MLB Daily Grind Down: April 11th Part 2
Night Games
NY Yankees at Cleveland
| NY Yankees | Cleveland | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Progressive Field | 7:05 PM | ||||||
| Phil Hughes (0-1 REC, 6.75 ERA, 5.1 Avg IP) | Zach McAllister (0-1 REC, 3.00 ERA, 5.1 Avg IP) | ||||||
| PvB | (16-72) H/AB, 5 XBHA, 2 HRA, 17 KA | PvB | (2-14) H/AB, 2 XBHA, 0 HRA, 2 KA | ||||
| ROAD | 92.2 IP, 4.76 ERA, 0.279 BAA, 7.8 K/9 | HOME | 73.2 IP, 4.64 ERA, 0.281 BAA, 7.8 K/9 | ||||
| BATTER SPLITS BREAKDOWN | |||||||
NYY BvP  | NYY vs R | CLE BvP | CLE vs R | ||||
| Note: Batter Splits Above Open in Pop Up Window | |||||||
Pitchers
- The OU line is set at 8 with NYY the slight favorite at -120. Phil Hughes is scheduled to start but reports say he has the stomach flu so he may miss his turn. This will only be his second start back from injury and he made it only 4 in his first outing. His road ERA was 4.76 last year. All signs point to…. Avoid
- Zach McAllister looked okay in his first outing. He is a better pitcher on the road than he is at home. His home ERA was 4.64 a year ago. His K/9 ratio puts him in play but his HR/9 was 1.4 last year. He is facing a Yankees team batting .281 with 15 HR in 8 games. Avoid
Batters
- Carlos Santana is still batting .500 on the season. He is an auto plug to me right now at C. Michael Bourn is also off to a hot start and is 2-6 vs. Hughes. A sneaky good play is Mark Reynolds who has 4 HR to stat the season. The HRs are not surprising. What is though is that he has only 8 Ks. He has2 HR in 12 AB vs. Hughes. His BAA is .250 which is what you expect when you take him. You just hope that only hit goes long.
- The Yankees have not seen McAllister. I like the hot left-handed bats though. Robinson Cano, Travis Hafner, and Brett Garner all make good plays. Kevin Youkilis has been hot also. Vernon Wells is batting ,360 on the season he is still pretty cheap on some sites.
Chicago White Sox at Washington
| Chicago White Sox | Washington | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nationals Park | 7:05 PM | ||||||
| Dylan Axelrod (0-0 REC, 0.00 ERA, 5.1 Avg IP) | Dan Haren (0-1 REC, 13.50 ERA, 6.1 Avg IP) | ||||||
| PvB | (0-0) H/AB, 0 XBHA, 0 HRA, 0 KA | PvB | (27-98) H/AB, 6 XBHA, 4 HRA, 19 KA | ||||
| ROAD | 28.1 IP, 2.54 ERA, 0.231 BAA, 7.9 K/9 | HOME | 92.1 IP, 4.68 ERA, 0.278 BAA, 6.5 K/9 | ||||
| BATTER SPLITS BREAKDOWN | |||||||
| CHW BvP | CHW vs R | WSN BvP | WSN vs R | ||||
| Note: Batter Splits Above Open in Pop Up Window | |||||||
Pitchers
- The OU line for this game is 8 with WAS the strong favorite at -160. Anytime I see a low OU and a heavy favorite I immediately think to target that team’s SP. Dan Haren did not look good in his last couple of spring outings and he got rocked in his first start of the season. The current Whitesoxs are batting .276 as a team vs. him and have been swinging the bats pretty well. He has great upside and I am going to trust Vegas on this one and say Target
- Dylan Axelrod is another young pitcher with potential. He pitched well in his first outing but it was vs. SEA. He is a high K/9 player but posted a 5.47 ERA as a starter last year. He faces a very tough WAS order that has 15 HR on the season and is the heavy underdog in this one. However, his GPP upside and the low OU of this game make me say if the price is right … Target
Batters
- Alex Rios has been on fire and he has .300 BAA vs. Haren. I like him today. Jeff Keppinger is 8-16 vs him and Paul Konerko sports a .368 BAA vs. him as well. Alexi Ramirez is batting .310 on the season and is cheap a lot of places. The low OU scars me into saying only take one or two of these guys though.
- There is no BvP data vs. Axelrod. Still, it is never a bad idea to use Bryce Harper vs. a righty. Denard sSpan has also been swinging the bat well at the top of the order. The one guy I would avoid is Adam LaRoach. I know he hit 2 HRs the other day but he has just 3 hits on the season. I do not think he is healthy.
Baltimore at Boston
| Baltimore | Boston | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fenway Park | 7:10 PM | ||||||
| Chris Tillman (0-0 REC, 12.27 ERA, 5.0 Avg IP) | Alfredo Aceves (0-0 REC, 10.38 ERA, 5.0 Avg IP) | ||||||
| PvB | (10-51) H/AB, 2 XBHA, 0 HRA, 9 KA | PvB | (26-119) H/AB, 12 XBHA, 1 HRA, 25 KA | ||||
| ROAD | 47.1 IP, 3.04 ERA, 0.225 BAA, 7 K/9 | HOME | 39.2 IP, 7.03 ERA, 0.267 BAA, 9.1 K/9 | ||||
| BATTER SPLITS BREAKDOWN | |||||||
| BAL BvP | BAL vs R | BOS BvP | BOS vs R | ||||
| Note: Batter Splits Above Open in Pop Up Window | |||||||
Pitchers
- The OU line for this game is 9.5 with BOS favored at -125. You would think the OU would be a little higher since they have BOS favored to win with a reliever on the mound. I do not even think Aceves will pitch the 5 IP it takes to get the W so Avoid
- In 15 starts last year Chris Tillman posted a 2.97 ERA and a 6.91 k/9. His road and home ERA were comparable. He got hit hard in his last outing and faces a Red Sox team that is batting .300 with a .950 OPS vs. right-handers. Vegas does not like him to win vs. a reliever and the high OU make me think Avoid
Batters
- BOS is sending a RP to start this game. He has been successful as an RP but it is never good when they make this jump. Adam Jones has been on fire and you have to like the righty/lefty matchup of Chris Davis and Nick Markakis. Manny Manchado and Nate McLouth also sport good BvPs vs. Aceves. Just look out for the clouds.
- As unsharp as Tillman looked in his first outing, you have to think everyone is in play. Dustin Pedroia has the best numbers vs. him and is red hot. I also like a red hot Shane Victorino and the righty/lefty matchup of Jacoby Elisbury
Oakland at LA Angels
| Oakland | LA Angels | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Angel Stadium | 10:05 PM | ||||||
| A.J. Griffin (1-0 REC, 3.00 ERA, 5.1 Avg IP) | Jason Vargas (0-0 REC, 1.59 ERA, 6.0 Avg IP) | ||||||
| PvB | (7-24) H/AB, 0 XBHA, 0 HRA, 5 KA | PvB | (35-148) H/AB, 12 XBHA, 5 HRA, 23 KA | ||||
| ROAD | 40.1 IP, 2.9 ERA, 0.256 BAA, 8.5 K/9 | HOME | 98.2 IP, 2.74 ERA, 0.219 BAA, 6.3 K/9 | ||||
| BATTER SPLITS BREAKDOWN | |||||||
| OAK BvP | OAK vs L | LAA BvP | LAA vs R | ||||
| Note: Batter Splits Above Open in Pop Up Window | |||||||
Pitchers
- The OU line for this game is 8.5 with LAA the favorites at -138 which means Vegas likes Jason Vargas to get the win. Although Vargas manage to hold TEX to one run in his first outing he gave up 8 hits in 5.1 IP for a 1.72 WHIP. Not good. Still the lefty gets a team that’s best hitters are left-handed in a spacious home park. His 5.84 K/9 make him only useful as a second pitcher so in that format Target
- A.J. Griffin pitched well in his first outing but it was also vs. SEA. The youngster pitched well on the road a year ago and he posted a 7 K/9 ratio. The angels have a .297 BAA vs. him 24 AB. However, OAK is 7-2 to start the season and LAA just 2-6. The low OU plus his upside to me say Target
Batters
- Despite concerns about their offense, OAK is batting .276 as a team. Coco Crisp has great BvPs today and has been hot to start the season. Jed Lowrie is a solid play since he hits lefties well and is batting .412 to start the season. Yoenis Cepedes also has 2 HR in 16 AB vs Vargas.
- Josh Hamilton sports a .400 BAA vs. Griffin. I like him since his price has dropped and I do not need to remind you what he did to right handed pitchers a year ago. Albert Pujols has been hot and has a .333 BAA today.
Texas at Seattle
| Texas | Seattle | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Safeco Field | 10:10 PM | ||||||
| Justin Grimm (0-0 REC, 0.00 ERA, 3.1 Avg IP) | Felix Hernandez (1-1 REC, 2.57 ERA, 6.2 Avg IP) | ||||||
| PvB | (0-1) H/AB, 0 XBHA, 0 HRA, 0 KA | PvB | (78-305) H/AB, 28 XBHA, 10 HRA, 64 KA | ||||
| ROAD | 4 IP, 9 ERA, 0.267 BAA, 9 K/9 | HOME | 129.2 IP, 2.78 ERA, 0.235 BAA, 9.5 K/9 | ||||
| BATTER SPLITS BREAKDOWN | |||||||
| TEX BvP | TEX vs R | SEA BvP | SEA vs R | ||||
| Note: Batter Splits Above Open in Pop Up Window | |||||||
Pitchers
- Vegas has the OU line of this game at only 7 and SEA favored at -148. Why? King Felix! Felix Hernandez has looked every bit of royalty in his first two starts. He draws a TEX team that was just shutdown by Moore at home. They game started after a 1:45 rain delay which means they had to travel late to the West Coast for tonight’s game. Things are looking good for the king. The only question is will SEA get him any runs. Target
- The Rangers send an AAA call-up to the hill tonight. J. Grimm has pitched very well to start the season in the minors and he gets his first MLB start of the season in a pitcher friendly park vs. a SEA team that is only batting .213 on the season. He has 13 Ks in 14 major league innings. The OU is only 7 and strangers things have happened. If you want to gamble, his GPP upside says Target
Batters
Much like the rest of the league, not many Rangers have much success vs. the king. I would not put too much faith in the ones that have. The late travel plus the pitcher’s park is enough for me to recommend you simply move to greener matchups for the evening. I might be willing to take a flyer or Lance Berkman ripping a few doubles in that big outfield. He has a .667 BAA. Elvis Andrus and David Murphy are also both batting over .300 vs. him. Do not get cute. Hits will be hard to come by.
Michael Saunders, Kendrey Morales have been the only Mariner that has been swinging a hot bat. Mike Morse has 6 HR on the season. I see this game going one of two ways. The rookie pitches well but these guys still produce some or he implodes and these guys lead the charge.
LA Dodgers at San Diego
| LA Dodgers | San Diego | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Petco Park | 10:10 PM | ||||||
| Zack Greinke (1-0 REC, 0.00 ERA, 6.0 Avg IP) | Jason Marquis (0-1 REC, 3.00 ERA, 5.2 Avg IP) | ||||||
| PvB | (12-48) H/AB, 6 XBHA, 3 HRA, 8 KA | PvB | (31-128) H/AB, 12 XBHA, 2 HRA, 17 KA | ||||
| ROAD | 112.2 IP, 3.91 ERA, 0.272 BAA, 6.6 K/9 | HOME | 63 IP, 5 ERA, 0.31 BAA, 6.7 K/9 | ||||
| BATTER SPLITS BREAKDOWN | |||||||
| LAD BvP | LAD vs R | SDP BvP | SDP vs R | ||||
| Note: Batter Splits Above Open in Pop Up Window | |||||||
Pitchers
- ZacK Greinke takes the hill in another game with an OU of 7 and LAD as the heavy favorites at -160. The CY Young award winner faces a very weak hitting Padres team and while it is on the road, it is in a very pitcher friendly park. I would load the two late game aces tonight. Target |
- Jason Marquis had a good first outing. He has held the current dodgers to a team to .242 BAA. I like him to limit the effectivenes of Dodgers bats but I can not see him getting the win tonight. He might make a sneaky play as a sneaky second option if he is cheap enough but otherwise Avoid
Batters
- If you are going to take anyopne on LAD make it the hot Carl Crawford and Adrian Gonzalez. Both have the lefty/righty matchup and they have been carrying the Dodgers offense. I am advicing a wait in see approach to Matt Kemp. He is batting just .167 on the season and went bust in a couple of juicy matchups on paper.
- Do yourself a favor and pretend the Padres do not play tonight. For all practicle purposes, they will not be.