MLB Daily Grind Down June 4th Part 2
Colorado at Cincinnati
| Colorado | Cincinnati | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Great American Ball Park | 7:10 PM | ||||||
| Juan Nicasio – (4-2), 4.79 ERA, 5.94 K/9, 1.408 WHIP | Homer Bailey – (3-4), 3.84 ERA, 9 K/9, 1.191 WHIP | ||||||
| PvB | (0-5 H/AB) 0 BA-A, 80 K%, 0 OPS-A | PvB | (16-50 H/AB) 0.32 BA-A, 18 K%, 0.8 OPS-A | ||||
| ROAD | (2-1), 4.94 ERA, 4 HRA, 4.6 K/9, 1.548 WHIP | HOME | (2-0), 2.32 ERA, 0 HRA, 11.3 K/9, 1.097 WHIP | ||||
| BATTER SPLITS BREAKDOWN | |||||||
COL BvP  | COL vs R | CIN BvP | CIN vs R | ||||
| Note: Batter Splits Above Open in Pop Up Window | |||||||
Las Vegas
- OU 8.5
- Favored CIN -166
Pitchers
- Home A lot of people were expecting a much higher scoring game than the 3-0 game last night, but both starting pitchers were on point. I think we see that higher scoring game tonight, at least from the Reds. Homer Bailey has been excellent at home this season posting a 2.32 ERA and a K rate of 11.3 per 9 innings. Should pick up a win. Target
- Away There’s something about Rockies pitchers that make me not trust them, even if they are not pitching at Coors Field. I’m just not sold on any of them. Juan Nicasio has been pretty average this season with an ERA of 4.94 on the road while only striking out 4.6 batters per 9 innings. This looks like a good spot for the Reds. Avoid
Batters
- Home Nicasio seems to be one of those reverse splits pitchers as he is holding lefties to a .218 batting average while righties are batting .289. However, that hasn’t been true throughout his career, so I still think the lefties of Votto, Choo and Bruce are in play.
- Away The Rockies just aren’t the same team offensively when they are on the road and Bailey has been very good at home. They have a ton of talent so they could always have a good night, but I just don’t think that night is tonight.
Pittsburgh at Atlanta
| Pittsburgh | Atlanta | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Turner Field | 7:10 PM | ||||||
| Jeff Locke – (5-1), 2.25 ERA, 5.91 K/9, 1.172 WHIP | Mike Minor – (7-2), 2.48 ERA, 8.23 K/9, 0.928 WHIP | ||||||
| PvB | (6-28 H/AB) 0.214 BA-A, 21.43 K%, 0.964 OPS-A | PvB | (10-36 H/AB) 0.278 BA-A, 22.22 K%, 0.889 OPS-A | ||||
| ROAD | (3-1), 1.45 ERA, 0 HRA, 6.7 K/9, 0.968 WHIP | HOME | (2-1), 2.43 ERA, 3 HRA, 8.1 K/9, 0.72 WHIP | ||||
| BATTER SPLITS BREAKDOWN | |||||||
| PIT BvP | PIT vs L | ATL BvP | ATL vs L | ||||
| Note: Batter Splits Above Open in Pop Up Window | |||||||
Las Vegas
- OU 7.0
- Favored ATL -160
Pitchers
- Home Mike Minor continues to dominate at home with a 2.43 ERA and a 0.740 WHIP. Talk about some solid numbers. The matchup for Minor is a good one too as he gets to face the Pirates who seem to hate scoring runs. Minor is one of my favorite dollar for dollar pitching options tonight. Target
- Away On Dan’s podcast, he said that Locke has pitched something like 19 straight innings without a run allowed. He is made it his lock of the day that the streak would come to an end tonight. I wholeheartedly agree with him. He’s going to come back down to earth sometime and I think it will be tonight against the Braves. Avoid
Batters
- Home The Upton brothers both have HR’s against Locke, wouldn’t it be cool to see someone win one of the qualifiers with both Upton’s on their team? I’m not necessarily recommending them both, but Justin has big upside and B.J. has good value. Evan Gattis is another guy to look at if he is in the lineup.
- Away The Pirates really struggle to find consistent production outside of Marte and McCutchen which makes their offense disappear when those two have bad games. This does not look like a great matchup for the Pirates.
Baltimore at Houston
| Baltimore | Houston | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Minute Maid Park | 8:10 PM | ||||||
| Chris Tillman – (4-2), 4.26 ERA, 7.42 K/9, 1.379 WHIP | Lucas Harrell – (4-6), 5.37 ERA, 4.98 K/9, 1.804 WHIP | ||||||
| PvB | (1-8 H/AB) 0.125 BA-A, 37.5 K%, 0.625 OPS-A | PvB | (1-2 H/AB) 0.5 BA-A, 0 K%, 1 OPS-A | ||||
| ROAD | (3-0), 2.59 ERA, 2 HRA, 8.1 K/9, 1.315 WHIP | HOME | (2-4), 7.15 ERA, 6 HRA, 5.3 K/9, 2.088 WHIP | ||||
| BATTER SPLITS BREAKDOWN | |||||||
| BAL BvP | BAL vs R | HOU BvP | HOU vs R | ||||
| Note: Batter Splits Above Open in Pop Up Window | |||||||
Las Vegas
- OU 9.0
- Favored BAL -160
Pitchers
- Home Lucas Harrell pitched very well at home last season, but this season is a different story. His ERA at home is over 7.0 and his WHIP is over 2.0. Two terrible stats working against him tonight. Throw in a bad matchup and this is a recipe for disaster. Avoid
- Away Chris Tillman is in a very similar situation to Joe Blanton last night. Same opponent in the Astros, and also has the same risky feeling to it. Tillman has been pretty good, but has given up 12 earned runs in his last 3 starts and these Astros have random offensive spurts. I think I am going to stay away, but he does have good upside. In Play
Batters
- Home Believe it or not, I think this is a pretty good spot for the Astros tonight. I’m not a fan of taking the high strikeout players (Pena, Carter, etc.), but Jason Castro has been swinging the bat well and Jose Altuve is a legit .300 hitter.
- Away Get your BAL stacks ready for tonight. It’s looking like there could be some fireworks in this one. Harrell has been awful this season and all Orioles are in play. I’m calling a HR from Chris Davis, a multi-hit game from Manny Machado, a steal and multi runs from McLouth, and a multi-RBI game from Adam Jones. Yep I called it.
Minnesota at Kansas City
| Minnesota | Kansas City | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kauffman Stadium | 8:10 PM | ||||||
| Samuel Deduno – (1-1), 5.11 ERA, 2.98 K/9, 1.488 WHIP | Luis Mendoza – (1-2), 4.63 ERA, 6.43 K/9, 1.494 WHIP | ||||||
| PvB | (6-24 H/AB) 0.25 BA-A, 16.67 K%, 0.625 OPS-A | PvB | (22-81 H/AB) 0.272 BA-A, 19.75 K%, 0.716 OPS-A | ||||
| ROAD | NO DATA | HOME | (0-1), 8.59 ERA, 3 HRA, 4.3 K/9, 1.977 WHIP | ||||
| BATTER SPLITS BREAKDOWN | |||||||
| MIN BvP | MIN vs R | KCR BvP | KCR vs R | ||||
| Note: Batter Splits Above Open in Pop Up Window | |||||||
Las Vegas
- OU 8.5
- Favored KC -130
Pitchers
- Home Luis Mendoza can not and should not be trusted. Sure he hasn’t been terribly bad this season, but he certainly hasn’t been good. His blowup timer is about up and we will see it go off here in the next couple games. Avoid
- Away If I had to pick a pitcher in this one, it would be Samuel Deduno, but luckily I have a lot more options than that. Deduno is a low strikeout pitcher that struggles on the road. No thank you. Avoid
Batters
- Home I’m not in love with the Royals offense, but they do have an above average matchup against Deduno. Eric Hosmer should provide some solid value and gets the lefty/righty splits in his favor. Billy Butler is always a threat for a big game and could be a good play if the price is right.
- Away Brian Dozier has been one of my favorite plays lately and he has come up big for me. He is riding a nice little hitting streak and is dirt cheap on quite a few sites. Joe Mauer should go 3/3 against Mendoza and I really think he will. Also, Justin Morneau and Chris Parmelee have had success against Mendoza so don’t forget about them either.
Oakland at Milwaukee
| Oakland | Milwaukee | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Miller Park | 8:10 PM | ||||||
| A.J. Griffin – (5-4), 4.04 ERA, 7.3 K/9, 1.188 WHIP | Kyle Lohse – (1-6), 4.37 ERA, 5.63 K/9, 1.334 WHIP | ||||||
| PvB | (0-0 H/AB) 0 BA-A, 0 K%, 0 OPS-A | PvB | (18-77 H/AB) 0.234 BA-A, 14.29 K%, 0.61 OPS-A | ||||
| ROAD | (3-3), 4.62 ERA, 7 HRA, 6.1 K/9, 1.135 WHIP | HOME | (0-2), 4.44 ERA, 3 HRA, 7.4 K/9, 1.438 WHIP | ||||
| BATTER SPLITS BREAKDOWN | |||||||
| OAK BvP | OAK vs R | MIL BvP | MIL vs R | ||||
| Note: Batter Splits Above Open in Pop Up Window | |||||||
Las Vegas
- OU 9.0
- Favored OAK -107
Pitchers
- Home Kyle Lohse has not been that solid low ERA, low WHIP pitcher that he has been over the last couple of years. He has been bad and has given up at least 4 earned runs in 4 of his last 5 starts. The A’s are clicking offensively so it’s not a great spot for Lohse. Avoid
- Away A.J. Griffin has been a solid pitcher for the A’s this season, but Vegas thinks this is going to be a shootout and I do too. The Brewers are a solid team at home. Avoid
Batters
- Home I’m still taking the advice of Al Smizzle and staying away from Ryan Braun. Thumb injuries make it tough to hit and Braun has been very quiet lately. But I do like the lefty bats of Jean Segura and Norichika Aoki. I think both of them get on base and score some runs. Rickie Weeks is a good value option at 2nd, he is coming off of a nice game last night.
- Away Oakland is really hitting the ball well right now. Since they are facing a RHP, Jaso, Reddick, and Moss will all be in the lineup. I also think Jed Lowrie will continue his hot play.
