MLB Daily Grind Down: Saturday, September 14th

by Ethan Haskell (Ethan) Last Updated 2013-09-14 17:47:27

The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down article will give you an in-depth analysis into the MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: Any Fantasy Point Average Listed Uses FanDuel Scoring. For more info on FanDuel’s MLB Scoring System, check out the scoring systems section of our FanDuel Review

• FPAB – Fantasy Points Per At Bat
• K% – Strikeout Percentage
• K/9 – Strikeouts Per 9 IP

Cincinnati vs. Milwaukee

1:05 PM	Cincinnati – ROAD					Milwaukee – HOME
TEAM BATTING	AVG	OPS	K%	FPAB		AVG	OPS	K%	FPAB
SEASON	0.249	0.718	20.10%	0.58		0.254	0.714	19.70%	0.57
VS. LEFT/RIGHT	0.251	0.723	20.10%	0.47		0.251	0.713	18.90%	0.43
SP STATS	Bailey – RHP					Hellweg – RHP
	WHIP	ERA	K/9	FPPG		WHIP	ERA	K/9	FPPG
SEASON	1.10	3.39	8.95	12.04
LAST 14 DAYS	0.76	0.84	10.24	17.03
BATTER SPLITS	Note: Batter Splits Below Open in Pop Up Window
	CIN vs R		CIN BvP			MIL vs R		MIL BvP

Pitcher Grind Down

• Homer Bailey – He has a 0.89 ERA over his last 3 starts with 10.2 K/9. The downside is the 4.92 ERA in 4 starts against the Brewers this year. He’s a safe bet to pick up the win though, with Hellweg opposing him, and that combined with recent success makes him a great play for the early games. Starter Rating: 8 out of 10
• Johnny Hellweg – He has an ERA over 8 in 4 starts this season and is facing an offense that is above average. Avoid. Starter Rating: 0 out of 10

Batter Grind Down

• I’m avoiding MIL bats but Khris Davis has 2 HR in 5 ABs vs. Bailey
• Target Cincinnati Lefties. Hellweg has a 1.269 OPS against left handed bats this season.
• Comparatively, righties have an OPS of just over .450 against Hellweg. Those are some of the sharper splits I’ve seen in awhile

NY Yankees vs. Boston

1:05 PM	NY Yankees – ROAD					Boston – HOME
TEAM BATTING	AVG	OPS	K%	FPAB		AVG	OPS	K%	FPAB
SEASON	0.246	0.685	19.40%	0.55		0.273	0.780	20.40%	0.68
VS. LEFT/RIGHT	0.249	0.681	18.90%	0.41		0.254	0.726	20.90%	0.46
SP STATS	Sabathia – LHP					Lester – LHP
	WHIP	ERA	K/9	FPPG		WHIP	ERA	K/9	FPPG
SEASON	1.35	4.86	7.57	10.32		1.31	3.86	7.46	10.74
LAST 14 DAYS	1.31	5.54	5.54	10.50		1.29	3.00	8.14	12.33
BATTER SPLITS	Note: Batter Splits Below Open in Pop Up Window
	NYY vs L		NYY BvP			BOS vs L		BOS BvP

Pitcher Grind Down

• CC Sabathia – Sabathia’s road ERA is approaching 6 and he just hasn’t been striking out enough batters to offer any daily fantasy value. Add in that his ERA is 7.79 in 4 starts against the Red Sox, who are beyond hot, and he’s not an option today. Starter Rating: 3 out of 10
• Jon Lester – The 10 hits in his last start against these Yankees is a little worrisome but he still battled through 8 IP and struck out 6. He’s been superb in most of his last 10 starts and pitches better at home with a 3.86 ERA. He’s an option in GPPs. Starter Rating: 7 out of 10

Batter Grind Down

• BvP Explosion in this game
• Jarrod Saltalamacchia has 2 HR in the last 2 days and is 7-21 lifetime off CC. Napoli has 2 HR off CC, and Pedroia is 15-49 off Sabathia
• Overbay is 9-25 with 2 HR off Lester. A-Fraud is just 11-45 but has 3 HR off Lester. Reynolds, Stewart, Ichiro and Grandy all also have HRs off Lester
• CC has really struggled against righties this season, allowing 23 HR’s and a .802 OPS against in almost 600 ABs. Jonny Gomes could be a great play for value today

Baltimore vs. Toronto

1:07 PM	Baltimore – ROAD					Toronto – HOME
TEAM BATTING	AVG	OPS	K%	FPAB		AVG	OPS	K%	FPAB
SEASON	0.264	0.755	18.10%	0.63		0.252	0.733	18.00%	0.62
VS. LEFT/RIGHT	0.271	0.777	17.70%	0.53		0.255	0.748	17.90%	0.50
SP STATS	Tillman – RHP					Rogers – RHP
	WHIP	ERA	K/9	FPPG		WHIP	ERA	K/9	FPPG
SEASON	1.26	3.71	7.53	10.90		1.38	4.46	6.12	4.10
LAST 14 DAYS	1.32	4.38	8.18	10.55		0.59	1.04	5.26	11.03
BATTER SPLITS	Note: Batter Splits Below Open in Pop Up Window
	BAL vs R		BAL BvP			TOR vs R		TOR BvP

Pitcher Grind Down

• Chris Tillman – 3 of his last 4 starts have been gems and as long as he can keep the ball in the park he’s a great pitcher. He has 15 K’s in 17 IP against Toronto this season and this Toronto lineup shouldn’t breathe fear into anyone anymore. He’s also a good sized favorite. Starter Rating: 7 out of 10
• Esmil Rogers – He’s allowed just 4 hits in his last 2 outings combined and has been a nice surprise for the Jays. Forgive me if I’m not quite ready to jump on the bandwagon though, he’s in a really tough spot and is prone to getting smacked on any day. Starter Rating: 2 out of 10

Batter Grind Down

• Tillman’s achilles heel has been the long ball, of which he’s allowed 27 on the season.
• Colby Rasmus returned last night and homered, he also is 5-11 with a HR off Tillman
• Arencibia, Lowrie and Encarnacion all also have HRs off of Tillman. Lind may be the best play though, coming off a strong week
• Esmil Rogers has allowed lefties to hit .298 against this season, the third worst split among today’s pitchers.
• The line is set at 9 so I see this game getting some scoring out of the Orioles mostly, but the Jays as well

Philadelphia vs. Washington

7:05 PM	Philadelphia – ROAD					Washington – HOME
TEAM BATTING	AVG	OPS	K%	FPAB		AVG	OPS	K%	FPAB
SEASON	0.248	0.694	19.90%	0.52		0.247	0.700	20.20%	0.54
VS. LEFT/RIGHT	0.230	0.670	20.80%	0.40		0.231	0.670	20.40%	0.40
SP STATS	Hamels – LHP					Gonzalez – LHP
	WHIP	ERA	K/9	FPPG		WHIP	ERA	K/9	FPPG
SEASON	1.13	3.45	8.19	11.17		1.29	3.49	9.15	11.01
LAST 14 DAYS	0.73	2.05	10.23	16.67		1.15	0.71	10.33	16.60
BATTER SPLITS	Note: Batter Splits Below Open in Pop Up Window
	PHI vs L		PHI BvP			WSN vs L		WSN BvP

Pitcher Grind Down

• Cole Hamels – 18 K’s in 21 IP and a 3.23 ERA against the Nats makes Hamels one of the better plays today. He has good upside and has just a 2.05 ERA and 10 K/9 over the last 2 weeks. On sites where a win isn’t critical, this is a great play. Starter Rating: 8 out of 10
• Gio Gonzalez – Gio has been better vs. PHI than Cole is against WAS. 22 K’s in 19 2/3 IP and a 1.82 ERA. Add in 3 consecutive great starts and he’s another strong pitching option tonight. Starter Rating: 8 out of 10

Batter Grind Down

• Great game to avoid hitters. This is what MLB.com would call “an ace off”

Chicago Cubs vs. Pittsburgh

7:05 PM	Chicago Cubs – ROAD					Pittsburgh – HOME
TEAM BATTING	AVG	OPS	K%	FPAB		AVG	OPS	K%	FPAB
SEASON	0.240	0.702	20.10%	0.54		0.245	0.705	22.40%	0.55
VS. LEFT/RIGHT	0.244	0.707	19.40%	0.44		0.241	0.696	22.10%	0.41
SP STATS	Baker – RHP					Cole – RHP
	WHIP	ERA	K/9	FPPG		WHIP	ERA	K/9	FPPG
SEASON	0.60	0.00	1.80	6.00		1.20	3.74	6.52	9.54
LAST 14 DAYS	0.60	0.00	1.80	6.00		1.30	3.38	6.18	8.55
BATTER SPLITS	Note: Batter Splits Below Open in Pop Up Window
	CHC vs R		CHC BvP			PIT vs R		PIT BvP

Pitcher Grind Down

• Scott Baker – In his last start he went 5 IP with just 1 K. I don’t think the upside is here today. Starter Rating: 2 out of 10
• Gerrit Cole – He out-dueled Yu in his last start and showed the talent that made him the #1 overall pick. 9 K’s in 7 IP while only allowing 3 hits was impressive, and this opponent is much less of a challenge. Love Cole today. Starter Rating: 7.5 out of 10

Batter Grind Down

• Very little to go on for either side, as two pitchers without a ton of recent experience take the hill
• Andrew McCutchen is always a safe play, but Alvarez, Buck and Jones went back-to-back-to-back on Friday night
• Pittsburgh suddenly has a wealth of left handed bats through trades, look for Pedro and Morneau to be good options.
• I really like Cole and will likely fade Cubs hitters, but Brian Bogusevic and Ryan Sweeney can both hit for power from the left side of the plate and are dirt cheap

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