Covering the Bases: Saturday, July 8
STLCardinals84, one of the best tournament players in the game, is here to cover the bases for the upcoming MLB DFS slate. Whether you are looking for the top pitchers or the best stacks, Cards has you covered with an extensive deep dive into his MLB DFS picks.
Happy Saturday, Grinders! We have the noted split slate Saturday on the docket today, but it is a day that is heavily skewed toward day games, with 11 afternoon start times. DraftKings is offering one large afternoon main slate including all 11 of those games, while FanDuel has split it up into a 4 game slate (at 1 PM Eastern) and a 7 game slate (at 4 PM Eastern). To make things as easy as possible to break down, I am simply going to discuss all 11 games together in the context of the DK slate, and I will provide FD notes where necessary.
This should be a very interesting afternoon, as we have a lot of strong pitchers but some good spots for offense too. Let’s get right down to business!
Saturday Afternoon Pitching: MLB DFS Picks on FanDuel & DraftKings
Top Tier Arms
Kevin Gausman vs. Tigers
Gerrit Cole vs. Cubs
James Paxton vs. A’s
Mitch Keller vs. Diamondbacks
Braxton Garrett vs. Phillies
This is a solid group of five pitchers at the top, and both Keller and Garrett have earned promotion into the “ace” conversation with their performance this year. Here’s a peek at the 2023 data:
Gausman – 3.04 ERA, 2.82 xFIP, 33% K, 6% BB
Cole – 2.79 ERA, 3.86 xFIP, 26% K, 7% BB
Paxton – 2.70 ERA, 3.29 xFIP, 31% K, 7% BB
Keller – 3.52 ERA, 3.39 xFIP, 27% K, 6% BB
Garrett – 3.61 ERA, 2.90 xFIP, 28% K, 4% BB
All of these pitchers have strong command, with none of them above 7% walks for the season. Gausman and Cole are the two premium priced options, and I definitely prefer Gausman between them. His strikeout rate and advanced metrics basically run laps around where Cole sits for the season. If you are choosing between them, take Gausman against a weak Detroit lineup. The Tigers rank 28th in team wOBA and have the 7th highest strikeout rate against RHP this year.
Now, the decision becomes a little more complicated if you are playing on FanDuel. Gausman and Cole are both on the “early” 1 PM slate, so they are not available on the “main” 4 PM slate. Obviously, my same analysis holds if you are playing the 1 PM slate. If you are playing the 4 PM slate, though, you don’t have either. That leaves James Paxton as the top selection, and that’s not a bad consolation prize. Paxton was the AL Pitcher of the Month in June and has made an incredible comeback from injury this year. He hasn’t missed a beat and has shown ace-level upside. A matchup against a poor Oakland team certainly helps his cause today. I would rank him above Cole but behind Gausman if you are putting all three pitchers in a bucket today.
Keller and Garrett have also been very strong in their own right. Garrett has a slightly higher strikeout rate but has shown impeccable command. However, these two pitchers both have relatively tough matchups today, with Keller facing Arizona (6th in wOBA, 28th in K% against RHP) and Garrett facing Philadelphia. The good news for Garrett is that the Phillies have been just average against LHP this year, and they have the 7th highest team strikeout rate. If choosing between these two, give me Garrett > Keller today.
Officially, I will have the most exposure to Gausman, Paxton, and Garrett from this tier — and in that order.
Other Viable Hurlers
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