Covering the Bases: Saturday, September 30

STLCardinals84, one of the best tournament players in the game, is here to cover the bases for the upcoming MLB DFS slate. Whether you are looking for the top pitchers or the best stacks, Cards has you covered with an extensive deep dive into his MLB DFS picks.

Happy Saturday, Grinders! We have a healthy 11-game night slate on tap for this Saturday, so let’s end the season with a bang. This will be our final feature article of the year. Thank you so much for reading and following along throughout the 2023 MLB grind, and I hope that Cheese and I have been able to help you make some money along the way!

Let’s analyze the games that we have tonight in an attempt to uncover some strong MLB DFS picks to close out the season!

Saturday Motivation Angle

First, let’s take a look at the playoff picture with just two days remaining in the regular season. There are only eight teams that have anything to play for at this point, and two of them (TOR and MIA) are not on the night slate.

That leaves us with Texas, Houston, and Seattle in the American League. One of them will be the AL West winner. One of them will be a wild card. One of them will likely be left out of the playoffs assuming that Toronto doesn’t collapse. All three of these teams should go all out to win.

We have Arizona, Cincinnati, and Chicago in the National League with something to play for, though the Cubs are on life support, with four straight heartbreaking losses this week. The Cubs will be eliminated with one more win by the Marlins. Still, we can expect these three teams to go all out to win.

The remaining ten teams on the night slate have nothing to play for. I am most concerned about the teams that have locked in their playoff positioning. The Orioles, Braves, and Dodgers would be the three primary examples. I am very worried about pitchers from these teams, and I am a little lower on the bats as well.

With the housekeeping out of the way, let’s dig in!

Saturday Night Pitching: MLB DFS Picks on FanDuel & DraftKings

Four Top Tier Arms – But Some Caveats

I just had to work the word “caveat” into an article to end the year. Word of the day!

Spencer Strider vs. Nationals
Clayton Kershaw vs. Giants
Luis Castillo vs. Rangers
Justin Verlander vs. Diamondbacks

I am actually not going to go through my usual motion of listing everyone’s stats here. If we just do that, we obviously know that we’re going to see solid overall numbers from Clayton Kershaw and an elite strikeout rate from Spencer Strider. If all the pitchers on this slate were going at full strength, they would be elite options. However, Strider and Kershaw are virtually guaranteed to be on a pitch count tonight with both of them making their final tune-up starts before the postseason. The Braves and Dodgers have nothing to gain by pushing their aces at this point.

It feels risky to fade Strider, but he’s very expensive and is facing a low strikeout Nationals lineup. I just don’t see him putting up a score worthy of that healthy salary tag tonight.

That leaves us with Luis Castillo and Justin Verlander in the top tier, and we don’t have to worry about motivation with either of these pitchers. Luis Castillo is going to be my SP1. The Mariners still have everything to play for and likely need to win their last two games to make the playoffs. Expect them to lean on their ace in Castillo today. He has a healthy 7 1/2 strikeout prop, and the Mariners have done a good job of holding the Rangers in check so far in this series. Castillo has solid metrics across the board this year with a 3.20 ERA and 3.76 xFIP to go along with a 27.4% strikeout rate. His overall profile is just better than Verlander’s, but I can see having GPP exposure to both.

In short, I’m out on Strider and Kershaw. I’m in on Castillo. I’m neutral on Verlander. Our early projections are giving a much higher pitch count to Strider than I would, so there is certainly room to disagree with me on Strider. If you think he could get seven innings, then he obviously becomes the SP1 on the slate. I don’t think he pitches beyond five innings.

Secondary Pitching Options

Merrill Kelly vs. Astros
Michael Wacha vs. White Sox
Clarke Schmidt vs. Royals
Kutter Crawford vs. Orioles
Andrew Heaney vs. Mariners
Connor Phillips vs. Cardinals
Joe Boyle vs. Angels

This is quite the large group of secondary pitchers, and I think it’s definitely viable to fade the top arms on this slate if you want to spend up with your bats. As usual, let’s take a look at the 2023 numbers:

Kelly – 3.38 ERA, 3.82 xFIP, 26% K, 10% BB
Wacha – 3.39 ERA, 4.50 xFIP, 22% K, 8% BB
Schmidt – 4.65 ERA, 4.35 xFIP, 22% K, 7% BB
Crawford – 4.23 ERA, 4.39 xFIP, 25% K, 7% BB
Heaney – 4.28 ERA, 4.53 xFIP, 24% K, 10% BB
Phillips – 5.66 ERA, 4.58 xFIP, 28% K, 11% BB (21 MLB innings)
Boyle – 0.00 ERA, 5.02 xFIP, 25% K, 8% BB (9 MLB innings)

Merrill Kelly is easily the best pitcher of this group, as he has an xFIP that is almost two-thirds of a run better than any other pitcher I have listed here. However, he doesn’t come at much of a discount from the top arms on this slate, and he draws a tough matchup against a now healthy Houston lineup. I think he’s perfectly fine on this slate, but I wouldn’t prioritize him by any means.

Michael Wacha is a similar quality pitcher, though his advanced metrics have suggested regression all year. He is just one of those guys that tends to pitch to better numbers than you would think. The walks and strikeouts are merely league average though. If he were facing a good lineup, I would have little to no interest, but he’s on the radar against the White Sox.

Clarke Schmidt and Kutter Crawford are going to be on the radar for a lot of people tonight. Schmidt draws a favorable matchup against the Royals, but we saw last night that it may not matter as Carlos Rodon allowed eight runs, six hits, and three walks without recording a SINGLE OUT against this same Royals offense. Remarkable. I prefer Crawford here, as he gives you access to a little more strikeout ceiling. He also benefits from a matchup against an Orioles team that has clinched the #1 seed in the American League and is likely to continue to rest some hitters in these final two games.

Andrew Heaney is the easiest cut from this group. While his salary stands out on DK, he has been pitching out of the bullpen all month and is unlikely to go more than two or three innings. Pass.

The tier concludes with a couple of rookies who all have fewer than 25 innings of major league experience. Connor Phillips is the most intriguing in a matchup against a watered down Cardinals lineup. He has shown a strikeout arm throughout his minor league climb, and he has a 28% strikeout rate over his first handful of MLB starts. However, he also doesn’t come cheap at $7,900 on FD and $8,200 on DK. I still like him in GPP builds. The same goes for Boyle against a weak Angels lineup. I just wish these two were a little bit cheaper. Kutter Crawford remains my preferred value choice on the slate.

Saturday Night Hitting: MLB DFS Picks on FanDuel & DraftKings

Top Tier Offenses

Twins vs. Karl Kauffmann (at Coors Field)
Rockies vs. Chris Paddack / Emilio Pagan / Twins Bullpen (at Coors Field)
Braves vs. Joan Adon
Dodgers vs. Tristan Beck / Giants Bullpen
Yankees vs. Alec Marsh / Royals Bullpen

Even though I have Coors Field listed first, I want to talk about the two teams right below them to start this section. It has been a common refrain all year that you can play the Braves and the Dodgers any time they are facing a weak pitcher. That obviously rings true once again today. However, these two teams have literally nothing to play for. Their opponents also have nothing to play for. I would be shocked if we didn’t see these two teams rest some players today or tomorrow. Based on how they have treated this week, it seems like the Braves are playing their regular lineup more than the Dodgers are. The Braves also have a significantly higher team total. If I am playing a high-end offense tonight, it will be the Braves against the shaky command of Joan Adon. I do love the upside here, and you can play any of their top hitters that start tonight. Should we get a few value insertions into the lineup, that will make them even more affordable as a stack. Austin Riley is my favorite individual piece largely because third base isn’t all that strong on this slate, but you can obviously play anyone. I don’t have nearly as much interest in the expensive Dodgers.

This brings me to Coors Field. I really love this spot tonight. Both teams are throwing out bad pitchers. We know the Twins aren’t going to burn their top bullpen guys with their playoff spot secure. Don’t stress out any of your top arms just because you’re playing at Coors Field. I fully expect this game to get absolutely nuts. There’s also no sense in breaking down the matchups because we are essentially going to see bullpen games on both sides. That gives me some worry about pinch hit risk with some of the Twins, but they have even been starting guys like Donovan Solano against some RHP of late. I like Nolan Jones for his upside and Brendan Rodgers as a value (on DK) for the Rockies, and I’ll have loads of stacks of both sides of this game. I expect a good old fashioned 13-10 Coors Field shootout tonight.

Lastly, the Yankees are one of my favorite offenses to target as well. The concern is that they are simply playing out the string, but I do think they will show some life after getting embarrassed on Friday night. They are likely going to be facing Alec Marsh as a bulk arm, and Marsh has a fly ball lean with woeful overall metrics. That plays into the power of Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton, though we will need to make sure that both are playing tonight (Stanton sat on Friday). We also have plenty of value potential here with the likes of Austin Wells, Oswaldo Cabrera, and Gleyber Torres (on FD). I like the combination of salaries and upside here.

Secondary Bats and Stacks

Reds vs. Drew Rom
Cubs vs. Eric Lauer
Padres vs. Mike Clevinger
Red Sox vs. Kyle Gibson
Brewers vs. Jordan Wicks
A’s vs. some random combination of Angels

The secondary tier is somewhat intriguing, but these teams are all a clear step below the top group for me. The Reds would be my first choice from this tier. They piled up 19 runs against the Cardinals on Friday, and now they face a talented but inconsistent rookie in Drew Rom. The St. Louis starter has a 5.84 xFIP and an 11% walk rate in his brief MLB sample. Nick Senzel leads the Reds with a .420 wOBA against LHP this year and is a great point-per-dollar value, though he does have some pinch hit risk once Rom leaves the game. Spencer Steer has an elite power profile and would be my second choice. The full stack also has plenty of ceiling potential.

The Cubs are essentially eliminated at this point, but they will technically still be alive when they take the field tonight. It sounds like Eric Lauer is going to start for the Brewers, so start with the Cubs that have the best splits against lefties. Seiya Suzuki and Christopher Morel both have .350+ wOBA marks and solid power data, while Cody Bellinger always goes under-owned in L/L matchups and has a .414 wOBA of his own against southpaws. Jeimer Candelario has good numbers since coming over as well. I do like the Cubs to show up and try to stay alive tonight.

San Diego and Boston are next on the list, and they grade out relatively similarly in terms of projection. I think the Padres have the wider range of outcomes. You never know what you are going to get from this team, especially now that they have been officially eliminated from playoff contention. You also never know what you are going to get from Mike Clevinger. The Padres are a high-upside stack, and I like the stack more than trying to pick out individual bats here. Clevinger is also on the SP2 radar should the Padres roll out a depleted lineup tonight. Boston has some appeal against Kyle Gibson, especially if the Orioles look to limit his innings. Alex Verdugo, Rafael Devers, and Masataka Yoshida are your best targets against RHP with what’s left of the Boston lineup.

Milwaukee is also listed here because they could certainly go off against a weak pitcher in Wicks and what has become a problematic, overworked Cubs bullpen. However, the Brewers are clearly treating these games with something of a grain of salt after choosing to sit Brandon Woodruff and Freddy Peralta for the weekend. This isn’t an offense with a ton of ceiling, and I’m really not that interested outside of Christian Yelich and William Contreras.

If you want to take a dart throw on some cheap bats, the A’s are also viable. We have no idea who is pitching for the Angels, so this is merely throwing darts at top-of-the-order bats once we get confirmation of a lineup. Yes, it’s time for MLB season to end, my friends!

Saturday Slate Summary

Pitcher Ranks
1) Luis Castillo
2) Kutter Crawford
3) Justin Verlander
4) Merrill Kelly
5) Spencer Strider (worried about pitch count)
6) Joe Boyle
7) Michael Wacha
8) Connor Phillips

Stack Ranks
1) NYY
2) ATL
3) COL
4) MIN
5) CIN
6) CHC
7) LAD

Top Spend-Up Bats – Aaron Judge, Ronald Acuna, Austin Riley, Mookie Betts, Bobby Witt, Fernando Tatis, Max Kepler, Mookie Betts

Top Mid-Range / Value Bats – Giancarlo Stanton, Gleyber Torres, Austin Wells, Ryan McMahon, Nolan Jones, Seiya Suzuki, Jeimer Candelario, William Contreras, Nick Senzel, Oswaldo Cabrera, DJ LeMahieu, Donovan Solano, Alex Kirilloff

Good luck tonight, and thanks for a great season!

Image Credit: Getty Images