Million Dollar Musings: Tuesday, July 23rd

Is your lineup Premium Approved? In this space, CheeseIsGood, STLCardinals84, or fathalpert will break down the slate from top-to-bottom like no one else in the industry can – exploring the matchups from every angle, steering you toward the best plays on the day, and helping you become a better and more complete DFS player as you continually expose yourself to the “process” and the “why,” rather than just looking at the “what.” Have a boat? We’ll teach you how to fish.

If you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code, FanDuel promo code, and FantasyDraft promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

Tuesday, July 23rd

Happy Tuesday! We have got a loaded pitching slate tonight with aces everywhere. Of course there will be plenty of runs, because baseball, but at first glance, this slate is all about the arms. We’ve opened with only two games at a total of 10 runs or higher, it’s like the good old days are back again. Except they aren’t. Last year, we would have all these totals around 7-8 runs instead of 9-9.5, but still, in comparison to the typical slates we’ve seen lately, the pitching takes top billing.

Tuesday Night Arms

Our Premium content can help you make better picks every day

  • To read this article for today’s MLB games, you need to have a subscription to RG Premium.
  • A Premium subscription will allow you to access this article, as well as Consensus Value Rankings, daily picks from top-ranked players, and much more.
Get RG Premium today!


  • Want access just for today? Purchase a day pass to quickly gain access to Premium content for today’s slate!
Get a day pass!

About the Author

  • Dave Potts (CheeseIsGood)

  • One of the preeminent baseball minds in all of fantasy, Dave Potts, aka CheeseIsGood, has won contests at the highest levels of both season-long and DFS. He is a two-time winner of a million dollar first place prize in DFS; having won the 2014 FanDuel baseball live final and following that up by taking down a DraftKings Millionare Maker Tournament in 2015. In addition, he’s won the Main Event championship in the National Fantasy Baseball Championship and the NFBC Platinum League, which is the highest buy-in entry league. His consistent success in the NFBC tournaments recently earned him a prestigious spot in their Hall of Fame. Dave can also strum a mean guitar while carrying a tune and if you’re lucky, you’ll see him do so on one of his GrindersLive appearances.

    Follow Dave on Twitter – @DavePotts2

    RotoGrinders Interview

    Daily Roto Shark Interview

Comments

  • jsteele1020

    Always the best info

  • stickman1019

    I’m a frustrated DFS player,, last night, another perfect example, focus my lineups around 4 teams, Cincy, Minn, NYY, and AZ, they all scored at least 6 runs—I even mixed in BOS 1B Sam Travis at $2,700 salary who gave me a HR—went w/ Clevinger and Richards on the mound.(Richards struggled but gave me 7K) Still, not close to landing in the money. My bets went 3-0, nothing in Fantasy though. I read your article, and respect the info. Any good advice for a frustrated DFS player who has a good feel for MLB but can’t seem to make it happen on DraftKings?

  • jettyray

    Referring back to your article about the HR percentage increase as the weather warmed. I was curious about the K percentage as it relates to weather. Were the percentages higher in the colder months or were they unaffected? Does the cooler weather and reduction in HR’s show up via BABIP? It will start to cool off the north shortly so I am just trying to get a feel for what pitcher statistics are affected by the reduction in HR’s

  • CheeseIsGood

    MLB Premium Director

    • 78

      RG Overall Ranking

    • Ranked #58

      RG Tiered Ranking

    • x2

      $1M Prize Winner

    • x2

      2015 DraftKings FFWC Finalist

    @jettyray said...

    Referring back to your article about the HR percentage increase as the weather warmed. I was curious about the K percentage as it relates to weather. Were the percentages higher in the colder months or were they unaffected? Does the cooler weather and reduction in HR’s show up via BABIP? It will start to cool off the north shortly so I am just trying to get a feel for what pitcher statistics are affected by the reduction in HR’s

    K% does not appear to be at all affected, no. Just in glancing at this season and last season, I see no change in BABIP either. I haven’t dug into every stat, but I don’t there is much anything else that is going to be affected by the heat. It’s just when the ball is hit in the air it goes a little further.

  • CheeseIsGood

    MLB Premium Director

    • 78

      RG Overall Ranking

    • Ranked #58

      RG Tiered Ranking

    • x2

      $1M Prize Winner

    • x2

      2015 DraftKings FFWC Finalist

    @stickman1019 said...

    I’m a frustrated DFS player,, last night, another perfect example, focus my lineups around 4 teams, Cincy, Minn, NYY, and AZ, they all scored at least 6 runs—I even mixed in BOS 1B Sam Travis at $2,700 salary who gave me a HR—went w/ Clevinger and Richards on the mound.(Richards struggled but gave me 7K) Still, not close to landing in the money. My bets went 3-0, nothing in Fantasy though. I read your article, and respect the info. Any good advice for a frustrated DFS player who has a good feel for MLB but can’t seem to make it happen on DraftKings?

    There are so many factors related to how many lineups you’re building, what you’re playing, etc. If you are consistently on the right teams with pitchers that do well, it could be a game selection issue.

  • Pandamonious

    • 370

      RG Overall Ranking

    • Ranked #50

      RG Tiered Ranking

    • Moderator

    @stickman1019 said...

    I’m a frustrated DFS player,, last night, another perfect example, focus my lineups around 4 teams, Cincy, Minn, NYY, and AZ, they all scored at least 6 runs—I even mixed in BOS 1B Sam Travis at $2,700 salary who gave me a HR—went w/ Clevinger and Richards on the mound.(Richards struggled but gave me 7K) Still, not close to landing in the money. My bets went 3-0, nothing in Fantasy though. I read your article, and respect the info. Any good advice for a frustrated DFS player who has a good feel for MLB but can’t seem to make it happen on DraftKings?

    Your question requires an answer greater than what can be provided in a one post response, but I’ll try to touch base on it. As Cheese mentioned, it could be contest selection. How many line ups you made and into what contest is useful information. Going just off last night, I can tell you this, and I’ll add it sounds like we had similar approaches and I lost half my investment last night so I can tell you where I think it went wrong.

    1. Cole was only $400 more and scored significantly more than Clevinger at twice the ownership. Ray, was $700 cheaper and scored more than Clevinger at twice the ownership. Gray scored close to Clevinger and was 2.4K cheaper at the same ownership. So. basically Clevinger was the worst pay option last night on DK. That’s hard to overcome.

    2. You didn’t have Nova. He was highly enough owned and dominate enough that again, it’s hard to overcome. Especially when RIchards’ 7 DK points is your SP2. So by being on Richards and Clevinger you’re roughly 30 or so points behind more popular builds.

    3. The offenses you played scored runs, but didn’t do it in a big way. 6 runs off singles, doubles, and walks doesn’t have the scoring impact of HR’s. As has been mentioned here on a regular bases, it’s all about the long ball. Last night most the top line ups involved mini-stacks or no stacking at all and featured just several players who hit one or more HR’s, as not one team went nuts.

    So basically you’re build and approach last night ended up being completely off the path and you’re not going to cash when you’re completely off the path. That doesn’t imply that your approach was wrong, we can just call it variance. Play last nights slate over again tonight, and it could be completely different.

    Going forward, how to remedy your struggles can’t be answered without knowing the approach you’re taking. Cheese obviously offers up great advice here and gives you all the numbers you should be looking at and points you in the right direction, but how one processes and applies it all is what sets us each apart. You may like to be contrarian and always find the pivot, which can be a rocky road at times and greatly successful others and you may just be in a rocky times moment.

    I think having a mindset, approach, belief and confidence in how you handle each slate is key and wavering all over the place can lead one to always be in the wrong place at the wrong time.

    Anyway, sorry if this is too lengthy for everyone here and possibly entirely unhelpful. If any of this is making sense and you want some specific advice on specific things you’re doing feel free to PM and maybe I could be of more help.

  • CheeseIsGood

    MLB Premium Director

    • 78

      RG Overall Ranking

    • Ranked #58

      RG Tiered Ranking

    • x2

      $1M Prize Winner

    • x2

      2015 DraftKings FFWC Finalist

    @Pandamonious said...

    Your question requires an answer greater than what can be provided in a one post response, but I’ll try to touch base on it. As Cheese mentioned, it could be contest selection. How many line ups you made and into what contest is useful information. Going just off last night, I can tell you this, and I’ll add it sounds like we had similar approaches and I lost half my investment last night so I can tell you where I think it went wrong.

    1. Cole was only $400 more and scored significantly more than Clevinger at twice the ownership. Ray, was $700 cheaper and scored more than Clevinger at twice the ownership. Gray scored close to Clevinger and was 2.4K cheaper at the same ownership. So. basically Clevinger was the worst pay option last night on DK. That’s hard to overcome.

    2. You didn’t have Nova. He was highly enough owned and dominate enough that again, it’s hard to overcome. Especially when RIchards’ 7 DK points is your SP2. So by being on Richards and Clevinger you’re roughly 30 or so points behind more popular builds.

    3. The offenses you played scored runs, but didn’t do it in a big way. 6 runs off singles, doubles, and walks doesn’t have the scoring impact of HR’s. As has been mentioned here on a regular bases, it’s all about the long ball. Last night most the top line ups involved mini-stacks or no stacking at all and featured just several players who hit one or more HR’s, as not one team went nuts.

    So basically you’re build and approach last night ended up being completely off the path and you’re not going to cash when you’re completely off the path. That doesn’t imply that your approach was wrong, we can just call it variance. Play last nights slate over again tonight, and it could be completely different.

    Going forward, how to remedy your struggles can’t be answered without knowing the approach you’re taking. Cheese obviously offers up great advice here and gives you all the numbers you should be looking at and points you in the right direction, but how one processes and applies it all is what sets us each apart. You may like to be contrarian and always find the pivot, which can be a rocky road at times and greatly successful others and you may just be in a rocky times moment.

    I think having a mindset, approach, belief and confidence in how you handle each slate is key and wavering all over the place can lead one to always be in the wrong place at the wrong time.

    Anyway, sorry if this is too lengthy for everyone here and possibly entirely unhelpful. If any of this is making sense and you want some specific advice on specific things you’re doing feel free to PM and maybe I could be of more help.

    This is an awesome response, thanks for posting. I want to highlight something you said at the bottom that can probably help a lot of people more than anything. If you can find a person or two with a similar mindset that you get along with well, it is a huge help to have someone to talk through game selection and process together. Not necessarily for lineup building, but someone that can take an unbiased look at your thought process and maybe notice somewhere you can improve or a trap you’ve fallen into that you would never notice on your own.

  • KillerBrees09

    • 484

      RG Overall Ranking

    • Ranked #75

      RG Tiered Ranking

    Always just the best break down of the slate, and the best analysis, bar none……I used to think bar none was an actual candy bar with the word “NONE” on it, and that it tasted amazing so that when people said “bar none” like I just did, they meant what they said was great like the candy ba…..sorry, I digress into my own Jack Handey inspired flashbacks…..like I was saying – GREAT JOB CHEESE!

  • X Unread Thread
  • X Thread with New Replies*
  • *Jumps to your first unread reply

New to DFS?

Be sure to click through our links and use our exclusive promo codes to receive the industry's best sign-up bonuses, including free access to our premium content.

New RotoGrinders Sports Betting Section!

Are you a DFS player who wants to get into sports betting?

If you have access to New Jersey sports betting, then use our DraftKings Sportsbook promo code and our FanDuel Sportsbook promo code to get the best bonuses in the NJ industry.

Those who can take advantage of PA online sports betting should use our SugarHouse PA promo code to get the best sports betting bonus in Pennsylvania.

If you don't yet have access to an online sportsbook, check out Monkey Knife Fight, a prop betting platform available in 31 states. Use our Monkey Knife Fight promo code to get a fantastic bonus.

RotoGrinders.com is the home of the daily fantasy sports community. Our content, rankings, member blogs, promotions and forum discussion all cater to the players that like to create a new fantasy team every day of the week. Our goal is to help all of our members make more money playing daily fantasy sports!

Disclosures: All RotoGrinders content contributors are active DFS players. Contributor screen names can be found on their respective RotoGrinders profile pages. Contributors reserve the right to use players or strategies not discussed in their content on RotoGrinders.