MLB Daily Grind Down May 1st
The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down article will give you an in-depth analysis into the MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit.
While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries. The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.
What a crazy night of baseball last night. It seems like everytime I refreshed the scores, there was at least one or two more HR’s. Congrats to all of the Grinders that did well in the big tournaments. Today we have a full schedule including some day games, so we will break down those first and then get to the night games.
NY Mets at Miami
| NY Mets | Miami | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marlins Park | 12:40 PM | ||||||
| Dillon Gee – (1-4), 5.96 ERA, 6.43 K/9, 1.52 WHIP | Wade LeBlanc – (0-4), 6.2 ERA, 6.69 K/9, 1.78 WHIP | ||||||
| PvB | (7-32 H/AB) 0.219 BA-A, 0.16 K%, 0.688 OPS-A | PvB | (16-43 H/AB) 0.372 BA-A, 0.16 K%, 1 OPS-A | ||||
| ROAD | (0-2), 14.09 ERA, 4 HRA, 4.7 K/9, 2.478 WHIP | HOME | (0-3), 7.47 ERA, 3 HRA, 6.3 K/9, 1.723 WHIP | ||||
| BATTER SPLITS BREAKDOWN | |||||||
NYM BvP  | NYM vs L | MIA BvP | MIA vs R | ||||
| Note: Batter Splits Above Open in Pop Up Window | |||||||
Las Vegas
- OU 8.0
- Favored NYM -118
Pitchers
- Home Wade LeBlanc has been very average this season, or even below average. Even though he has a pretty good matchup against the Mets and even though he is very cheap, I just can’t bring myself to take him. He hasn’t looked very good and isn’t a big strikeout pitcher. He also may not get any run support from that awful lineup. Avoid LeBlanc today.
- Away Dillon Gee has been pretty solid in his 3 starts at home, but has looked awful on the road and has only made it through 7 innings in his two road starts. However, today he gets the AAA Marlins team so I think you can throw out those numbers and safely play Gee today. If Hefner can almost pitch a complete game against the Marlins, I think Gee should be just fine.
Batters
- Home I think there a few hitters in play today even though this Marlins lineup is terrible. Gee has been bad on the road and could give up a few runs today. I like the value for both Justin Ruggiano and Juan Pierre.
- Away LeBlanc hasn’t looked very good this year and there are a few Mets that really hit lefties well. David Wright, John Buck, and Ruben Tejada all seem to have a solid matchup.
Minnesota at Detroit
| Minnesota | Detroit | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comerica Park | 1:05 PM | ||||||
| Scott Diamond – (1-2), 4.32 ERA, 5.56 K/9, 1.56 WHIP | Anibal Sanchez – (3-1), 1.34 ERA, 11.11 K/9, 1.04 WHIP | ||||||
| PvB | (18-85 H/AB) 0.212 BA-A, 0.19 K%, 0.565 OPS-A | PvB | (18-67 H/AB) 0.269 BA-A, 0.25 K%, 0.731 OPS-A | ||||
| ROAD | (1-0), 1.5 ERA, 0 HRA, 7.5 K/9, 1 WHIP | HOME | (2-0), 1.2 ERA, 0 HRA, 15 K/9, 0.8 WHIP | ||||
| BATTER SPLITS BREAKDOWN | |||||||
| MIN BvP | MIN vs R | DET BvP | DET vs L | ||||
| Note: Batter Splits Above Open in Pop Up Window | |||||||
Las Vegas
- OU 8.5
- Favored DET -210
Pitchers
- Home Anibal Sanchez is coming off of a career high 17 K’s in his last start. He has been of fire to start the year and is a huge favorite today against the Twins. I expect this game to be similar to the other games in this series. A lot of strikeouts for the Tigers pitcher, a run or two given up, but a win to go with the strikeout. Target
- Away I’m typically not a fan of taking pitchers against the Tigers, especially when it is in Detroit. And especially if that pitcher is Scott Diamond. Nothing to like about this matchup. Avoid
Batters
- Home Miguel Cabrera is 7/14 with 2 doubles against Diamond. He is the only one with good BvP numbers, but I think Victor Martinez and Jhonny Peralta are both in play as well. I would stay away fro the lefty/lefty matchup for Fielder though.
- Away The Twins hitters have done OK against Sanchez in the past, but Sanchez is locked in right now and I don’t see the Twins doing much damage. Avoid them and move on.
Pittsburgh at Milwaukee
| Pittsburgh | Milwaukee | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Miller Park | 1:10 PM | ||||||
| Jeanmar Gomez – | Hiram Burgos – (1-0), 3.27 ERA, 3.27 K/9, 1 WHIP | ||||||
| PvB | (2-6 H/AB) 0.333 BA-A, 0.17 K%, 1.333 OPS-A | PvB | (0-0 H/AB) 0 BA-A, 0 K%, 0 OPS-A | ||||
| ROAD | (1-0), 4 ERA, 1 HRA, 3 K/9, 1.333 WHIP | HOME | (1-0), 1.8 ERA, 0 HRA, 1.8 K/9, 1 WHIP | ||||
| BATTER SPLITS BREAKDOWN | |||||||
| PIT BvP | PIT vs R | MIL BvP | MIL vs R | ||||
| Note: Batter Splits Above Open in Pop Up Window | |||||||
Las Vegas
- OU 9.0
- Favored MIL -138
Pitchers
- Home Hiram Burgos has pitched pretty decent in his first two starts. He has only given up 9 hits in 11 innings of work. Usually, I would consider the Pirates a solid matchup, but the Pirates seem to be clicking right now and I don’t think a rookie is going to be able to quiet them down. Too risky for me.
- Away Jeanmar Gomez is coming out of the bullpen to make his first start of the season and all you need to do is look at who is favored and the over/under for this game to realize that you should not take him. Avoid
Batters
- Home Plenty of hitters are in play in this game. Ryan Braun is always my favorite Brewers pick when they are at home, but the whole team has been hitting well lately. Logan Schafer is a great sleeper pick today as he is batting leadoff and I think both Rickie Weeks and Jonathan Lucroy make solid plays as well.
- Away Like I said, the Pirates offense has been rolling and Burgos has just been decent. I love the matchup for Garrett Jones today. He is batting .311 against RHP this season and should see plenty of RBI opportunities since he is batting clean up.
Cincinnati at St. Louis
| Cincinnati | St. Louis | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Busch Stadium | 1:45 PM | ||||||
| Homer Bailey – (1-2), 2.81 ERA, 9 K/9, 1.06 WHIP | Lance Lynn – (4-0), 3.1 ERA, 10.55 K/9, 1.14 WHIP | ||||||
| PvB | (50-152 H/AB) 0.329 BA-A, 0.14 K%, 1 OPS-A | PvB | (10-31 H/AB) 0.323 BA-A, 0.39 K%, 0.839 OPS-A | ||||
| ROAD | (0-2), 6 ERA, 3 HRA, 6 K/9, 1.417 WHIP | HOME | (2-0), 1.38 ERA, 0 HRA, 13.2 K/9, 0.769 WHIP | ||||
| BATTER SPLITS BREAKDOWN | |||||||
| CIN BvP | CIN vs R | STL BvP | STL vs R | ||||
| Note: Batter Splits Above Open in Pop Up Window | |||||||
Las Vegas
- OU 7.0
- Favored STL -113
Pitchers
- Home Jaime Garcia came up big for me last night and I’m expecting Lance Lynn to do the same for me tonight. The Reds bats have been in a bit of a slump lately and Lynn is really pitching well. Also, look at the bottom of the Reds order: Lutz, Miller, and Bailey batting 7th, 8th, and 9th should mean a couple extra K’s for Lynn.
- Away Homer Bailey has really only had one bad start on the season, but the bad news was that it was against the Cardinals. They tagged him for 7 earned runs over 5 innings. I’m not a huge believer in the past predicting the future, but I would rather take Lynn today.
Batters
- Home The Cardinals found success against Bailey earlier in the season and could do the same today. The play here is Matt Holliday, he seems to have Bailey’s number and is 12/27 with 6 XBH’s against him. He is also coming off of a HR last night.
- Away I think Lynn makes quick work of this Reds lineup today, but you have to love the price for Joey Votto on a few of the sites. He is probably the only Reds player I would consider taking and only if he is cheaper than usual.
LA Angels at Oakland
| LA Angels | Oakland | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| O.co Coliseum | 3:37 PM | ||||||
| C.J. Wilson – (2-0), 4.3 ERA, 8.35 K/9, 1.53 WHIP | Tommy Milone – (3-2), 3.38 ERA, 7.31 K/9, 1.22 WHIP | ||||||
| PvB | (23-132 H/AB) 0.174 BA-A, 0.24 K%, 0.576 OPS-A | PvB | (27-78 H/AB) 0.346 BA-A, 0.15 K%, 0.872 OPS-A | ||||
| ROAD | (1-0), 4.76 ERA, 1 HRA, 10.3 K/9, 1.588 WHIP | HOME | (2-1), 1.77 ERA, 2 HRA, 6.6 K/9, 0.984 WHIP | ||||
| BATTER SPLITS BREAKDOWN | |||||||
| LAA BvP | LAA vs L | OAK BvP | OAK vs L | ||||
| Note: Batter Splits Above Open in Pop Up Window | |||||||
Las Vegas
- OU 8.5
- Favored OAK -118
Pitchers
- Home Tommy Milone gets the start today for the A’s and while he is typically pretty good at home, he has really struggled against this A’s lineup in the past. Pujols, Hamilton, and Aybar all have good BvP and then he still has to deal with Trout and Trumbo. I’m staying away from Milone.
- Away C.J. Wilson is always so frustrating for me. He will either start the game off really well and then give up a few runs, or give up a few runs to start the game and then get it together and pitch well. He just can’t seem to have that solid game all the way through. I don’t love the matchup against this A’s offense who seems to be coming alive right now either.
Batters
- Home I think the A’s knock Wilson around a bit today. They have Yoenis Cespedes back who hits lefties well and Josh Donaldson has been red hot lately. Both of them are in play and I would also consider taking Jed Lowrie, he got the night off and should be ready to go today.
- Away Albert Pujols, Josh Hamilton, and Erick Aybar all have good BvP against Milone, but I would much rather take Mike Trout who seems to be heating up.