MLB Daily Grind Down: Friday, August 30th

by Ethan Haskell (Ethan) Last Updated 2013-08-30 19:01:15

The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down article will give you an in-depth analysis into the MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: Any Fantasy Point Average Listed Uses FanDuel Scoring. For more info on FanDuel’s MLB Scoring System, check out the scoring systems section of our FanDuel Review

• FPAB – Fantasy Points Per At Bat
• K% – Strikeout Percentage
• K/9 – Strikeouts Per 9 IP

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St. Louis vs. Pittsburgh

7:05 PM	St. Louis – ROAD					Pittsburgh – HOME
TEAM BATTING	AVG	OPS	K%	FPAB		AVG	OPS	K%	FPAB
SEASON	0.272	0.743	17.90%	0.61		0.245	0.705	22.40%	0.55
VS. LEFT/RIGHT	0.239	0.679	18.90%	0.41		0.241	0.696	22.10%	0.41
SP STATS	Miller – RHP					Liriano – LHP
	WHIP	ERA	K/9	FPPG		WHIP	ERA	K/9	FPPG
SEASON	1.15	2.90	9.76	11.73		1.23	2.74	9.29	13.60
LAST 14 DAYS	0.99	2.19	10.41	13.55		1.55	3.27	13.09	13.50
BATTER SPLITS	Note: Batter Splits Below Open in Pop Up Window
	STL vs L		STL BvP			PIT vs R		PIT BvP

Pitcher Grind Down

• Shelby Miller – Love his potential and definitely appreciated his work earlier in the season but I’m not gonna jump back to him after 1 good start last time out against a Braves offense that was lacking many of it’s strongest bats. Fact remains his ERA is 2 points higher on the road and he has an ERA of 4 in 3 starts against the Pirates this season.

• Francisco Liriano – As much as the Cards offense intimidates me, he has to be in play today. 1.39 Home ERA, 1.14 ERA vs. STL in 2 Starts and a .153 batting average against Cards hitters this season is amazing. I have him as my 5th ranked starter tonight (a night with a ton of good options), but he still has the most upside of any.

Batter Grind Down

• Cardinals – Don’t really like the Cards bats against Liriano.

• Pirates – Miller has struggled against lefties this season a bit, allowing them to hit .268 with a .757 OPS against. Luckily for Shelby, the only real left handed threat in that Pirates lineup is Pedro. Low over/under in this game too so I’d avoid all hitters not named Alvarez.

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Baltimore vs. NY Yankees

7:05 PM	Baltimore – ROAD					NY Yankees – HOME
TEAM BATTING	AVG	OPS	K%	FPAB		AVG	OPS	K%	FPAB
SEASON	0.264	0.755	18.10%	0.63		0.246	0.685	19.40%	0.55
VS. LEFT/RIGHT	0.251	0.708	19.10%	0.44		0.244	0.687	19.70%	0.41
SP STATS	Gonzalez – RHP					Sabathia – LHP
	WHIP	ERA	K/9	FPPG		WHIP	ERA	K/9	FPPG
SEASON	1.28	3.77	6.55	8.75		1.35	4.81	7.72	10.30
LAST 14 DAYS	1.86	2.57	5.14	3.00		1.79	6.94	9.64	9.10
BATTER SPLITS	Note: Batter Splits Below Open in Pop Up Window
	BAL vs L		BAL BvP			NYY vs R		NYY BvP

Pitcher Grind Down

• Miguel Gonzalez – Given just how hot the Yankees have been of late, I don’t know if I can buy into the HR prone Gonzalez in the HR friendly Yankee Stadium. He has pitched well vs. NYY this season though with 13 K’s in 19 IP and a 2ish ERA

• CC Sabathia – I’ll give CC this. His 4.06 Home ERA beats his 5.56 Road ERA by a long shot. With that said, he’s just not the same pitcher again and I don’t know if he can bring the ace stuff to the table that is needed to stymie a strong Orioles offense. The over/under in this game is at 8.5 and rightfully so. I’d avoid both pitchers in non-GPP formats.

Batter Grind Down

• Orioles – JJ Hardy is 9-24 off Sabathia with a HR and Adam Jones is a .300 hitter in 55 career AB’s against CC as well. Both are certainly in play along with Matt Wieters who hits lefties well in general. Consider Chris Davis too. CC has lost a bit off his fastball and Davis should be able to turn on it despite the L/L matchup. If he can do that, it’s not a far shot to that right field porch.

• Yankees – No real big sample sizes for Yankee bats against Gonzalez. Cano is just 2 for 14 which is uninspiring but Gonzalez tends to have some reverse splits anyways. Righties have taken him yard 13 times this season compared to just 5 from lefties so consider targeting A-Fraud instead of Cano from that Yanks roster.

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Cleveland vs. Detroit

7:05 PM	Cleveland – ROAD					Detroit – HOME
TEAM BATTING	AVG	OPS	K%	FPAB		AVG	OPS	K%	FPAB
SEASON	0.253	0.732	21.10%	0.63		0.282	0.785	16.90%	0.65
VS. LEFT/RIGHT	0.248	0.723	21.70%	0.48		0.286	0.787	16.30%	0.52
SP STATS	McAllister – RHP					Porcello – RHP
	WHIP	ERA	K/9	FPPG		WHIP	ERA	K/9	FPPG
SEASON	1.31	3.51	6.77	9.50		1.31	4.49	6.84	8.76
LAST 14 DAYS	0.99	1.98	6.82	14.10		1.44	6.35	8.11	8.55
BATTER SPLITS	Note: Batter Splits Below Open in Pop Up Window
	CLE vs R		CLE BvP			DET vs R		DET BvP

Pitcher Grind Down

• Zach McAllister – Coming off 3 consecutive quality starts, I can see the attraction to this pick. But he’s facing a team that mashes at home and I don’t think I could roster him in non-GPPs. If Miggy can’t go though, I suppose only having to get through Jackson/Hunter/Fielder could make him more enticing.

• Rick Porcello – He doesn’t have more than 6 K’s in any of his last 10 starts so the upside here is limited. But he has a 1.5 ERA and 1 K/IP average in 3 starts against the Indians this season AND Cleveland is coming in cold. I don’t hate the play for a cheap price.

Batter Grind Down

• Cleveland – Kipnis is 7-23 lifetime off Porcello and Santana has 10 hits in 31 AB’s against, so both are viable options though neither have been tearing it up offensively of late. Porcello is also allowing lefties to hit over .300 against this season, putting most of the Indians lineup in play.

• Detroit – Fielder is 4-10 off McAllister, who has allowed lefties to hit for a .754 OPS-against on the year. Consider Fielder, Dirks and VMart as good plays from the DET lineup and Don Kelly as well if you need a bargain bin play. The over/under of 9 with DET being a heavy favorite leads me to believe Vegas sees some runs coming out of the Tigers.

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Kansas City vs. Toronto

7:07 PM	Kansas City – ROAD					Toronto – HOME
TEAM BATTING	AVG	OPS	K%	FPAB		AVG	OPS	K%	FPAB
SEASON	0.258	0.688	16.60%	0.54		0.252	0.733	18.00%	0.62
VS. LEFT/RIGHT	0.260	0.688	16.30%	0.40		0.255	0.748	17.90%	0.50
SP STATS	Santana – RHP					Buehrle – LHP
	WHIP	ERA	K/9	FPPG		WHIP	ERA	K/9	FPPG
SEASON	1.16	3.21	7.12	10.78		1.32	4.08	6.17	9.33
LAST 14 DAYS	1.39	3.55	8.85	9.60		1.32	1.66	6.79	13.73
BATTER SPLITS	Note: Batter Splits Below Open in Pop Up Window
	KCR vs L		KCR BvP			TOR vs R		TOR BvP

Pitcher Grind Down

• Ervin Santana – In his only start vs. Toronto he went 8 innings giving up just one run on, you guessed it, a HR. Santana has been great this season but his kryptonite continues to be the long ball (which is the one thing Toronto can do). I like the play because the Jays don’t seem to be all that committed to this season anymore but I would proceed with caution.

• Mark Buehrle – I don’t care how much better he is at home or how good he looked last time out against Houston. I wouldn’t roster him. Ever.

Batter Grind Down

• Royals – Billy Butler and Justin Maxwell mash lefties pretty good so I definitely see some value in either of those plays against Buehrle. Mark has been relatively unhittable by lefties on the year though so I’d fade Gordon/MooseTacos/Hosmer. Butler is 20-57 with 3 HR lifetime against Buehrle as well.

• Blue Jays – Adam Lind is 8-32 with 3 HR off of Santana and hits well at home so I’d consider him as the premiere Blue Jays hitting option. Santana allows lefties and righties to hit around .250 though so if you want Toronto bats there’s no real hand to target tonight.

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