourth bomber on the card. He finished 10th at Vidanta Villarta last year and ranks 6th in SG: OTT and 4th in driving distance. He struggles with sand saves and is not one of the better approach players in the field. That said, we are clearly looking to focus on a specific skill set that has shown some stickiness at this course over the first two years. At 66-1, Tosti doesn’t cost much as a dart throw.
2024 Mexico Open Betting Card
| Golfer | Odds | Units | Payout |
|---|---|---|---|
| Taylor Pendrith | +2500 | 1 | 25 |
| Cameron Champ | +5500 | 0.45 | 24.75 |
| Jhonattan Vegas | +6000 | 0.45 | 27 |
| Alejandro Tosti | +6600 | 0.4 | 26.4 |
The Genesis Invitational Units: 2.3
2023 Net Units: -9.9
Good luck with all of your golf betting picks and DFS lineups this week.
Follow me on Twitter at @JoeCistaro to follow along with any additions, matchups, or top finishers I add to my outright betting card. Good luck with all of your wagers this week, and thanks for reading.
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