Covering The Bases: MLB DFS Picks for Saturday, June 29th
Long-time grinder, stlcardinals84, is here to cover the bases for the upcoming MLB DFS slate. Whether you are looking for the top pitchers or the best stacks, Cards has you covered with an extensive deep dive into his favorite MLB DFS picks.
Happy Saturday, everyone! Welcome to the final weekend of June. The summer weather continues to heat up, and that generally means we start to see more offense. However, pitching looks to be the name of the game today, and there are plenty of good matchups to break down. In fact, as of the time I am writing this, not a single game on today’s board has opened with a total above 8.5 runs. Bring on the strikeouts!
The start of the weekend brings us matching slates on both FanDuel and DraftKings, with an eight-game main slate starting around 4 PM Eastern and a smaller four-game night slate. This should be an action-packed day, so let’s get down to business!
Saturday Afternoon Pitching: MLB DFS Picks on FanDuel & DraftKings
A LARGE GROUP OF ACES
Tanner Houck vs. Padres
Cole Ragans vs. Guardians
Zac Gallen vs. Diamondbacks
Max Fried vs. Pirates
Aaron Nola vs. Marlins
Tanner Bibee vs. Royals
Paul Skenes vs. Braves
Holy aces, Batman! I have listed these pitchers in the order in which they are priced on DK, which starts with Tanner Houck at $10,200 and ends with Paul Skenes at $8,500. That’s why it might seem weird the way I have the list ordered, and it’s noteworthy that Skenes is priced down that low. However, no pitcher is priced up to the point where you can’t use them. FD has four pitchers priced above $10,000, with Skenes being the final of those options.
In any case, let’s start with a look at the 2024 stats:
Houck – 2.18 ERA, 2.95 xFIP, 24% K, 4% BB
Ragans – 3.03 ERA, 3.13 xFIP, 30% K, 8% BB
Gallen – 3.12 ERA, 3.33 xFIP, 26% K, 6% BB
Fried – 3.00 ERA, 3.24 xFIP, 22% K, 8% BB
Nola – 3.39 ERA, 3.52 xFIP, 23% K, 6% BB
Bibee – 3.50 ERA, 3.21 xFIP, 29% K, 6% BB
Skenes – 2.14 ERA, 2.26 xFIP, 34% K, 4% BB
While all of these pitchers are very good, you can see that the stats for Paul Skenes just jump off the page. They are ridiculous across the board. I get that some DFS players will have some trepidation about playing him against the Braves, but this just isn’t the same Atlanta offense. Over the last 30 days, they rank 19th in the league in team wOBA, 21st in walk rate, and 11th in strikeout rate. They are just an average unit right now. Throw in all the upside of Skenes and the fact that his salary doesn’t break the bank, and he’s my favorite arm on this slate by a reasonable margin.
The other high strikeout arms on this list are Tanner Bibee and Cole Ragans, who will be facing off against each other in Kansas City this afternoon. I’ll give Bibee a slight edge because I prefer his matchup more, but both are definitely on the GPP radar as high-upside pivots away from Skenes.
The lower strikeout options in this tier are Max Fried and Aaron Nola. Nola is my preferred option here given his long history of success at home. He also gets the benefit of facing a Marlins team that ranks 29th in team wOBA, 28th in team ISO, and last in walk rate against RHP this season. Both are safe options here, but I prefer Nola.
Zac Gallen is completely off the radar today. He is returning from a stint on the IL, and he did not go on a rehab assignment. He only threw simulated games prior to his return. Even though this is a strong matchup against Oakland, I cannot see the Diamondbacks pushing his pitch count. This is a day where we are absolutely going to need high scores from our pitching options, and Gallen has a very limited ceiling in this circumstance.
I don’t have a strong take on Tanner Houck. He has been excellent for the Red Sox this year, but he now feels overpriced in DFS, and he has to face a Padres team that is absolutely rolling at the moment. He will be in my GPP pool if building 50+ lineups, but he probably doesn’t make the first ten.
SECONDARY PITCHING OPTIONS
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