MLB Best Bets Today: Prediction & Picks for Saturday March 30
Major League Baseball is back in full swing, including another full set of games to begin the holiday weekend! Tonight’s MLB evening slate features 6 games with plenty of strong starting pitchers – including Dylan Cease, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Kutter Crawford, Logan Gilbert, and more! In this article, we have leans for Red Sox vs. Mariners, Yankees vs. Astros, and Cubs vs. Rangers.
Below, we take a look at MLB best bets for today — Saturday, March 30, 2024!
MLB Best Bets Today — Saturday, March 30
Boston Red Sox vs. Seattle Mariners (-150), O/U 7.5
Last night, the Boston Red Sox and Seattle Mariners combined for 1 run on 8 hits. Tonight’s starting pitching matchup doesn’t feature the same elite arms that we saw on tap yesterday, but Kutter Crawford and Logan Gilbert are still plenty good.
Crawford is a legitimate breakout candidate in 2024 after posting a 3.25 xERA and 3.83 FIP last season across 129.1 innings of work. The addition of Kyle Boddy to the organization has already proven to provide enormous dividends to the team’s pitching staff – there are likely more fun surprises on the way. Gilbert ranked in the 95th percentile in BB% last year en route to delivering a 3.73 ERA, 3.69 xERA, and 3.85 FIP.
Seattle is home to one of the most pitcher-friendly ballparks in the big leagues, and we should continue to see that in full effect with the cold temperatures in the forecast once again on Friday. The game is technically played in a dome, but it’s not a completely insulated dome in the same way that other stadiums are constructed, which allows some outdoor weather influence. Expect another low-scoring affair between these two teams this evening.
- MLB PICK: Under 7.5 (-110), BetMGM
New York Yankees vs. Houston Astros (-134), O/U 9
Through 2 days of MLB action, the Houston Astros and Oakland Athletics have the same record! That probably won’t last very long, and it could change as soon as tonight. After dropping each of the first 2 games of their series against the New York Yankees, Houston will turn to Hunter Brown this evening looking to get back on the right track.
Brown had a 5.09 ERA in 2023, but his 4.27 xERA and 4.37 FIP suggest he was much better than his surface-level numbers. He doesn’t have outstanding command, but his ability to get ground balls and earn strikeouts give him multiple ways to get outs each time he takes the mound.
On the other side of this starting pitching matchup, Marcus Stroman is coming off of a season in which he ranked in only the 32nd percentile in K% and 40th percentile in BB%. His ability to get ground balls at an elite rate has allowed him to continue posting good numbers in recent seasons, but he gives up a lot of hard contact – a worrisome sign heading into a matchup against a strong Houston lineup.
The Astros are in a good bounce-back spot tonight against a hittable pitcher. They should be able to break into the win column for the first time in 2024.
- MLB PICK: Houston Astros Moneyline (-134), BetMGM
Chicago Cubs vs. Texas Rangers (-125), O/U 9.5
In 2023, the Cubs’ offense ranked 7th in OPS, 10th in wRC+, 7th in wOBA, 8th in batting average, and 7th in ISO against LHP. On Saturday, they get to see Cody Bradford, who struggled to a 4.77 FIP, 20.0 K%, 1.54 WHIP, and .301 opponent batting average as a starter last year. He only threw 33.2 innings as a starter, but his profile didn’t project well long-term considering his lack of strikeouts and inability to induce ground balls. Only 8 starting pitchers (min. 100 IP) in 2023 had a 20.0 K% or lower and a ground ball rate below 40%- none of them finished with better than a 4.27 FIP, and only one of them finished with better than a 4.87 FIP. All 8 pitchers had a 5.03 xERA or worse.
On the other side of this matchup, we have the soft-tossing Kyle Hendricks, who allowed 3+ earned runs in 11 of his 24 starts last year. Hendricks was one of 31 pitchers (min. 100 IP) to post a sub-20% strikeout rate for the season. From that list of 31 pitchers, 27 players had a 4.27 FIP or worse and all 31 players had a 4.18 xERA or worse. The Rangers are missing a couple of bats to begin 2024, but they ranked 3rd in OPS, 4th in wRC+, 3rd in wOBA, 3rd in batting average, and 2nd in ISO against right-handed pitching in 2023. Even if we bake in some regression, this is likely to be a very good offense.
Expect an abundance of loud contact early in this matchup. The over appears to be a good look.
- MLB PICK: OVER 5 – First 5 Innings (-125), bet365
Image Credit: Getty Images