MLB DFS: Home Runs - Under and Overachievers
Now that we’re about a quarter of the way through the season, we have enough of a sample size to look for players who are under or over-performing based on good or bad luck. In the piece I wrote about home runs, I examined how three things need to happen for a home run: 1) Contact 2) Fly Ball 3) Fly Ball Goes Far.
The ‘Fly Ball Goes Far’ part is where there is some common misunderstanding. The advanced metric to measure the amount of fly balls that turn into home runs is HR/FB%, home run to fly ball percentage. Nearly all major league pitchers end up clustered around the league average 10% HR/FB%, but hitters all establish their own baselines of HR/FB% throughout their careers. Over time, a strong power hitter will maintain a HR/FB% over 20%, while a light-hitting speedster may never top 5%. In any short period of time, a player may not be doing anything out of their norm, except a handful of fly balls get caught inches from the wall, where a simple gust of wind would’ve turned it into a home run.
In season long fantasy analysis, looking at HR/FB% to find buy low or sell high candidates is a common and useful exercise. I firmly believe it is also a useful tool in DFS, though a little less clear. If a low or high HR/FB% trend is going to regress back towards its average, you can’t expect to catch it perfectly on the day it’s going to happen; it’s more of a long-term regression. But, what we find in DFS is player’s salaries fluctuate so much on recent performance, you end up with players priced substantially higher or lower than what their actual skills say they should be. I warn you in advance, some of the guys on the ‘overpriced’ list are not going to make you happy. Sorry.
My goal with this exercise is not to give you a full exhaustive list of players to target or avoid, but to help give you more tools for your own analysis. There are just three numbers we’re going to look at to determine who is likely to start hitting more HRs as the season moves on, and who is likely to be coming down. First is contact rate; we need to know that a player is not striking out significantly more than in the past. Second is fly ball rate. Since HR come from fly balls, we need to make sure there hasn’t been a big change in a batters swing that could be leading to more groundballs (or more fly balls in the case of the HR leaders). Finally, we look at the variable HR/FB%, and this is where we’re looking for our target players.
The 2015 data listed here is from games through May 20th. As some of these guys hit HRs in the coming days, you’ll be able to look and see how one or two HRs change the percentages. The impact on overall percentages gets smaller as the sample size increases. Without further ado, here’s a look at some players who should be expected to start hitting more home runs as the season moves on:
Matt Kemp
2012 – 22.9% K, 35% FB, 21.7% HR/FB
2013 (injury shortened) – 26.2% K, 35% FB, 9.1% HR/FB
2014 – 24.2% K, 31% FB, 20% HR/FB
2015 – 19% K, 30% FB, 2.6% HR/FB
My take on Matt Kemp – He has been hitting a few more groundballs since last season, but outside of the injury shortened season he has been a consistent 20% HR/FB hitter. Even if we dock him a little bit for moving to Petco Park, his numbers will come up.
Troy Tulowitzki
2012 – 9.4% K, 37% FB, 13.3% HR/FB
2013 – 16.6% K, 38% FB, 18.1% HR/FB
2014 – 15.2% K, 39% FB, 20.6% HR/FB
2015 – 22.0% K, 40% FB, 5.0% HR/FB
My take on Troy Tulowitzki – The increase in strikeout rate is somewhat concerning, as that is a stat that tends to stabilize early in the season. If that continues, it may affect my willingness to play him in cash games, especially on the road. But as for the home runs, I am not concerned. The 5% HR/FB rate is certain to come up into the mid-high teens and his fly ball rate is holding steady.
Lucas Duda
2012 – 26.1% K, 42% FB, 12.5% HR/FB
2013 – 26.6% K, 48% FB, 14.3% HR/FB
2014 – 22.7% K, 49% FB, 16.0% HR/FB
2015 – 20.6% K, 38% FB, 7.0% HR/FB
My take on Lucas Duda – This is some very interesting data here. Keeping in mind we’re still dealing with a small sample size, the drop in strikeout rate and fly ball rate could mean he is making an intentional change in approach. Either way, the HR/FB% should get back up to at least the 12-13% range, but if continues with the lower K, lower FB skill set, it will shift my thinking on him in cash games vs tournaments.
Brian McCann
2012 – 15.6% K, 41% FB, 13.3% HR/FB
2103 – 16.4% K, 42% FB, 16.3% HR/FB
2014 – 14.3% K, 45% FB, 12.2% HR/FB
2015 – 16.4% K, 46% FB, 8.3% HR/FB
My take on Brian McCann – It was the common thought last season that moving to Yankees stadium would boost his home run totals due to the short left field porch. Despite an increase in fly balls, that didn’t happen, and so far this season we are still waiting. Because his strikeout and fly ball rates are so consistent, I am still buying in on the home run upside from McCann. Even if the home run rate only gets to the 12% from last season, if you can pick and choose your spots with him against fly ball pitchers in home games, he continues to be a high upside tournament player.
Neil Walker
2012 – 19.6% K, 34% FB, 11.2% HR/FB
2013 – 15.4% K, 38% FB, 10.6% HR/FB
2104 – 15.4% K, 39% FB, 13.9% HR/FB
2015 – 16.7% K, 37% FB, 4.5% HR/FB
My take on Neil Walker – His skill set is exactly the same with a better than average K rate and very steady fly ball rate. He simply has a low HR/FB rate that will almost certainly come back up to his baseline. Keep rolling him out there in tournaments against right-handed pitchers.
Now for the Home Run Overachievers:
Starling Marte
2013 – 24.4% K, 27% FB, 12.2% HR/FB
2014 – 24.0% K, 29% FB, 12.7% HR/FB
2015 – 26.3% K, 20% FB, 38.1% HR/FB
My take on Starling Marte – I’m starting with the easy one here. You should be able to clearly see that the home run binge from Marte is not going to sustain itself. The biggest problem is that he just doesn’t hit very many fly balls – he is a heavy ground ball hitter. Even if you say he’s growing into his power at age 26, he is not the type of hitter who is going to see a HR/FB rate over 20%, he’ll probably end up a little higher than his previous 12% seasons, but do not fall in love with him as a home run hitter.
Nelson Cruz
2012 – 21.8% K, 41% FB, 13.1% HR/FB
2013 – 23.9% K, 42 % FB, 21.3% HR/FB
2014 – 20.6% K, 42% FB, 20.4% HR/FB
2105 – 23.0% K, 39% FB, 31.4% HR/FB
My take on Nelson Cruz – There was a big misconception on Nelson Cruz and his 40 HR “breakout” season in 2014. The truth is that he was not really a better home run hitter than he was in 2013, he simply had more at bats. He is a very good power hitter, but he is a 20-21% HR/FB hitter, not a 30% HR/FB hitter. The hot start is going to make people forget that he is taking a huge ballpark hit in Seattle vs Baltimore, and while he will always be a guy who can homer anywhere, his pace is going to slow down.
Bryce Harper
2012 – 20.1% K, 33% FB, 16.2% HR/FB
2013 – 18.9% K, 33% FB, 18.0% HR/FB
2014 – 26.3% K, 35% FB, 15.5% HR/FB
2015 – 23.3% K, 44% FB, 35.7% HR/FB
My take on Bryce Harper – Surely I’m not going to pick on the greatest sports playing human of all time, am I? Well, only sort of…Harper is so young it is reasonable to assume he is still growing into his power. And, he has increased his fly ball rate substantially, implying that he is trying to hit home runs. He could easily top his previous high 18% HR/FB rate and maybe get into the 20’s, but you need to be aware that his current pace is unsustainable. I’m going to be letting other people chase the hot streak with the greatest sports playing human of all time until his salary starts to come back down.
Joc Pederson
2015 – 28.7% K, 47% FB, 34.5% HR/FB
My take on Joc Pederson – Well, this is a tough one since we have no track record to go on. He did hit an impressive 33 HR in AAA in 2014, so he has real power. He also has a very power friendly 47% fly ball rate, and his high strikeout rate fits the profile of a slugger. OK, so he’s a slugger ; what about that HR/FB%? Let me put it this way; in 2002-2004, Barry Bonds hit 46, 45 and 45 HR with fly ball rates of 45-47%. His HR/FB rates those seasons were 27.1%, 29.6% and 29.0%. In 2014, the highest HR/FB% in all of MLB was “(player-popup #jose-abreu)Jose Abreu”:/players/jose-abreu-17437’s 26.9%. So, let me ask you this, do you think Joc Pederson is the greatest home run hitter in this millennium? I didn’t think so.
When you’re looking to stock your tournament lineups with home run hitters, remember there is more to look at than just the raw number of home runs a player has. You can increase your chances of DFS success if you learn how to look beyond the surface stats and see whose salary really matches their skill set.
As always, there are lots of ways to build winning DFS teams and an endless array of stats to analyze, but the very basic HR/FB% is a great place to start. Good luck Grinders!