MLB Daily Grind Down: Friday, September 27th

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2013-09-27 21:12:04

The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down article will give you an in-depth analysis into the MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: Any Fantasy Point Average Listed Uses FanDuel Scoring. For more info on FanDuel’s MLB Scoring System, check out the scoring systems section of our FanDuel Review

• FPAB – Fantasy Points Per At Bat
• K% – Strikeout Percentage
• K/9 – Strikeouts Per 9 IP

Boston vs. Baltimore

7:05 PM	Boston – ROAD					Baltimore – HOME
TEAM BATTING	AVG	OPS	K%	FPAB		AVG	OPS	K%	FPAB
SEASON	0.273	0.780	20.40%	0.68		0.264	0.755	18.10%	0.63
VS. LEFT/RIGHT	0.284	0.819	20.40%	0.57		0.267	0.767	18.00%	0.52
SP STATS	Buchholz – RHP					Feldman – RHP
	WHIP	ERA	K/9	FPPG		WHIP	ERA	K/9	FPPG
SEASON	1.03	1.60	8.19	14.61		1.15	3.51	6.58	9.93
LAST 14 DAYS	1.06	1.06	5.82	11.33		1.11	3.32	7.58	9.33
BATTER SPLITS	Note: Batter Splits Below Open in Pop Up Window
	BOS vs R		BOS BvP			BAL vs R		BAL BvP

Pitcher Grind Down

• Clay Buchholz – These games are going to be tough to attack from a fantasy perspective. The Red Sox have already clinched their division and are a win away from clinching home field. At this point, health is going to be the most important thing heading into the playoffs, but until they have home field locked up, I think you can expect anyone that is in the lineup to play the whole game. As far as pitching is concerned, I think Buchholz will pitch between 6-7 innings tonight, but don’t expect him to pitch too deep into the game. Rating = 5

• Scott Feldman – Feldman has pitched well this season with a 3.51 ERA. However, he isn’t a high strikeout pitcher and even if the Red Sox give a few guys the night off, they are still a very potent offense. With only a few nights left of baseball, now is the time to play it safe and end the season on a good note. Rating = 3

Batter Grind Down

BOS – Again, check the lineup and have confidence that anyone in that lineup will play the whole game. The Red Sox have been bombs away against Feldman in the past. Here is a list of all Sox that have hit homers off of Feldman: Napoli (2), Ortiz (2), Drew (1), Salty (1), and Pedroia (1). I like the Sox tonight if the price isn’t too outrageous.

BAL – Buchholz has 3 starts since coming off of the DL and has only given up a combined 2 earned runs in those starts. He is picking up right where he left off. To me, the only play on the Orioles is Chris Davis and I’d use him mainly as a GPP play.

Tampa Bay vs. Toronto

7:07 PM	Tampa Bay – ROAD					Toronto – HOME
TEAM BATTING	AVG	OPS	K%	FPAB		AVG	OPS	K%	FPAB
SEASON	0.262	0.748	18.70%	0.62		0.252	0.733	18.00%	0.62
VS. LEFT/RIGHT	0.250	0.734	19.00%	0.48		0.254	0.744	18.00%	0.49
SP STATS	Hellickson – RHP					Dickey – RHP
	WHIP	ERA	K/9	FPPG		WHIP	ERA	K/9	FPPG
SEASON	1.34	5.16	6.92	8.07		1.25	4.27	7.21	10.31
LAST 14 DAYS	1.29	6.97	8.91	5.37		1.10	3.98	9.40	12.03
BATTER SPLITS	Note: Batter Splits Below Open in Pop Up Window
	TBR vs R		TBR BvP			TOR vs R		TOR BvP

Pitcher Grind Down

• Jeremy Hellickson – Another big game for the Rays tonight. A loss could put them in a tie with the Rangers for that last Wild Card spot and as long as they keep winning, they are guaranteed a Wild Card spot. Of all the pitchers that the Rays could put on the mound tonight, Hellickson would probably be their last choice. Hellickson has had an ERA over 6 in the second half of the season. I typically like to take the pitchers in games that matter though and I’m going to take a chance on Hellickson tonight. Rating = 5

• R.A. Dickey – Dickey has pitched well against the Rays this season. In 5 starts, he has a 3.00 ERA with 30 K’s over 36 innings pitched. It’s nice to see him finally pitching well, but this game doesn’t mean anything to the Blue Jays. The Rays always seem to get it done in September and I think they get it done tonight against Dickey. Rating = 4

Batter Grind Down

TB – James Loney is having his best month of the season. In September, he is batting .435 with an OPS of 1.219. He is locked in and makes a nice play against Dickey. I also like Evan Longoria, he’s had two solid games in a row and a great history in important games.

TOR – Jose Bautista is really the only hitter on the Blue Jays that has a good history against Hellickson and obviously he won’t be playing tonight. I think this is a sneaky spot for Hellickson to pitch well, but you can never count on Jose Reyes.

Detroit vs. Miami

7:10 PM	Detroit – ROAD					Miami – HOME
TEAM BATTING	AVG	OPS	K%	FPAB		AVG	OPS	K%	FPAB
SEASON	0.282	0.785	16.90%	0.65		0.231	0.623	19.80%	0.43
VS. LEFT/RIGHT	0.293	0.796	16.20%	0.53		0.230	0.613	19.70%	0.31
SP STATS	Porcello – RHP					Koehler – RHP
	WHIP	ERA	K/9	FPPG		WHIP	ERA	K/9	FPPG
SEASON	1.29	4.38	7.18	9.34		1.36	4.45	5.84	6.22
LAST 14 DAYS	0.99	1.66	10.19	16.40		0.95	2.84	3.32	8.00
BATTER SPLITS	Note: Batter Splits Below Open in Pop Up Window
	DET vs R		DET BvP			MIA vs R		MIA BvP

Pitcher Grind Down

• Jose Alvarez gets the start tonight as Porcello was scratched from his start. It’s a bit disappointing because Porcello had really been pitching well and had an excellent matchup. I think Alvarez is a big step down and while he is a pretty decent strikeout pitcher, he gives up a lot of runs. With so many other options, I’m looking elsewhere. Rating = 4

• Tom Koehler – I don’t like taking pitchers that have an ERA almost as high as their K rate. That is the case for Koehler. He faces an extremely tough lineup in the Tigers and is allowing an OPS close to .800 against right hand hitters. Rating = 2

Batter Grind Down

DET – It’s safe to say Miguel Cabrera is in play every night. We all know how good this guy is. I also like both Austin Jackson and Prince Fielder as they are both very good against right hand pitching. Victor Martinez would also be in play but may end up getting the night off as this game will be played under NL rules with no DH.

MIA – Alvarez hasn’t been great this season so you may want to target both Giancarlo Stanton and Justin Ruggiano. Both are good against lefties and have a favorable matchup.

Pittsburgh vs. Cincinnati

7:10 PM	Pittsburgh – ROAD					Cincinnati – HOME
TEAM BATTING	AVG	OPS	K%	FPAB		AVG	OPS	K%	FPAB
SEASON	0.245	0.705	22.40%	0.55		0.249	0.718	20.10%	0.58
VS. LEFT/RIGHT	0.242	0.700	21.80%	0.42		0.254	0.730	19.80%	0.47
SP STATS	Burnett – RHP					Bailey – RHP
	WHIP	ERA	K/9	FPPG		WHIP	ERA	K/9	FPPG
SEASON	1.24	3.39	9.98	12.17		1.11	3.40	8.65	11.84
LAST 14 DAYS	1.20	4.05	12.15	15.33		1.31	3.55	4.43	8.60
BATTER SPLITS	Note: Batter Splits Below Open in Pop Up Window
	PIT vs R		PIT BvP			CIN vs R		CIN BvP

Pitcher Grind Down

• A.J. Burnett – Both of these teams will face each other in the Wild Card game here shortly, but they are both playing for home field advantage in that game so there is still something to play for. A.J. Burnett is one of my favorite pitchers when he is playing at home, but his 4.50 ERA on the road is a bit alarming. Especially when he has to go on the road and face the Reds in the Great American Ballpark. More risk here than reward. Rating = 5

• Homer Bailey – Bailey has really pitched well at home this season which is a bit surprising because last year he really struggled in his home starts. Bailey has an ERA just over 3.00 at home this season and has pitched well against the Pirates. Both of these pitchers are above average, but I think they are both below average plays. Seems like it could be one of those 6-5 games. Rating = 5

Batter Grind Down

PIT – The Pirates offense has a lot of new pieces and now that Starling Marte is back, it really bolsters that lineup. I like Andrew McCutchen and Justin Morneau against Bailey tonight in the hitter friendly park.

CIN – Burnett has really shut down right hand hitter this season with a batting average of .204 against him. Lefties on the other hand have had success against him. If you want to take any reds, the three players to target are Joey Votto, Shin-Soo Choo, and Jay Bruce.

Milwaukee vs. NY Mets

7:10 PM	Milwaukee – ROAD					NY Mets – HOME
TEAM BATTING	AVG	OPS	K%	FPAB		AVG	OPS	K%	FPAB
SEASON	0.254	0.714	19.70%	0.57		0.239	0.683	22.20%	0.54
VS. LEFT/RIGHT	0.250	0.702	18.90%	0.42		0.238	0.679	21.90%	0.41
SP STATS	Gallardo – RHP					Torres – RHP
	WHIP	ERA	K/9	FPPG		WHIP	ERA	K/9	FPPG
SEASON	1.37	4.23	7.13	9.14		1.14	3.36	7.64	4.19
LAST 14 DAYS	1.23	4.85	8.31	9.00		1.28	5.00	11.00	8.50
BATTER SPLITS	Note: Batter Splits Below Open in Pop Up Window
	MIL vs R		MIL BvP			NYM vs R		NYM BvP

Pitcher Grind Down

• Yovani Gallardo – Gallardo really struggled to start the season, but has turned it on since the All-Star break. In 10 starts since then he has a 3.10 ERA and a pretty good K rate. I think he makes a great play against this Mets team that really struggles to score at home. Not many people will roster him tonight either. Rating = 7

• Carlos Torres – Torres is the ultimate splits pitcher, luckily they are in his favor tonight. This season he has a 2.40 ERA at home with a WHIP under 1.000. I think Torres is in play in GPP’s, but Gallardo is the safer option for H2H and 50/50 leagues.

Batter Grind Down

MIL – I think this will be a low scoring game without much happening for either offense. You could go with Nori Aoki leading off, but for the most part I would look elsewhere for hitters.

NYM – Eric Young and Daniel Murphy both have the lefty/righty matchup, but neither one jumps out to me as a must play. I think having David Wright back helps that lineup, but one guy can only do so much. I’m big on Gallardo tonight.

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