MLB Daily Grind Down: Wednesday, August 14th

by Ethan Haskell (Ethan) Last Updated 2013-08-14 17:34:41

The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down article will give you an in-depth analysis into the MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: Any Fantasy Point Average Listed Uses FanDuel Scoring. For more info on FanDuel’s MLB Scoring System, check out the scoring systems section of our FanDuel Review

• FPAB – Fantasy Points Per At Bat
• K% – Strikeout Percentage
• K/9 – Strikeouts Per 9 IP

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Cleveland vs. Minnesota

1:10 PM	Cleveland – ROAD					Minnesota – HOME
TEAM BATTING	AVG	OPS	K%	FPAB		AVG	OPS	K%	FPAB
SEASON	0.256	0.736	21.30%	0.64		0.241	0.695	22.00%	0.54
VS. LEFT/RIGHT	0.249	0.722	22.10%	0.47		0.238	0.694	21.80%	0.43
SP STATS	Carrasco – RHP					Gibson – RHP
	WHIP	ERA	K/9	FPPG		WHIP	ERA	K/9	FPPG
SEASON	1.93	7.75	5.15	3.31		1.64	6.43	5.14	5.50
LAST 14 DAYS	0.80	0.00	7.20	9.00		1.97	7.90	6.14	3.40
BATTER SPLITS	Note: Batter Splits Below Open in Pop Up Window
	CLE vs R		CLE BvP			MIN vs R		MIN BvP

What Vegas Says

• Over/Under Total Runs – 9.0
• Favored Team – Cleveland (-111)

Pitcher Grind Down

• Easy one to start. Unless you’re a big fan of torturing yourself with massive gambles, neither of these pitchers are worth a look.
• With 6 early games today, you don’t need to roll Gibson or Carrasco.

Batter Grind Down

• Go to our pitcher splits page and sort “vs. left handed batters” by OPS biggest to smallest. The 2 pitchers in this game rank 1st and 3rd worst for today.
• Lefty bats on either side are in play today; Mauer, Morneau, Arcia, and Clete Thomas for MIN. Anyone on the Indians since they are mostly left handed or switch hitters.
• Jason Giambi is hitting 6th today against a righty. That could be some tremendous value.

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Detroit vs. Chicago White Sox

2:10 PM	Detroit – ROAD					Chicago White Sox – HOME
TEAM BATTING	AVG	OPS	K%	FPAB		AVG	OPS	K%	FPAB
SEASON	0.279	0.783	17.50%	0.65		0.248	0.678	19.60%	0.51
VS. LEFT/RIGHT	0.272	0.787	19.10%	0.55		0.250	0.685	19.50%	0.40
SP STATS	Porcello – RHP					Danks – LHP
	WHIP	ERA	K/9	FPPG		WHIP	ERA	K/9	FPPG
SEASON	1.26	4.32	6.77	8.68		1.18	4.52	6.62	8.35
LAST 14 DAYS	1.43	3.38	6.43	9.40		1.16	3.32	8.53	10.00
BATTER SPLITS	Note: Batter Splits Below Open in Pop Up Window
	DET vs L		DET BvP			CHW vs R		CHW BvP

What Vegas Says –

• Over/Under Total Runs – 9.0
• Favored Team – DET (-155)

Pitcher Grind Down

• In 3 starts vs. the White Sox this season, Rick Porcello has thrown 20.2 IP with 11 K’s, a 1.11 WHIP and 1.89 ERA. His fantasy average nearly doubles in games against CHW. He’s definitely a target for today’s action.
• Danks on the other side has K’d 15 hitters in 13 IP over his last 2 starts. His home splits are strong as well. Still, I can’t advise taking anyone against this Detroit lineup, especially when Fielder and Miggy hit lefties better than righties. At best he’s an upside GPP play.

Batter Grind Down

• For the White Sox, Alexei Ramirez has 11 hits and 2 HR over the past 7 days and could be a good option.Adam Dunn and Conor Gillaspie have solid BvP splits. Dunn is 6-17 with 2 HR and Gillaspie is 4-9 with a HR. The afore mentioned Ramirez is just 7-39 though so using him has to depend on what you rely on for making your picks (recent history, BvP, etc).
• Austin Jackson is crushing the ball and is 13-33 lifetime off of Danks with 3 HR. Torii Hunter is 13-40 with 3 HR as well. I like Tuiasosopo today as well but the 1-11 BvP split is a touch concerning.
• Miggy and Fielder are both in play too. Fielder is 5-9 lifetime vs. Danks. Miggy has struggled a bit, going just 9-31 with no HR (which is surreal for his standards).

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Miami vs. Kansas City

2:10 PM	Miami – ROAD					Kansas City – HOME
TEAM BATTING	AVG	OPS	K%	FPAB		AVG	OPS	K%	FPAB
SEASON	0.231	0.622	19.50%	0.43		0.259	0.692	16.60%	0.55
VS. LEFT/RIGHT	0.232	0.614	18.80%	0.31		0.260	0.698	16.70%	0.41
SP STATS	Turner – RHP					Santana – RHP
	WHIP	ERA	K/9	FPPG		WHIP	ERA	K/9	FPPG
SEASON	1.23	2.95	6.58	9.78		1.12	3.25	7.08	11.00
LAST 14 DAYS	1.40	4.67	7.89	7.70		1.48	4.86	8.33	10.07
BATTER SPLITS	Note: Batter Splits Below Open in Pop Up Window
	MIA vs R		MIA BvP			KCR vs R		KCR BvP

What Vegas Says

• Over/Under Total Runs – 7.5
• Favored Team – KCR (-210)

Pitcher Grind Down

• Ervin Santana is the biggest favorite of the early games, but that doesn’t come as a surprise since the Marlins seem to be the biggest dog every single day unless Fernandez is on the bump.
• Santana blew up a bit in his last start, which isn’t uncommon for a guy who is HR prone. But the last time he had a really bad performance (in early July vs. NYY), he bounced back with a 7 IP, 6 K shutout vs. Detroit
• Jacob Turner can’t be slept on either here. Kansas City’s offense is hot but not good enough to scare me away from Turner who an K in bunches. I’d like him a whole lot better if he was at home where he’s averaging twice as many FPPG but still, he’s a variance play for the early set.

Batter Grind Down

• I don’t love either of the offenses in this game. No one on either team has much BvP history against the opposing starter to work from either.
• Greg Dobbs hitting 5th and Logan Morrison hitting 3rd might be two value plays worth a look today. Santana has been strong vs. both left and right handed bats but Dobbs and Morrison have some decent upside against him because he’s prone to giving up a long ball or two.
• Lefties are hitting just .243 off of turner and righties are at .231. Like I said, he’s been pretty good this season and the O/U is low. I’m not in love with any of the KCR bats.

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Cincinnati vs. Chicago Cubs

2:20 PM	Cincinnati – ROAD					Chicago Cubs – HOME
TEAM BATTING	AVG	OPS	K%	FPAB		AVG	OPS	K%	FPAB
SEASON	0.250	0.723	20.10%	0.58		0.241	0.704	19.70%	0.54
VS. LEFT/RIGHT	0.248	0.714	20.00%	0.43		0.244	0.708	18.80%	0.44
SP STATS	Arroyo – RHP					Rusin – LHP
	WHIP	ERA	K/9	FPPG		WHIP	ERA	K/9	FPPG
SEASON	1.15	3.51	5.34	9.49		1.30	3.08	6.21	8.62
LAST 14 DAYS	1.44	6.19	7.31	7.33		1.33	2.00	6.00	10.00
BATTER SPLITS	Note: Batter Splits Below Open in Pop Up Window
	CIN vs L		CIN BvP			CHC vs R		CHC BvP

What Vegas Says

• Over/Under Total Runs – 8.0
• Favored Team – CIN (-110)

Pitcher Grind Down

• Arroyo has been Jekyll/Hyde all season long with his home and road starts. His 4.21 road ERA compared to a shade over 3 at home tells you all you need to know. He did bounce back from 2 consecutive stinkers with a gem last time out vs. SDP, but the Cubbies hit pretty well at home and have a ton of left handed bats. I don’t like his spot today.

• Chris Rusin has over performed heavily of late. I’m not chomping at the bit to get him into my lineup. The Reds are below average vs. lefties but they recently got lefty destroyer Ryan Ludwick and halfway decent right handed Ryan Hanigan back in the lineup so I’d look out.

Batter Grind Down

• Arroyo has allowed 13 HR to left handed bats and a .286 batting average against. I’m all for targeting DeJesus, Rizzo, and Schierholtz today.

• Cincinnati has a slew of guys known for crushing left handed pitching. Ludwick hasn’t played much this season but had a .936 OPS against lefties last year. Hanigan hits about 40 points better for average against lefties. Brandon Phillips has an .818 OPS against lefties this season. Chris Heisey OPS vs. lefties is just under .800 as well.

• Not a ton of BvP history in this game but Schierholtz and Castro have hit Arroyo decently. Rizzo has struggled in a small sample size and DeJesus is just 4-22 lifetime off of Arroyo.

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San Diego vs. Colorado

3:10 PM	San Diego – ROAD					Colorado – HOME
TEAM BATTING	AVG	OPS	K%	FPAB		AVG	OPS	K%	FPAB
SEASON	0.245	0.690	20.60%	0.55		0.262	0.734	19.80%	0.60
VS. LEFT/RIGHT	0.256	0.741	20.30%	0.48		0.265	0.751	20.00%	0.49
SP STATS	Cashner – RHP					De La Rosa – LHP
	WHIP	ERA	K/9	FPPG		WHIP	ERA	K/9	FPPG
SEASON	1.29	3.87	6.07	7.71		1.37	3.26	6.13	9.25
LAST 14 DAYS	1.50	4.00	5.00	9.33		2.21	5.79	5.79	6.00
BATTER SPLITS	Note: Batter Splits Below Open in Pop Up Window
	SDP vs L		SDP BvP			COL vs R		COL BvP

What Vegas Says

• Over/Under Total Runs – 9.5
• Favored Team – COL (-135)

Pitcher Grind Down

• De La Rosa is hit or miss but somehow has thrown better at Coors this season. He’s also done well in 3 starts versus the Padres, posting a K per inning and 3.6 ERA against. I’d still be cautious here as the Padres hit lefties fairly well. With that said, not having Quentin or Blanks in the lineup makes that left handed mashability much lower for SDP.

• Cashner hasn’t struck out more than 6 batters in any of his last 10 starts and has only lasted until the 7th inning in one of those. He’s an avoid today in Coors.

Batter Grind Down

• Righties are hitting .248 off of Cashner while lefties are hitting at a .263 rate. Neither of those are overly note worthy so I think the best thing to look for in the Rockies lineup is value. Corey Dickerson should be in the lineup and is fairly cheap on most sites. Helton has been hitting well lately. Look out for Tulo though, something isn’t right with him right now and he’s really struggling at the plate.

• Right handed bats are at .281 with a .747 OPS against De La Rosa. I think that opens the doors to some good value in the Padres with Gyorko, Forsythe, Guzman and maybe Hundley. Gyorko has an .849 OPS against lefties, Guzman has a .915 OPS on the road this season (really weird split), and Forsythe has some decent upside.

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Baltimore vs. Arizona

3:40 PM	Baltimore – ROAD					Arizona – HOME
TEAM BATTING	AVG	OPS	K%	FPAB		AVG	OPS	K%	FPAB
SEASON	0.265	0.757	18.30%	0.63		0.257	0.713	18.50%	0.55
VS. LEFT/RIGHT	0.245	0.694	19.00%	0.42		0.255	0.714	19.20%	0.45
SP STATS	Tillman – RHP					Corbin – LHP
	WHIP	ERA	K/9	FPPG		WHIP	ERA	K/9	FPPG
SEASON	1.29	3.73	7.59	11.13		1.03	2.36	7.67	12.87
LAST 14 DAYS	1.22	4.73	9.62	12.05		1.15	2.70	8.10	10.67
BATTER SPLITS	Note: Batter Splits Below Open in Pop Up Window
	BAL vs L		BAL BvP			ARI vs R		ARI BvP

What Vegas Says

• Over/Under Total Runs – 8
• Favored Team – ARI (-126)

Pitcher Grind Down

• Chris Tillman has been a monster in 3 of his last 4 starts. With the exception of a dud vs. the Mariners, he averaged over 7 IP and 9 K/9 over the 3 good starts. The Dbacks have the 7th best batting average over the past 7 days though and seem to be finding their stride offensively with Aaron Hill in the midst of a big hot streak. Tillman seems like a GPP guy only today.
• Patrick Corbin is always in play, and although the Orioles are one of the leagues better offenses I don’t think he should be avoided at all costs today. The back to back disappointing starts against the Mets and BoSox is reason for concern but he’s better at home and the O’s hit just .248 off lefties as a team.

Batter Grind Down

• Chris Tillman has an affinity for giving up taters. He has allowed 11 to right handed bats this season and is allowing righties to hit for an .811 OPS against. Goldie, Hill, Prado are all in play against him.
• Corbin is holding righties to a .216 average against and lefties to a .186 average. I’m not sure who I’d target from Baltimore but Hardy and Wieters are probably the best places to start. Both hit lefties well and both have a HR already in this series.

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