MLB Daily Grind Down: Monday, September 16th

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2013-09-16 16:26:41

The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down article will give you an in-depth analysis into the MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: Any Fantasy Point Average Listed Uses FanDuel Scoring. For more info on FanDuel’s MLB Scoring System, check out the scoring systems section of our FanDuel Review

• FPAB – Fantasy Points Per At Bat
• K% – Strikeout Percentage
• K/9 – Strikeouts Per 9 IP

San Diego vs. Pittsburgh

7:05 PM	San Diego – ROAD					Pittsburgh – HOME
TEAM BATTING	AVG	OPS	K%	FPAB		AVG	OPS	K%	FPAB
SEASON	0.247	0.693	20.90%	0.54		0.245	0.705	22.40%	0.55
VS. LEFT/RIGHT	0.242	0.671	20.90%	0.38		0.242	0.700	21.80%	0.42
SP STATS	Cashner – RHP					Burnett – RHP
	WHIP	ERA	K/9	FPPG		WHIP	ERA	K/9	FPPG
SEASON	1.21	3.40	6.45	8.59		1.24	3.45	9.74	11.82
LAST 14 DAYS	0.69	2.35	8.75	16.20		1.65	9.64	10.88	7.05
BATTER SPLITS	Note: Batter Splits Below Open in Pop Up Window
	SDP vs R		SDP BvP			PIT vs R		PIT BvP

Pitcher Grind Down

• Andrew Cashner – Cashner has really pitched well over his last 5 starts. He has pitched at least 7 innings in each start during that stretch and hasn’t given up more than 2 earned in any start. He draws a tough matchup today against the Pirates though who are currently tied with the Cardinals in the NL Central. Cashner is an underdog and will have trouble picking up a win. Starter Rating = 5

• A.J. Burnett – Burnett has pitched very well at home this season. He has a 2.32 ERA with a 1.050 WHIP over 12 home starts. Burnett faces a Padres team that is only batting .242 against right hand pitching on the season. Burnett is always a favorite pitcher play thanks to his 9.74 K’s per 9 innings. He makes a great play today. Starter Rating = 9

Batter Grind Down

SD – Burnett’s biggest weakness is when he faces left hand bats. He is giving up a .275 batting average to lefties so if you want to get creative you could go with a guy like Will Venable today who hits righties well and is leading off.

PIT – The way Andrew McCutchen is playing makes him in play every day. In September Cutch has a .422 BAA / 1.216 OPS. That’s a hot bat if I’ve ever seen one. I also like new Pirate Justin Morneau, he gets a lefty righty matchup and should have runners in scoring position.

Atlanta vs. Washington

7:05 PM	Atlanta – ROAD					Washington – HOME
TEAM BATTING	AVG	OPS	K%	FPAB		AVG	OPS	K%	FPAB
SEASON	0.252	0.731	22.40%	0.59		0.247	0.700	20.20%	0.54
VS. LEFT/RIGHT	0.252	0.735	22.60%	0.48		0.234	0.669	20.50%	0.40
SP STATS	Minor – LHP					Haren – RHP
	WHIP	ERA	K/9	FPPG		WHIP	ERA	K/9	FPPG
SEASON	1.08	3.15	8.07	11.66		1.27	5.02	8.21	8.54
LAST 14 DAYS	1.23	4.15	9.00	10.00		1.11	5.00	13.00	10.50
BATTER SPLITS	Note: Batter Splits Below Open in Pop Up Window
	ATL vs R		ATL BvP			WSN vs L		WSN BvP

Pitcher Grind Down

• Mike Minor – Minor has been good on the road this season, but he has struggled with the Nationals. In two starts he has only managed to pitch a combined 7 innings. He is catching the Nats bats at a wrong time too, as a team they have a .293 BAA / .860 OPS in September. Starter Rating = 6

• Dan Haren – Of these two pitchers, I would be tempted to take Haren over Minor. Not only is he quite a bit cheaper, but Haren has had success against these Braves this season. If he can manage to not give up any HR’s, he should rack up a decent number of strikeouts and hopefully get some run support. Starter Rating = 6

Batter Grind Down

ATL – Haren has had some reverse splits this year, he is actually giving up a higher batting average and higher OPS to right hand hitters. Due to his nature of giving up HR’s, you have to think Justin Upton and Evan Gattis are in play.

WAS – Wilson Ramos is a great option at catcher tonight. He already has 15 HR’s on the season and he has only played in 68 games. He has 3 HR’s in his last 4 games and is a nice option today. Jayson Werth and Ryan Zimmerman are also in play as they hit lefties well.

Seattle vs. Detroit

7:05 PM	Seattle – ROAD					Detroit – HOME
TEAM BATTING	AVG	OPS	K%	FPAB		AVG	OPS	K%	FPAB
SEASON	0.243	0.706	21.70%	0.54		0.282	0.785	16.90%	0.65
VS. LEFT/RIGHT	0.246	0.723	21.40%	0.47		0.268	0.763	18.50%	0.50
SP STATS	Saunders – LHP					Porcello – RHP
	WHIP	ERA	K/9	FPPG		WHIP	ERA	K/9	FPPG
SEASON	1.63	5.18	5.03	7.04		1.31	4.56	6.67	8.86
LAST 14 DAYS	2.78	10.57	10.00	3.10		1.36	5.79	5.79	9.00
BATTER SPLITS	Note: Batter Splits Below Open in Pop Up Window
	SEA vs R		SEA BvP			DET vs L		DET BvP

Pitcher Grind Down

• Joe Saunders – Saunders has not been pitching well lately. His ERA since the All-Star break is above 7 and he has really struggled on the road. He’s not a recommended option in the least against the Tigers. Starter Rating = 1

• Rick Porcello – Porcello struggles against left hand hitters. He is giving up a .310 batting average to lefties and the Mariners will have at least 6 lefties in that lineup tonight. Even though he is a big favorite, tread lightly. Starter Rating = 5

Batter Grind Down

SEA – Like I said, Porcello really has problems with left hand bats. That means Brad Miller, Kendrys Morales, Kyle Seager, and Dustin Ackley are all good options tonight.

DET – If there was ever a day to stack the Tigers, today would be it. Saunders has an ERA over 7 in his last 8 starts and is giving up a .343 batting average on the road. You can make an argument for all Tigers to be on your roster.

Miami vs. Philadelphia

7:05 PM	Miami – ROAD					Philadelphia – HOME
TEAM BATTING	AVG	OPS	K%	FPAB		AVG	OPS	K%	FPAB
SEASON	0.231	0.623	19.80%	0.43		0.248	0.694	19.90%	0.52
VS. LEFT/RIGHT	0.234	0.663	21.10%	0.38		0.253	0.701	19.90%	0.41
SP STATS	Dyson – RHP					Lee – LHP
	WHIP	ERA	K/9	FPPG		WHIP	ERA	K/9	FPPG
SEASON	1.13	4.50	4.50	2.67		1.03	2.97	8.45	13.29
LAST 14 DAYS	0.67	1.50	6.00	4.50		0.50	1.69	10.69	20.00
BATTER SPLITS	Note: Batter Splits Below Open in Pop Up Window
	MIA vs L		MIA BvP			PHI vs R		PHI BvP

Pitcher Grind Down

• Sam Dyson – It’s that time of year when teams that don’t make the playoffs call up their prospects from the minors. Dyson has pitched well in the minors, but he has a very low K rate close to 5 per 9 innings. I’m siding with the Phillies here. Starter Rating = 3

• Cliff Lee – Lee is by far the top pitching option tonight. The Marlins are only batting .234 against lefties and Lee has been lights out in his last few starts. Lee is always a good pitcher to take because he can get you close to double digit K’s and pitches deep into games. Starter Rating = 10

Batter Grind Down

MIA – Lee is pitching well and the Marlins bats haven’t been hitting. This is an easy one to avoid.

PHI – Dyson is a rookie making his first career start. He is a right hand pitcher so targeting the lefties of the Phillies isn’t a bad idea. Chase Utley and Cody Asche are the two that come to mind.

Texas vs. Tampa Bay

7:10 PM	Texas – ROAD					Tampa Bay – HOME
TEAM BATTING	AVG	OPS	K%	FPAB		AVG	OPS	K%	FPAB
SEASON	0.262	0.740	16.80%	0.62		0.262	0.748	18.70%	0.62
VS. LEFT/RIGHT	0.261	0.731	17.10%	0.46		0.250	0.734	19.00%	0.48
SP STATS	Garza – RHP					Cobb – RHP
	WHIP	ERA	K/9	FPPG		WHIP	ERA	K/9	FPPG
SEASON	1.19	3.79	8.20	11.44		1.22	3.08	8.10	11.53
LAST 14 DAYS	1.64	6.55	8.18	6.50		1.61	5.40	7.23	6.60
BATTER SPLITS	Note: Batter Splits Below Open in Pop Up Window
	TEX vs R		TEX BvP			TBR vs R		TBR BvP

Pitcher Grind Down

• Matt Garza – This is a huge series for both of these teams. They are currently tied, both leading the Wild Card race, but are only a half game ahead of Cleveland. This series could be a huge swing for both teams if someone can sweep the series. Garza is a high strikeout pitcher, but he’s given up at least 3 earned runs in 3 of his last 4 starts. Starter Rating = 5

• Alex Cobb – I like Cobb a little more than Garza today. Cobb has pitched really well at home this season and needs to pitch well again today. When there are two pitchers that I can’t decide between, I favor the one at home. Starter Rating =6

Batter Grind Down

TEX – The Rangers bats have gone a bit quiet over the last few games. They have a tough matchup against Cobb who pitches well at home. I like to take hitters in games with higher totals.

TB – Evan Longoria has been playing well of late and looks to be in a good spot against Garza. Longo always seems to come up big in September and I think he has a big series. I also like new leadoff man David Dejesus, he is cheap and doesn’t strike out that often.

Chicago Cubs vs. Milwaukee

8:10 PM	Chicago Cubs – ROAD					Milwaukee – HOME
TEAM BATTING	AVG	OPS	K%	FPAB		AVG	OPS	K%	FPAB
SEASON	0.240	0.702	20.10%	0.54		0.254	0.714	19.70%	0.57
VS. LEFT/RIGHT	0.241	0.702	19.40%	0.43		0.250	0.702	18.90%	0.42
SP STATS	Jackson – RHP					Peralta – RHP
	WHIP	ERA	K/9	FPPG		WHIP	ERA	K/9	FPPG
SEASON	1.43	4.76	6.94	8.33		1.41	4.49	6.22	8.04
LAST 14 DAYS	1.50	3.00	6.00	10.00		1.31	4.26	9.59	11.60
BATTER SPLITS	Note: Batter Splits Below Open in Pop Up Window
	CHC vs R		CHC BvP			MIL vs R		MIL BvP

Pitcher Grind Down

• Edwin Jackson – Jackson is an average to below average pitcher playing on a below average team. Even when he pitches well he can’t rely on any run support. Not the kind of pitcher I like to have on my team. Starter Rating = 3

• Wily Peralta – Peralta has gone 4 straight starts without giving up more than 3 earned runs. While that may not sound like much, it shows that he has been able to find a bit of consistency. I like the matchup today against the Cubs who are counting down the days until the end of the season. Starter Rating = 5

Batter Grind Down

CHC – This could be a high scoring game as neither of these pitchers have been reliable this season. If you are going to take any Cubbies, take the lefties against Peralta.

MIL – Jonathan Lucroy is a name that I haven’t heard in quite a while. He’s batting close to .300 on the season and has 17 HR’s. He is a good catching option today against Jackson. I also like Carlos Gomez, he has both speed and pop, two things that pay off in daily fantasy baseball.

Grind Down: Page 1 – Page 2