Million Dollar Musings: Monday, June 24th

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Monday, June 24th

Happy Monday! We’ve got a light seven-game slate tonight, so that means we have time to open up with some Deep Thoughts With Cheese. To get things kicked off on the right foot, let’s actually open with some REAL Deep Thoughts, by Jack Handey:

“People laugh when I say that I think a jellyfish is one of the most beautiful things in the world. What they don’t understand is, I mean a jellyfish with long, blond hair.”

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About the Author

  • Dave Potts (CheeseIsGood)

  • One of the preeminent baseball minds in all of fantasy, Dave Potts, aka CheeseIsGood, has won contests at the highest levels of both season-long and DFS. He is a two-time winner of a million dollar first place prize in DFS; having won the 2014 FanDuel baseball live final and following that up by taking down a DraftKings Millionare Maker Tournament in 2015. In addition, he’s won the Main Event championship in the National Fantasy Baseball Championship and the NFBC Platinum League, which is the highest buy-in entry league. His consistent success in the NFBC tournaments recently earned him a prestigious spot in their Hall of Fame. Dave can also strum a mean guitar while carrying a tune and if you’re lucky, you’ll see him do so on one of his GrindersLive appearances.

    Follow Dave on Twitter – @DavePotts2

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Comments

  • mufasaha

    Love reading your deep thoughts! I had an observation, typically when you pay down at pitcher it allows you to pay up for multiple hitters-not just one. So it becomes 1 expensive pitcher vs 2-4 expensive hitters. I may be wrong, but that’s how i envision it to be. Thank you.

  • CheeseIsGood

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    @mufasaha said...

    Love reading your deep thoughts! I had an observation, typically when you pay down at pitcher it allows you to pay up for multiple hitters-not just one. So it becomes 1 expensive pitcher vs 2-4 expensive hitters. I may be wrong, but that’s how i envision it to be. Thank you.

    That seems right that you get essentially two expensive batters vs one expensive pitcher. But the fail rate is showing 3x for batters, so that does not make up the difference for me. But again, this is not meant to be definitive and you do not have to do things the way I do it. Just wanted to lay these numbers out there and let people use them as they choose.

  • jettyray

    I understand for the sake of clarity and to not muddy the waters with too much info that this is DK driven. Is this opinion even stronger for one pitcher sites knowing that you can not add a second, less expensive pitcher to help upgrade bats?

  • tin8shusd

    What stood out to me the most with these numbers you broke down is that top tier pitchers fail almost ten percent less often than their mid tier counterparts, whereas top tier hitters fail just four percent less frequently than their mid tier hitting counterparts. In other words, the gap in expected failure rate between top tier and mid tier pitchers is more than double that of hitters, and therefore by extension, you are increasing your floor dramatically in cash games by getting up to a top tier pitcher as opposed to getting up to a top tier hitter.

    Hitters Fail Rate:

    Top Tier = 36%
    Mid-Tier = 40%

    Pitchers Fail Rate:

    Top Tier = 13%
    Mid-Tier = 22%

  • CheeseIsGood

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    @tin8shusd said...

    What stood out to me the most with these numbers you broke down is that top tier pitchers fail almost ten percent less often than their mid tier counterparts, whereas top tier hitters fail just four percent less frequently than their mid tier hitting counterparts. In other words, the gap in expected failure rate between top tier and mid tier pitchers is more than double that of hitters, and therefore by extension, you are increasing your floor dramatically in cash games by getting up to a top tier pitcher as opposed to getting up to a top tier hitter.

    Hitters Fail Rate:

    Top Tier = 36%
    Mid-Tier = 40%

    Pitchers Fail Rate:

    Top Tier = 13%
    Mid-Tier = 22%

    Exactly, yes! There are no guarantees anywhere, but elite pitching has the lowest failure rate of anything in this sport.

  • CheeseIsGood

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    @jettyray said...

    I understand for the sake of clarity and to not muddy the waters with too much info that this is DK driven. Is this opinion even stronger for one pitcher sites knowing that you can not add a second, less expensive pitcher to help upgrade bats?

    I will see if I have time to run some of these numbers with FD scoring to see if anything is different.

  • RP1507

    Always Be Flexible!!

  • jeffgo33

    Is there a place where all the Deep Thoughts articles can be archived? They are really valuable and I’m sure I’m not the only one who would love to refer back to them as the season progresses. Should I start a thread about it in the forum?

  • Playmakers

    This stuff is the Cheese! Hence, CheeseisGood! Thanks for writing these articles. Like EF Hutton, Cheese talks, people listen! Am I showing my age by mentioning EF Hutton?
    Thanks again!

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    @jeffgo33 said...

    Is there a place where all the Deep Thoughts articles can be archived? They are really valuable and I’m sure I’m not the only one who would love to refer back to them as the season progresses. Should I start a thread about it in the forum?

    we are working on this, will get them all archived for future reference. good idea, thanks!

  • rhallone

    When creating a lineup for a GPP it is all about what you can make work with the dollar cap. Some days the best real life pitcher is the most expensive and it’s Scherzer vs the marlins and he gets hit. Okay now play that same senario 10 times…I will ALWAYS pay $11k+ for Scherzer. What people dont understand is these guys arent robots and we dont know how their day is going ( ie kicked the dog, wife had fight, upset stomach etc. ) You cannot deviate from performance and pay down and expect the same result; however, inexpensive batters in matchups against poor pitchers, platoon splits and in better humidity situations are definitely worth searching for as the chalky batters arent always the BEST choice. Just my two cents! You keep up the fantastic work but I think you already know the results without the calculations and if somebody ever gives you grief about suggesting Verlander, Scherzer or Kerry Wood ….tell em to pound sand

  • sammyg0309

    Not only do I love this because, well numbers and stats are amazing and speak for themselves, but thank you for all the golden nuggets you threw in about strategy!

  • txdave41

    Wow, great in depth article. While I agree with your points, I’m still on the fence here. I’ve been finding more success sticking with the mid tiers. As long as they don’t get completely rocked, my lineup still has a chance. OTOH, with an ace, I have to sacrifice and go with 2-3 sub-par batters and if the ace can’t put up over 10 pts, it’s over.

    Plus the difference between pitchers and batters is a terrible performance by a pitcher results in negative scores while the batter only gets a zero and plenty ppl win GPPs with a dead batter. Yesterday, some stellar performances from my batters still couldn’t overcome the -12 I got from Brett Anderson. It’s just hopeless when that happens.

  • 2headedboy

    Love your deep thoughts! Are there any analytics that will explain why I’m so awesome at rostering an ace on their worst start of the season?

  • rhallone

    Not trying to be negative txdave I think that was the point he was trying to make. More often than not your ace pitchers wont blow your day. You just have to find the key ‘punt’ players to make your roster work. Riddle yesterday was 2900.00 against a call up with hr issues and he scored 23 pts and he has been hitting ok for the last 4-5 games after not doing much since his own call up. The value bats will help it just takes some time to find the ones that are cold vs hot…just my opinion

  • HighPlainsRider

    As a novice in these games, my reaction to a top tier pitcher fail is like when Wile E. Coyote has the anvil land on his head. Still, I love the analysis and it keeps me hopeful.

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