MLB Daily Grind Down May 8th
The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down article will give you an in-depth analysis into the MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit.
While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries. The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.
Wednesdays are always a good time because we get the best of both worlds, we get a few day games to keep us entertained all day and then we also get 10 night games to get some action on. The only problem with these days is that I usually end up playing a lot more than I should. There are a few weather issues to look out for tonight, so we will cover those in the Grind Down.
Atlanta at Cincinnati
| Atlanta | Cincinnati | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Great American Ball Park | 12:35 PM | ||||||
| Mike Minor – (3-2), 3.26 ERA, 7.3 K/9, 0.88 WHIP | Mike Leake – (2-1), 4.15 ERA, 5.79 K/9, 1.53 WHIP | ||||||
| PvB | (4-24 H/AB) 0.167 BA-A, 16.67 K%, 0.583 OPS-A | PvB | (22-89 H/AB) 0.247 BA-A, 16.85 K%, 0.753 OPS-A | ||||
| ROAD | (2-1), 4.42 ERA, 2 HRA, 7.4 K/9, 1.145 WHIP | HOME | (1-0), 2.7 ERA, 3 HRA, 7.2 K/9, 1.15 WHIP | ||||
| BATTER SPLITS BREAKDOWN | |||||||
ATL BvP  | ATL vs R | CIN BvP | CIN vs L | ||||
| Note: Batter Splits Above Open in Pop Up Window | |||||||
Las Vegas
- OU 8.0
- Favored CIN -113
Pitchers
- Home Mike Leake has been the tale of two pitchers this season. At home, he has looked pretty sharp and has a solid WHIP of 1.150, but on the road his WHIP doubles. Luckily for him, today’s game is at home. In his last 3 starts against the Braves, Leake is 2-0 with an impressive 1.35 ERA. The Braves don’t have either Upton brother or McCann in the lineup today so he could be a solid sleeper.
- Away Mike Minor has given up 12 earned runs in his last 3 starts, but hasn’t allowed many hits and is sporting a solid 0.890 WHIP this season. He draws a tough matchup today against the Reds in Cincy though. I think he pitches well, but ends up giving up a few runs as the Reds have hit lefties well this season.
Batters
- Home I don’t typically like to take lefty/lefty matchups for hitters so I am going to rule out Votto, Bruce, and Choo, but I think both Brandon Phillips and Todd Frazier have the splits in their favor today.
- Away The Braves do not have the Upton brothers or McCann in the lineup today, so that moves both Evan Gattis and Dan Uggla up a spot in the order. I think they are both decent plays today.
Seattle at Pittsburgh
| Seattle | Pittsburgh | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PNC Park | 12:35 PM | ||||||
| Felix Hernandez – (4-2), 1.6 ERA, 9.14 K/9, 0.91 WHIP | A.J. Burnett – (3-2), 2.57 ERA, 12.21 K/9, 1.12 WHIP | ||||||
| PvB | (11-57 H/AB) 0.193 BA-A, 29.82 K%, 0.456 OPS-A | PvB | (30-94 H/AB) 0.319 BA-A, 24.47 K%, 0.915 OPS-A | ||||
| ROAD | (3-1), 1.29 ERA, 1 HRA, 8.7 K/9, 0.821 WHIP | HOME | (2-1), 2.45 ERA, 2 HRA, 12.3 K/9, 0.896 WHIP | ||||
| BATTER SPLITS BREAKDOWN | |||||||
| SEA BvP | SEA vs R | PIT BvP | PIT vs R | ||||
| Note: Batter Splits Above Open in Pop Up Window | |||||||
Las Vegas
- OU 6.5
- Favored PIT -101
Pitchers
- Home I love the over/under in this game which could mean good things for both pitchers. A.J. Burnett gets the start for the Pirates and is a great play today. He has been a stud this season and has been almost unhittable at home. He is also a high strikeout pitcher with 57 K’s in only 42 innings of work. Target
- Away Felix Hernandez also makes a solid play today, but if you have to decide between the two, I would give a slight edge to Burnett, just because the Pirates bats have been hitting well lately. But this could be one of those 1-0 games so either pitcher could get the win. King Felix is certainly in play.
Batters
- I am going to go out on a limb here and say that the hitters in this game do not have favorable matchups. Crazy prediction right? Avoid
St. Louis at Chicago Cubs
| St. Louis | Chicago Cubs | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wrigley Field | 2:20 PM | ||||||
| Jake Westbrook – (2-1), 1.07 ERA, 4.88 K/9, 1.4 WHIP | Carlos Villanueva – (1-2), 2.85 ERA, 7.24 K/9, 0.93 WHIP | ||||||
| PvB | (31-139 H/AB) 0.223 BA-A, 10.07 K%, 0.568 OPS-A | PvB | (12-50 H/AB) 0.24 BA-A, 20 K%, 0.68 OPS-A | ||||
| ROAD | (1-1), 1.93 ERA, 0 HRA, 4.3 K/9, 1.714 WHIP | HOME | (1-1), 2.7 ERA, 2 HRA, 5.9 K/9, 0.9 WHIP | ||||
| BATTER SPLITS BREAKDOWN | |||||||
| STL BvP | STL vs R | CHC BvP | CHC vs R | ||||
| Note: Batter Splits Above Open in Pop Up Window | |||||||
Las Vegas
- OU 7.5
- Favored STL -105
Pitchers
- Home I was wrong about Travis Wood coming back down to earth last night, he pitched a great game against the Cardinals. Now the question is whether Carlos Villanueva can do the same. He has also been pitching better than expected this season and has been very good at home. I’m still not quite a believer, but he is affordable so if you like him, don’t be afraid to take him.
- Away One pitcher that I am really not sold on is Jake Westbrook. I think he has had some incredibly lucky breaks this season. I’m not saying that I don’t think he is a good pitcher, I just don’t think that 1.07 ERA is indicative of his pitching. He has a 1.760 WHIP on the road this season and sooner or later that is going to catch up to him. Good matchup against the Cubs, but I’m not drinking the Kool-Aid.
Batters
- Home Like I said, I’m not a huge believer in Westbrook and I think the Cubbies score a few runs on him today even though their hottest bat with Soriano isn’t in the lineup. I like both Starlin Castro and Anthony Rizzo who have hit RHP very well this season.
- Away Allen Craig has been red hot lately and I think he makes a solid play today even against a tough Villanueva. Jon Jay is also in play as a sleeper pick, he has 8 hits in his last 4 games and is batting 6th today.
Miami at San Diego
| Miami | San Diego | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Petco Park | 3:40 PM | ||||||
| Ricky Nolasco – (2-3), 4.14 ERA, 5.47 K/9, 1.23 WHIP | Jason Marquis – (3-2), 4.25 ERA, 5.75 K/9, 1.36 WHIP | ||||||
| PvB | (28-74 H/AB) 0.378 BA-A, 20.27 K%, 1.081 OPS-A | PvB | (36-133 H/AB) 0.271 BA-A, 10.53 K%, 0.805 OPS-A | ||||
| ROAD | (1-2), 4.43 ERA, 5 HRA, 6.4 K/9, 1.343 WHIP | HOME | (2-1), 5.64 ERA, 4 HRA, 6.9 K/9, 1.701 WHIP | ||||
| BATTER SPLITS BREAKDOWN | |||||||
| MIA BvP | MIA vs R | SDP BvP | SDP vs R | ||||
| Note: Batter Splits Above Open in Pop Up Window | |||||||
Las Vegas
- OU 7.0
- Favored SD -150
Pitchers
- Home This series has gone exactly how you would have thought. Both Andrew Cashner and Eric Stults had excellent starts against this weak offense and I expect the same out of Jason Marquis today even though he hasn’t pitched well at home this season. The Vegas line tells you everything you need to know. Target
- Away The Padres offense is actually producing a good amount of runs and anytime Ricky Nolasco takes the mound, I prefer to just turn my head and look at other options. I think he could pitch well, but even if he only allows one or two runs, he could get 0 run support. Avoid
Batters
- Home The Padres offense is like Young Frankenstein, “IT’S ALIVE!” They have scored at least 5 runs in 4 of their last 5 games and could possibly get there again today against Nolasco. Yonder Alonso is 3/5 with a HR off of Nolasco, Guzman is 2/2 with a double, and Headley is 4/12 with a HR and a double. I wouldn’t mind taking a hot Everth Cabrera either.
- Away Marcell Ozuna is probably the only bat that I would take a chance on for the Marlins today. The kid just keeps on hitting and is batting over .400 on the season.
Philadelphia at San Francisco
| Philadelphia | San Francisco | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AT&T Park | 3:45 PM | ||||||
| Jonathan Pettibone – (2-0), 3.24 ERA, 7.22 K/9, 1.2 WHIP | Barry Zito – (3-1), 3.06 ERA, 6.17 K/9, 1.45 WHIP | ||||||
| PvB | (0-0 H/AB) 0 BA-A, 0 K%, 0 OPS-A | PvB | (42-158 H/AB) 0.266 BA-A, 16.46 K%, 0.766 OPS-A | ||||
| ROAD | (1-0), 5.4 ERA, 0 HRA, 7.2 K/9, 1.8 WHIP | HOME | (3-0), 0.35 ERA, 0 HRA, 4.5 K/9, 1.154 WHIP | ||||
| BATTER SPLITS BREAKDOWN | |||||||
| PHI BvP | PHI vs L | SFG BvP | SFG vs R | ||||
| Note: Batter Splits Above Open in Pop Up Window | |||||||
Las Vegas
- OU 7.5
- Favored SF -153
Pitchers
- Home The Giants starting rotation has been getting rocked by this Phillies team and the Giants could complete the series sweep today. Barry Zito takes the mound for the Giants and is in play only because he is pitching at home. He has been awful on the road. I don’t love him in this matchup, I think Marquis offers better value, but he is a favorite.
- Away Jonathan Pettibone has looked pretty good in his first 3 starts, but then again he has only faced the Pirates, Mets, and Marlins and his one road start was his worst start of the 3. I think he is in trouble today against a Giants team that hits well at home.
Batters
- Home UPDATE – POSEY IS NOT IN THE LINEUP TODAY. I also like Hunter Pence and Marco Scutaro in this one.
- Away The Phillies have a lot of left hand bats which helps Zito’s value a little bit, but Utley is a solid hitter against both RHP’s and LHP’s. Hard to say where the Phillies runs are going to come from, but I do think they score a few.