Covering The Bases: MLB DFS Picks for Saturday, August 3rd
Long-time grinder, stlcardinals84, is here to cover the bases for the upcoming MLB DFS slate. Whether you are looking for the top pitchers or the best stacks, Cards has you covered with an extensive deep dive into his favorite MLB DFS picks.
Happy Saturday, Grinders! Welcome to the first weekend of August! We have a different Saturday than usual today, with only small afternoon slates available. The DFS sites have chosen to focus on the evening slate as the primary offering today, with ten games available on both FanDuel and DraftKings.
If you are playing the three game early slate (two games on FD), we will have expert tags and analysis in our MLB DFS optimizer to help you on your way. In this article, I am going to focus on the main evening slate.
Let’s get to work and see what this Saturday has to offer for MLB DFS picks!
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Saturday Pitching: MLB DFS Picks on FanDuel & DraftKings
TOP TIER ARMS
Jack Flaherty vs. A’s
Hunter Greene vs. Giants
Bailey Ober vs. White Sox
Garrett Crochet vs. Twins
Ronel Blanco vs. Rays
Bryce Miller vs. Phillies
We have a decent number of top arms on the slate today, though I wouldn’t classify any of them as “can’t miss” options given the context of this slate. I’ll dig more into that in a moment, but let’s start with the 2024 data:
Flaherty – 2.95 ERA, 2.59 xFIP, 32% K, 5% BB
Greene – 2.97 ERA, 4.24 xFIP, 27% K, 10% BB
Ober – 3.76 ERA, 3.77 xFIP, 27% K, 6% BB
Crochet – 3.23 ERA, 2.46 xFIP, 35% K, 6% BB
Blanco – 2.95 ERA, 4.19 xFIP, 24% K, 10% BB
Miller – 3.46 ERA, 3.99 xFIP, 23% K, 6% BB
If we are just going off the 2024 numbers, it’s clear that the best two pitchers in this tier are Jack Flaherty and Garrett Crochet. Both have elite strikeout rates, solid command, and they have the top xFIP numbers in this tier. However, I have some concerns about both of them tonight. Flaherty is making his first start for the Dodgers, and he has made a career of ups and downs. He generally thrives in lower profile environments, and I do think he will struggle to adjust to Los Angeles a bit. The Dodgers are also more careful with their pitching staff, and the A’s have been swinging the bats very well of late. I like Flaherty, but I will probably end up underweight on him tonight at his salary.
With Garrett Crochet, it simply comes down to how long the White Sox will let him pitch. In his two starts since the All-Star Break, he has thrown 74 and 64 pitches. That is obviously not going to be enough for him to pay off his DFS salary tag. However, it can be argued that the White Sox were preserving him in the event he was traded at the deadline. That did not happen, so perhaps they let him go longer now. That said, the team has lost 18 games in a row and has made it clear that they will monitor his workload in August and September. I don’t think we are getting 90+ pitches, so I am not going to use him in my DFS builds tonight. If you think the White Sox will let him go longer, he is obviously a fine option.
For my dollar, I will take Bailey Ober. It’s difficult to envision Ober having a poor outing tonight. He has been quietly developing into a top-of-the-rotation arm this season, with a 3.76 ERA and 3.77 xFIP to go along with a 26.8% strikeout rate. He also benefits from a matchup against a White Sox team that has a horrific offense, has given up on the season, and has now lost 18 games in a row. He isn’t the most expensive arm on the board, and he makes sense in any DFS format here.
Hunter Greene isn’t far behind Ober on my list, especially on DK where Greene comes in at a solid discount. He leads the league in pitches per start, and we know the Reds will let him roll if he is pitching well. The walks are offset a bit by the elevated pitch counts, I like the strikeout upside, and the Giants offense is not exactly scary against right-handed pitching, especially now that Jorge Soler has been traded to Atlanta.
Ronel Blanco continues to have underwhelming advanced metrics, but he does benefit from a matchup against a depleted Rays offense that put the .190 hitting, newly acquired Dylan Carlson in the #2 spot last night. I am still not all that excited. Bryce Miller has the better data but has to face a dangerous Phillies team. I wish these matchups were reversed, as I would have a lot of interest in Miller against the Rays. Alas, that is not the case, and I’m really not all that excited about either of them.
Ober, Flaherty, and Greene are the most viable options from the top tier tonight.
SECONDARY ARMS
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