2024 Mexico Open Odds: Golf Betting Preview & Breakdown

by Joe Cistaro (joeycis) Last Updated 2024-02-21 14:37:23

This week, Joe Cistaro breaks down PGA golf betting tips for the 2024 Mexico Open. You can use the PrizePicks referral code GRINDERS to claim a $100 deposit bonus on golf props today!

After Hideki Matsuyama outlasted the field at Riviera, the PGA Tour moves south of the border for the 2024 Mexico Open. With a drastic downgrade in field class, Tony Finau is a lopsided favorite to repeat as champion. Will the weaker field offer an opportunity for a young golfer to break through? Will Tony take advantage of a step down in class? Let’s go over betting odds, the course, and a few golfers to consider for the week.

The Mexico Open Odds at DraftKings Sportsbook

At the time of this writing – February 20th – you can find these odds at DraftKings Sportsbook. The below list features all golfers priced at 50/1 or better.

Here are the recent winners of the Mexico Open:

• 2023 – Tony Finau (-24)
• 2022 – Jon Rahm (-17)

Tony Finau hoisted the trophy at Vidanta last season after giving Jon Rahm a run for his money in 2022. With Rahm on the LIV Tour and the strength of this field very weak, Tony Finau is a prohibitive favorite to earn back-to-back wins in Mexico.

The field is set with 132 players with the top 65 and ties playing on Saturday and Sunday. Four the the top 50 players in the OWGR will play in the field this weekend. Nicolai Hojgaard will look for his first win on tour as the second-favorite behind Tony Finau. Emiliano Grillo and Keith Mitchell represent the minority of players in the field with tour victories. Stephan Jaeger will look to improve on his 3rd-place finish at the Farmer’s as a real contender in this field.

With all due respect to the field, we won’t be looking at much star power. This is the perfect week to take a shot on a one-and-done player off of the board if you don’t want to use Tony Finau. This is an even better week to load up on a high quantity of golfers at high odds at Vidanta Villarta.

2024 Mexico Open Betting Preview

• Course: Vidanta Villarta
• Date: March 22 – 25
• Par: 71
• Yardage: 7,456
• Greens: Paspalum

Vidanta Villarta is very long for a Par 71 and plays as a bomber’s course. Aside from Jon Rahm and Tony Finau, Cameron Champ and Jhonny Vegas have put together good performances at the event.

The course layout is unique with four par fives and five par threes. Vidanta Villarta was lengthened to prepare for a PGA Tour event. Since Vidanta Villarta is not at an elevation like the previous host, Chapultepec, expect the course to play long.

The entire course is paspalum with very little rough to be concerned with. The fairways are very generous. We expect golfers to grip it and rip it this week. Additionally, five of the Par fours are north of 475 yards. Driving distance will be of great importance this week.

The first two tournaments at this course have produced very low scores for winners. Make no mistake, birdies will be vital throughout the week as we expect plenty of scoring. With four Par fives and a reachable Par four, we need players who can go low for four rounds. Even par will not cut it this week.

Finally, the course has 106 bunkers. Sand saves and strokes gained in the short game will play a role when players don’t hit greens. As ever, SG: Approach will be pivotal, as players will need to create myriad opportunities at birdies.

We will be looking at SG: Approach, OTT, driving distance, SG: Par 5, putting, and sand saves as our key stats for this week’s model.

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Golfers To Watch This Week

Unless mentioned otherwise, all Strokes Gained statistics will be referenced over the player’s previous 24 rounds on the PGA TOUR.

Taylor Pendrith +2500

Taylor Pendrith started the 2024 season with two made cuts out of three events. His made cuts yielded two T10 finishes in strong-ish fields. No matter what you make of the field strength in those events, the fields were certainly stronger than what the Mexico Open will offer this weekend.

Pendrith leads the field in bogey avoidance and ranks 8th in SG: Approach. He is 15th in SG: OTT and is clearly a step above the bottom half of the field in talent and experience. We can open him if we can stomach these odds. Anybody is in consideration for a one-and-done selection this weekend. Pendrith’s hat should be thrown in that ring, as well.

Stephan Jaeger +2500

You would need to go back to April of 2023 to find a missed cut for the uber-consistent Stephan Jaeger. Jaeger nearly broke through at this year’s Farmer’s — holding a lead going into the final round before finishing in third place. Jaeger was a prolific winner on the Korn Ferry Tour and seems poised to find the winner’s circle with the big boys sooner rather than later.

With that said, many of the big boys won’t be traveling to Vidanta Villarta. Instead, Stephan Jaeger is one of the big boys. You can put a made cut in your back pocket, as Jaeger aims to take advantage of a weaker field. While Tony Finau is the class of the field, Jaeger cannot be ignored. His ball-striking is plenty capable, and he is not short by any means (28th in driving distance).

If we want to pack our card with plenty of golfers, we might need to decide between Pendrith and Jaeger. Either golfer is in play for DFS or OAD.

Mark Hubbard +5000

Mark Hubbard has not missed a cut in 2024. While his finish in Phoenix left plenty to be desired, Hubbard leaps to the top of the board in this field.

Hubbard ranks first in SG: Approach over his last 24 rounds on tour. While he is not a household name, Hubbard is more reliable than most golfers teeing it up this weekend and offers a solid price for his experience on tour. He ranks in the top 10 in bogey avoidance and top 30 in sand saves. Will he be able to score with some of the longer hitters? He will need to create more opportunities to keep pace at this event.

Jhonattan Vegas +5500

Jhonny Vegas finally broke a missed cut streak in Phoenix. Given his skill set, he is primed to take advantage of a course that rewards great drivers of the golf ball.

Vegas ranks 2nd in SG: OTT and 4th in driving distance in this week’s field. While the putter and short game leave plenty to be desired, we are looking for upside with outright bets. We are looking to capitalize on guys that can score in bunches. Vegas’ driving and ball-striking make him a decent option in an otherwise inexperienced field.

Vegas seems likely to be a popular DFS selection as well as an outright bet. While nothing is finalized for this week’s card, Vegas is probably going to get my money this week.

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