MLB Daily Grind Down May 29th

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2013-05-30 10:28:34

The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down article will give you an in-depth analysis into the MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit.

While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries. The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time. (any fp listed uses Fanduel’s scoring system)

We have a very busy schedule tonight full of Interleague games. People tend not to like the Interleague matchups very well and as far as fantasy baseball is concernced, I agree. Many of the pitchers have never faced the hitters from these teams and vice versa, it makes it a little tough to gauge what to expect. It just makes us have to dive a little deeper into the numbers. Here is the Grind Down for tonight’s games:

Cincinnati at Cleveland

BATTER SPLITS BREAKDOWN
CIN BvP		CIN vs R		CLE BvP		CLE vs R
Note: Batter Splits Above Open in Pop Up Window

Las Vegas

• OU 8.5

• Favored CLE -133

Pitchers

• Home Justin Masterson has been very good at home this season. He has posted a 2.47 ERA, a 1.053 WHIP, and has a K rate of 9 per 9 innings. Only problem that I see him having today is against the left hand bats of the Reds. Last season Masterson allowed lefties to hit for almost a .300 average against him. Masterson’s value tonight really just depends on his salary, if he is in the middle salary range, he is a good pick. If he is one of the more expensive pitchers, I would pass. In Play

• Away Bronson Arroyo has posted some nice numbers so far this season, but draws a tough matchup against the Indians. Arroyo’s K rate on the road this season has really been low and the Indians are a team that can get hot quickly. Avoid

Batters

• Home Asdrubal Cabrera has been very up and down lately and after his 0-4 with 3 K’s performance last night, I think he bounces back against Arroyo whom he already has 2 HR’s against. I also like the left hand bats of Jason Kipnis and Michael Bourn at the top of the order.

• Away Like I said above, Masterson has given up a good average to lefties throughout his career so if you are going to target any Reds, make it one of these three: Shin-Soo Choo, Joey Votto, or Jay Bruce.

Detroit at Pittsburgh

BATTER SPLITS BREAKDOWN
DET BvP		DET vs R		PIT BvP		PIT vs R
Note: Batter Splits Above Open in Pop Up Window

Las Vegas

• OU 7.0

• Favored Pick ‘Em

Pitchers

• Home If Jeanmar Gomez can blank the Tigers, then A.J. Burnett should really have a solid game against them right? The logic is there, but the Tigers offense doesn’t stay quiet very long. Burnett has some great numbers at home and I love his K rate of 11 batters per 9 innings, but it’s hard to see the Tigers bats not showing up two nights in a row. In Play

• Away Here is another situation where Rick Porcello had a monster game last night and now the ace gets to face that same team tonight. Logic would be that Anibal Sanchez should have a really solid game, but Sanchez hasn’t been quite as good on the road as he has been at home. This game could also go either way so you certainly aren’t guaranteed a win. But his high K rate makes him in play also. In Play

Batters

• Very low over/under combined with two pitchers that are averaging more than 10 K’s per 9 innings. Seems like this should be more of a pitcher’s duel than a hitters one. I think there are better options today in the more high scoring games.

Boston at Philadelphia

BATTER SPLITS BREAKDOWN
BOS BvP		BOS vs R		PHI BvP		PHI vs R
Note: Batter Splits Above Open in Pop Up Window

Las Vegas

• OU 8.5

• Favored BOS -108

Pitchers

• Home If you throw out his last two starts, Kyle Kendrick has really had a solid year. The problem is that his last two start haven’t been great and his numbers at home have been much worse than those on the road. Kendrick isn’t going to get you a ton of K’s which makes his value go down a bit. I think the best route is to steer clear. Avoid

• Away Looking at his numbers this season, I am convinced that John Lackey had some kind of Space Jam incident happen to him where the aliens tried to steal his good pitching and instead just stole all of his crappy pitching because that’s all he had. These numbers just don’t make sense for a guy that has had an average ERA of around 5.00 over the last two season. The matchup is a decent one against the Phillies, but personally I’m just not sold on Lackey. In Play

Batters

• Home Domonic Brown is really the only Phillies hitter that you need to be worried about these days. The guy is crushing it right now and while he isn’t getting a ton of hits, he is making them count with doubles and HR’s when he does get them.

• Away Kendrick doesn’t have an extensive history against the Sox, but I think we can safely say that there are a couple of good plays on the Red Sox. Jacoby Ellsbury is starting to heat up and gets the lefty/righty splits in his favor. I also like Dustin Pedroia, he seems to score positive fantasy points every night.

Washington at Baltimore

BATTER SPLITS BREAKDOWN
WSN BvP		WSN vs R		BAL BvP		BAL vs R
Note: Batter Splits Above Open in Pop Up Window

Las Vegas

• OU 8.0

• Favored BAL -112

Pitchers

• Home Chris Tillman just keeps on trucking along. While his numbers aren’t those of an ace, he has a tough matchup almost every night and he has still managed to pitch well. I really like the matchup today against the Nationals who haven’t been very good offensively lately. The only problem is that Zimmerman is the opposing pitcher. Target

• Away I guess if you had to find a fault in Jordan Zimmerman it would be that he doesn’t have a very high K rate, but it seems like that has been helping him pitch deeper into games. He is getting outs quickly which is always good for a pitcher. I think he is a bit overpriced tonight though, the Orioles are a tough team. In Play

Batters

• Home With these two pitchers going, the over/under seems a bit high. I could try to get fancy and recommend some of the Orioles bats, but I just don’t like the matchup so why steer you in the wrong direction.

• Away Denard Span and Adam LaRoche are both in play today, but as a whole, I think the Nats struggle against Tillman and this ends up being a low scoring game. So take that as you want.

NY Mets at NY Yankees

BATTER SPLITS BREAKDOWN
NYM BvP		NYM vs R		NYY BvP		NYY vs R
Note: Batter Splits Above Open in Pop Up Window

Las Vegas

• OU 8.5

• Favored NYY -172

Pitchers

• Home David Phelps has to be my favorite value pitcher of the day. Not only has he been pitching well lately, but he has been a beast at home averaging 11 K’s per 9 innings while keeping his WHIP and ERA fairly low. The matchup against the Mets is a great one and he is a big favorite. TARGET

• Away Outside of Matt Harvey, you can usually take hitters against any of the other Mets’ pitchers. Jeremy Hefner is no different. His ERA of 6.55 on the road isn’t pretty and all of those left hand bats of the Yankees will be salivating at the chance to face him. Avoid

Batters

• Home Love the Yankees bats today. I am not going to point out any of them in particular besides Robinson Cano because I think the team should score quite a few runs. But back to Cano, he eats up weak right hand pitchers and should have a field day against Hefner.

• Away If you want to think outside of the box, then sure take some Mets hitters today. But if you want to win some money, then why risk taking hitters from a team that can’t hit?

Grind Down: Page 1 – Page 2