MLB Daily Grind Down: April 8th Night Games

by Kyle Koch (Jackandsoda) Last Updated 2013-04-10 21:34:08

Alright I hope your day games are going great for you here is the Grind Down for tonights 6 to get you ready for a second wave of action. Paul Goldschmidt is my play of tonight much like we earlier honored Will Middlebrooks earlier and his 3 HR day yesterday.

The late games seem to all be headed to low scoring results so spread your picks across teams tonight and fade stacking more than a couple of guys from each team. Although, I am not convinced De La Rosa can still pitch in this league so if you are going to stack anyone make it the Giants. That is if you have the stones to take a team batting .224 on the season.

NY Mets at Philadelphia

BATTER SPLITS BREAKDOWN
NYM BvP		NYM vs R		PHI BvP		PHI vs R
Note: Batter Splits Above Open in Pop Up Window

• Vegas has the line of this one set at 7.5 with the Phillies favored at -138. This is a matchup of two big pitcher who are capable of GPP winning days. Roy Halladay saw his ERA double last year and he was hit hard by ATL in his first game. Might be signs that he is no longer than dominated player he once was. His K/9 ratio is still around 8 which is very good. I would not worry about his first start too much because ATL always hits him well. If he gets shelled tonight though…….

• Matt Harvey won a lot of people some money with the 10 Ks he recorded the last time he took the mound. His 10.62 K/9 means he is always in play. After his opening day performance, his price has gone up so it is not enough for him to pitch well for you. He needs to get the win. If you think Halliday is done then shot away. Otherwise, trust Vegas on this one.

Advantage: Halladay (Vet will rise to the challenge of the hot youngster)

• I do not know where his power has gone but David Wright has a .462 OBP. Marlon Byrd has good splits vs. Roy and is still pretty cheap on a lot of sites. The rest of the team is batting only .182 vs. him. I might take a shot on a hot John Buck who is maintaining a .440 BA.

• The Phils are batting just .147 vs. Harvey with 11 Ks in 34 AB. Jimmy Rollins is the lone Phil who has hit him well with a .400 BAA in 5 AB both hits were for extra bases. Chase Utley is batting .391 on the season and looks back to MVP form. Those are the only two guys I would consider in this game.

Atlanta at Miami

BATTER SPLITS BREAKDOWN
ATL BvP		ATL vs R		MIA BvP		MIA vs L
Note: Batter Splits Above Open in Pop Up Window

• Believe it or not but an OU line of 8 is on the higher side of things tonight. ATL is favored to win tonight at -159. Paul Maholm takes the mound for the Braves tonight coming off a 5.1 IP, 0 ER, and 6K outing. He takes his 4.26 road ERA to MIA, a team that has been hitting the ball well the last couple of games. Maholm gets enough Ks to be a factor. He can be a sneaky good play if he can avoid giving up too many runs.

• Kevin Slowey had a nice first outing. I expect his ERA to improve in the national league but how much better can 6.67 get? I am not fooled by the 1 ER from his last appearance. He gave up 4 hits and 3 walks in only 5.1 innings. A bad player coming off an injury is a no go for me no matter how cheap.

Advantage: Maholm (It might not be pretty but he will get the win)

• MIA is batting .278 as a team vs. Malholm. Giancario Stanton, Juan Pierre, Justin Ruggiano, and Placido Polanco all have BAA vs. him of .333 or more. They should stay hot today.

• There is not much BvP data for ATL vs. Slowey but B.J. Upton has taken him yard before. Justin Upton is also .318 on the season with 5 HRs. The braves should get to Slowey today.

Tampa Bay at Texas

BATTER SPLITS BREAKDOWN
TBR BvP		TBR vs R		TEX BvP		TEX vs R
Note: Batter Splits Above Open in Pop Up Window

TB vs TEX

• The OU for this game is the highest of the night at 9. TEX is favored at -151. Alexi Ogando went 6.1 with0 ER and 10 Ks. The 10 Ks are a little higher than you can expect most nights from him. He had a 9.00 K/9 a year ago but that number was aided by a move to the bullpen. You can expect to see numbers more like his 2011 totals of 6.71 which is still good just not great. He is in line to get the win tonight and should make a good number 2 guy if his price is right and he can hold the rays to 2 ER.

• Hellickson actually pitched better on the road with an ERA of 2.95 than he did at home last year and his ERA vs TEX last year was a 1.50. He got shelled in his last outing but looked good in spring. His K/9 of 6.31 makes him playable. Many expect for his K/9 to be around 8 this season.

Advantage: Ogando (-151 by Vegas, TB bats are cooling)

• After a hot start at the plate TB has cooled off a bit and their team BA is now at .251. The current Rays though have a combined .345 BAA vs. Ogando. Though, it is in just a games worth of at bats. Ben Zobrist and Evan Longoria have been hot and Arlington produces runs.

• The last time Lance Berkman faced Hellickson he went 2-4 with 2 HRs. He is one of 3 Rangers that are batting over .400 on the season with Craig Gentry and Nelson Cruz making up the other 2. Also, Lance OBP is .542. I would avoid the two Lefties of Moreland and Murphy until they start swinging the bat better and Hellickson actually held Left-handers to a lower average last year than he did righties.

Pittsburgh at Arizona

BATTER SPLITS BREAKDOWN
PIT BvP		PIT vs R		ARI BvP		ARI vs L
Note: Batter Splits Above Open in Pop Up Window

• The line for this game is an 8.5 and is the second highest for tonight. In case you have not figured it out by now I am not going to recommending that you stack anyone. A spread seems the best way to go. ARI is favored by -126. Trevor Cahill gave up 3 ER in his first outing at home which is not surprising because his home ERA was 4.68 a year ago compared to a stellar 2.91 road ERA. He is at home again and at -126 is not a lock to get the win but he draws a PIT team that is batting just .119 to start the season so he could make a nice number 2 guy or a sneaky play in a single pitcher GPP if he can hit on the high end of his 7.09 k/9. Just know no pitcher is safe in ARI.

• Wandy Rodriguez had a nice first start with 6 IP, ) ER and 6 Ks. Wandy is a pitcher who pitches much better at home than he does on the road but his 3.92 road ERA from a year ago is serviceable. He has yet to have the misfortune of pitching in Chase Field and he gave up 4 ER in 6 IP the last time he faced this team at home.

Advantage: Cahill (Wandy in for a long night)

• PIT as a team has just a .162 BAA vs. Cahill. As bad as they have been hitting to start the season, it is hard to recommend any of them. ARI is place that can help get your bats going, though. Andrew McCutchen hit a HR yesterday. It was the Pirates first on the year.

• 5 of ARI starters are batting over .300 on the season, Gerardo Parra, Paul Goldschmidt, Aaron Hill, Jason Kubel, and Miguel Montero. As a team they have a .278 BAA vs. Rodriguez. Paul Goldschmidt kills lefties and he is my play of the day despite being 0-5 vs. Wandy. Hill and Martin Prado have the best BvPs today.

Houston at Seattle

BATTER SPLITS BREAKDOWN
HOU BvP		HOU vs L		SEA BvP		SEA vs R
Note: Batter Splits Above Open in Pop Up Window

• Two poor hitting teams face off in a pitchers park. The line for this game is a low 7.5 with SEA favored at -137. Like Mario eating a magic Mushroom, Joe Saunders gets the huge bump up facing the Astros who lead the league in Ks. Ks count for almost half of their put outs. Saunders had a rough outing his last time out and is not a pitcher who has been known to overpower anyone in quite awhile. His 5.77 K/9 rate is a little to low for me and I am not sure his team scores enough to get the win.

• Phillip Humbers perfect game was less than a year ago but it seems like a decade. He had a positive first outing giving up only 1 ER over 5.1 IP with 2 K. He had a 7.50 K/9 ratio a year ago and is pitching in a friendly ballpark. He could be a nice against the grain play tonight in a GPP. Oh yeah, that perfect game he pitched was in Safeco Field.

Advantage: Humber (More Upside)

• The only two Astros who are even worth mentioning are Jose Altuve and Jason Maxwell, batting .333 and .381. Altuve is also 3-4 vs. Saunders

• The current Mariners are a combined 13-54 vs Humber with only 5 XBH. Mike Morse has 5 HR to start the season but he also has 10 Ks in 29 AB. Kendrys Morales bat is heating up also. He has rasied his batting average to .280 after a couple of strong games.

Colorado at San Francisco

BATTER SPLITS BREAKDOWN
COL BvP		COL vs L		SFG BvP		SFG vs L
Note: Batter Splits Above Open in Pop Up Window

• Vegas has the line for this game set at 7.5 with SF favored at -137. Madison Bumgarner went 8 IP, 0 ER, and 6 Ks in his first start. With a 2.38 home ERA and a 8.25 K/9, he is always a good play at AT&T Park. He went 3-0 vs. the Rockies last year with an 3.03 ERA. All signs point to yes on this one.

• Jorge De La Rosa does not need an explination. Do not play him now or ever.

Advantage: Bumgarner (not even close)

• COL sports a nice team .288 BAA vs. Bumgarner. Troy Tulowitzki, Todd Helton, and Chris Nelson are all batting .400 or more and Carlos Gonzalez has .364 BAA and 2 HRs vs. him. However, COL team batting average was only .241 on the road last year compared to .301 at home so much of that success comes from the three starts he made in Coors Field a year ago. Tulowitzki has been real hot though batting over .400 to start the season. I’d play him with so many limited good options at shortstop.

• The Giants have started to turn it around. Angel Pagan, and Pablo Sandoval have been the Giant’s best bats and look for Buster Posey to get things going vs. a pitcher that he is 4-11 against with 3 walks. That’s .500 OBP.