MLB Daily Grind Down: Thursday, September 26th

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2013-09-26 20:49:36

The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down article will give you an in-depth analysis into the MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: Any Fantasy Point Average Listed Uses FanDuel Scoring. For more info on FanDuel’s MLB Scoring System, check out the scoring systems section of our FanDuel Review

• FPAB – Fantasy Points Per At Bat
• K% – Strikeout Percentage
• K/9 – Strikeouts Per 9 IP

Arizona vs. San Diego

6:40 PM	Arizona – ROAD					San Diego – HOME
TEAM BATTING	AVG	OPS	K%	FPAB		AVG	OPS	K%	FPAB
SEASON	0.259	0.717	18.30%	0.56		0.247	0.693	20.90%	0.54
VS. LEFT/RIGHT	0.263	0.708	17.20%	0.40		0.242	0.671	20.90%	0.38
SP STATS	Cahill – RHP					Erlin – LHP
	WHIP	ERA	K/9	FPPG		WHIP	ERA	K/9	FPPG
SEASON	1.41	4.02	6.32	8.36		1.36	4.34	6.29	6.92
LAST 14 DAYS	1.29	1.59	5.82	11.00		1.06	1.32	6.82	12.60
BATTER SPLITS	Note: Batter Splits Below Open in Pop Up Window
	ARI vs L		ARI BvP			SDP vs R		SDP BvP

Pitcher Grind Down

• Trevor Cahill – This game is starting at 6:40 ET so it may not be included in any leagues tonight, but we will break it down just in case. Cahill has pitched well over this last couple starts with a 1.59 ERA. While his upside is certainly limited, you don’t get many better matchups than facing the Padres in Petco. Rating = 5

• Robbie Erlin – Erlin is a young lefty that is surprisingly bad against left hand hitters. That’s not a bad thing when facing the D-Backs because their best hitters are all right handed. Erlin has pitched well at home this season with a 2.08 ERA while holding opponents to a .224 batting average. Rating = 6

Batter Grind Down

ARI – Erlin is giving up a .333 batting average to lefties on the season so if you like to follow the splits, you can target either Gerardo Parra or Adam Eaton.

SD – After the Padres big win last night, I’m still not sold on their offense. Their bats have been ice cold this month and I’d rather take the pitcher against them than any hitters.

Toronto vs. Baltimore

7:05 PM	Toronto – ROAD					Baltimore – HOME
TEAM BATTING	AVG	OPS	K%	FPAB		AVG	OPS	K%	FPAB
SEASON	0.252	0.733	18.00%	0.62		0.264	0.755	18.10%	0.63
VS. LEFT/RIGHT	0.254	0.744	18.00%	0.49		0.253	0.718	18.50%	0.45
SP STATS	Buehrle – LHP					Gonzalez – RHP
	WHIP	ERA	K/9	FPPG		WHIP	ERA	K/9	FPPG
SEASON	1.33	4.09	6.21	9.22		1.26	3.94	6.31	8.52
LAST 14 DAYS	1.80	6.60	6.60	6.33		1.11	3.63	5.26	8.03
BATTER SPLITS	Note: Batter Splits Below Open in Pop Up Window
	TOR vs R		TOR BvP			BAL vs L		BAL BvP

Pitcher Grind Down

• Mark Buehrle – Buehrle has really pitched well since the All-Star break. His ERA has been under 3 since then. While the Orioles aren’t the best team against lefties, they are still a very potent offense. I think there are better options out there than Buehrle. Rating = 4

• Miguel Gonzalez – Gonzalez has pitched pretty well at home this season with a 3.80 ERA and he has really pitched well against this Blue Jays team. He has faced them 4 times this season and has a 2.96 ERA against them. There aren’t many aces on the mound today so you may have to dig deep to find some good value pitchers. I think Gonzalez is one of them. Rating = 5

Batter Grind Down

TOR – Gonzalez has kept his average against lefties and righties down so the splits don’t really favor hitters from either side of the plate. I do like Jose Reyes as he is always in play, but the rest of the team doesn’t look to be in a great spot.

BAL – Adam Jones, Matt Wieters, and J.J. Hardy all hit lefties well and are all in play against Buehrle tonight. Chris Davis could also be considered as he has 2 HR’s off of Buerhle in his career.

Tampa Bay vs. NY Yankees

7:05 PM	Tampa Bay – ROAD					NY Yankees – HOME
TEAM BATTING	AVG	OPS	K%	FPAB		AVG	OPS	K%	FPAB
SEASON	0.262	0.748	18.70%	0.62		0.246	0.685	19.40%	0.55
VS. LEFT/RIGHT	0.250	0.734	19.00%	0.48		0.245	0.694	19.80%	0.42
SP STATS	Cobb – RHP					Nova – RHP
	WHIP	ERA	K/9	FPPG		WHIP	ERA	K/9	FPPG
SEASON	1.18	2.90	8.60	12.48		1.29	3.13	7.56	10.60
LAST 14 DAYS	1.09	2.45	10.64	16.67		1.32	3.79	5.21	8.67
BATTER SPLITS	Note: Batter Splits Below Open in Pop Up Window
	TBR vs R		TBR BvP			NYY vs R		NYY BvP

Pitcher Grind Down

• Alex Cobb – Cobb and the Rays are still clinging to a 1 game lead over the Rangers and the Yankees are officially eliminated from the playoffs. This game is going to mean a lot more to the Rays than the Yankees. Cobb has been solid all season long and has pitched very well against New York. He has faced them 3 times this season, has an ERA of 1.61, and has 20 K’s over 22 innings pitched. Things are looking good for Cobb tonight. Rating = 7

• Ivan Nova – This could be the last game in Yankee Stadium for a few different players. Mariano, Jeter, and A-Rod all might be gone next season. Nova is one of those pitchers that can throw a complete game or end up only lasting a few innings. I don’t love the matchup for Nova and I think he will fall short of picking up the win. Rating = 4

Batter Grind Down

TB – James Loney and David DeJesus are both swinging hot bats and have the lefty/righty splits in their favor. Ben Zobrist does as well and is a decent option at 2B. However, my favorite play on the Rays is Evan Longoria who had 2 HR’s last night.

NYY – Even though I really like Cobb tonight, you can never rule out Robinson Cano at home when he is facing a right hand pitcher. Especially considering the fact that he has already hit 3 HR’s off of Cobb.

Philadelphia vs. Atlanta

7:10 PM	Philadelphia – ROAD					Atlanta – HOME
TEAM BATTING	AVG	OPS	K%	FPAB		AVG	OPS	K%	FPAB
SEASON	0.248	0.694	19.90%	0.52		0.252	0.731	22.40%	0.59
VS. LEFT/RIGHT	0.253	0.701	19.90%	0.41		0.252	0.735	22.60%	0.48
SP STATS	Cloyd – RHP					Hale – RHP
	WHIP	ERA	K/9	FPPG		WHIP	ERA	K/9	FPPG
SEASON	1.64	5.40	5.89	6.28		1.00	0.00	16.20	14.00
LAST 14 DAYS	2.08	11.77	6.92	2.00		1.00	0.00	16.20	14.00
BATTER SPLITS	Note: Batter Splits Below Open in Pop Up Window
	PHI vs R		PHI BvP			ATL vs R		ATL BvP

Pitcher Grind Down

• Tyler Cloyd – Cloyd has given up at least 5 earned runs in 4 of his last 5 starts. He is not a reliable fantasy option and the Braves may treat this as batting practice. Check the Braves lineup and get a few of them in your lineup. All the while, avoid taking Cloyd. Rating = 2

• David Hale – Hale really pitched well in his first start. He threw 5 scoreless innings while striking out 9 batters against the Padres. Hale isn’t a top prospect though and he didn’t post great minor league numbers. I think he will come back down to earth and struggle a bit against the Phillies. Rating = 4

Batter Grind Down

PHI – This game could be a sneaky high scoring game. I don’t like either of the pitchers so taking a couple of hitters on each team could be a nice play. Hale is a right hand pitcher so the left hand power bats of Chase Utley and Domonic Brown look like excellent plays.

ATL – The Braves are in a really good spot tonight against Cloyd who has been giving up runs by the bundle. I’m not sure if they are going to start resting hitters, but check their lineup and get a few of them on your roster. I really like Justin Upton and Freddie Freeman if they are in the lineup.

Milwaukee vs. NY Mets

7:10 PM	Milwaukee – ROAD					NY Mets – HOME
TEAM BATTING	AVG	OPS	K%	FPAB		AVG	OPS	K%	FPAB
SEASON	0.254	0.714	19.70%	0.57		0.239	0.683	22.20%	0.54
VS. LEFT/RIGHT	0.250	0.702	18.90%	0.42		0.238	0.679	21.90%	0.41
SP STATS	Hellweg – RHP					Gee – RHP
	WHIP	ERA	K/9	FPPG		WHIP	ERA	K/9	FPPG
SEASON						1.28	3.54	6.53	9.84
LAST 14 DAYS						1.25	3.66	7.50	10.40
BATTER SPLITS	Note: Batter Splits Below Open in Pop Up Window
	MIL vs R		MIL BvP			NYM vs R		NYM BvP

Pitcher Grind Down

• Johnny Hellweg – Hellweg has an ERA over 7 on the season including an ERA over 9 on the road. I don’t care if he was facing a AAA ball club on the road, I still wouldn’t start him. Target a few Mets today, especially the lefties. Rating = 1

• Dillon Gee – Gee has pitched well at home this season where he has posted a 2.53 ERA. The Brewers lineup is pretty solid right now, but Citi Field is such a pitcher friendly park that I’m not too worried about it. Gee should pitch well and get enough run support to get the win. Rating = 6

Batter Grind Down

MIL – Not a big fan of the Brewers bats today, they have a tough matchup in a pitcher’s park.

NYM – I had to double and triple check these splits: Hellweg is giving up a .426 batting average to lefties and an OPS of 1.253. If that doesn’t sell you on the left hand hitters of the Mets, I don’t know what will. Target Daniel Murphy, Lucas Duda, and Eric Young.

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