MLB Best Bets for Today: It Ain't Over 'Til It's Under (Friday, May 10th)
MLB Best Bets for today’s action! This article will highlight one game-related total and one player prop under for Friday’s games. Unders are underrated, and we’ll be taking advantage of that edge. Sit back and enjoy the sweat!
Last Week’s Results
Another split last week. Can’t seem to get both picks correct lately. Pittsburgh and Colorado didn’t come close to the first 5 innings total, going scoreless until the 6th inning. More on the Pirates in a bit. Jordan Hicks stumbled against the Phillies with 4 walks. With 3 of them coming by the 3rd inning, it was a pretty quick loss.
Going back to the well with Pittsburgh this week. They’ve been even worse offensively since last week’s fade.
Season Record
- Game Picks: 4-2
- Prop Picks: 4-2
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Chicago Cubs First 5 Innings Under 4 Runs (-140 on BetMGM)
Jared Jones has been phenomenal in his rookie season. He’s held opponents to 3 ERs or less in every outing, and his 2.63 ERA is backed by a 2.95 xERA. He leads qualified starters with a 33.8% K% and has 7+ Ks in all but one start. Jones’ 18.7% swinging-strike rate is nearly 3% higher than 2nd place (Jack Flaherty at 15.8%).
I was on Javier Assad in his last start for another first 5 innings under, and he fired 6 scoreless innings against Milwaukee. This matchup is much easier. Assad has a 1.66 ERA and hasn’t allowed more than 2 ERs in any start this season. His xERA (3.23) says he’s been lucky but not in a way that would suggest he’s going to fall off a cliff. Assad’s arsenal is led by a sinker that ranks among the best pitches in baseball. Only 5 qualified starters have an offering that grades out better by run value than Assad’s sinker. This isn’t out of nowhere either, as the pitch posted a massive +13 run value in 2023. Assad isn’t blowing it by anyone, but he’s getting plenty of weak contact and is keeping the ball in the yard.
Pittsburgh is dead last in OPS, wOBA, and wRC+ vs. RHP this season. Over the past two weeks, they’re down to an impossibly bad 45 wRC+ against RHP. League average for that stat is 100, so the Pirates have been 55% worse than the average offense in that stretch. Chicago has been closer to a normal level of bad vs. RHP. They’re 22nd in wRC+ on the season and 24th over the past two weeks. Just not seeing a ton of scoring here.
Clarke Schmidt Under 16.5 Outs (-130 on BetMGM)
Schmidt has been pretty solid this season. He has a career-high 27.3% strikeout rate, he’s solved some of his issues against lefties, and his ERA sits at 3.50 through 7 starts. However, the Yankees continue to be hesitant with Schmidt during the third time through the order. He’s been capped at 92 pitches and 22 batters faced in all but one outing. Schmidt has exceeded 5.1 IP in just one start, and it was by a single out.
Efficiency has also been a challenge. Schmidt is at 4.16 pitches per plate appearance, which hampers his ability to work beyond the 5th inning. For context, only 4 qualified starters averaged more than 4.1 pitches per plate appearance last season.
Tampa Bay sees the 8th-most pitches per plate appearance. They’re 12th in wRC+ vs. RHP over the past two weeks. It’s a below-average matchup, and Schmidt has struggled with length this season. He could certainly pitch well again and still get yanked prior to the 6th inning.
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