Covering the Bases: Sunday, May 7
STLCardinals84, one of the best tournament players in the game, is here to cover the bases for the upcoming MLB DFS slate. Whether you are looking for the top pitchers or the best stacks, Cards has you covered with an extensive deep dive into his MLB DFS picks.
Happy Sunday, Grinders! My Cardinals suffered yet another gut-wrenching loss on Saturday and now sit at 10-24. Times are tough in Redbird Nation. As I look at this Sunday slate, I see that they have the highest implied team total on the board. Are you kidding me? The oddsmakers have been slow to adjust for just how bad this team is right now. They have lost eight in a row and are facing a potential series sweep heading into the final game for the SIXTH consecutive series. Yikes.
I hope your teams of interest are faring better than mine is.
In any case, we have an eight game main slate on this Sunday, and I expect this to be something of a high scoring DFS slate. Let’s get to some of my favorite MLB DFS picks of the day!
Sunday Pitching: MLB DFS Picks on FanDuel & DraftKings
The Top Options
Gerrit Cole vs. Rays
Joe Ryan vs. Guardians
Sandy Alcantara vs. Cubs
We have three pitchers that could be considered as aces on this slate. Gerrit Cole is the established, long-term ace. Joe Ryan is the budding future ace. Sandy Alcantara was last year’s breakout star and Cy Young winner. Let’s peek at the 2023 data for these three aces:
Cole – 1.35 ERA, 3.46 xFIP, 29% K, 8% BB
Ryan – 2.37 ERA, 3.16 xFIP, 30% K, 4% BB
Alcantara – 5.09 ERA, 4.37 xFIP, 21% K, 8% BB
Alcantara is simply not in play at the moment. He’s always been a better “real life” pitcher than fantasy arm, and there just isn’t a big ceiling here. His strikeout rate is below league average, and it’s simply not prudent to pay up for him against a Cubs team that has proven to be better at the plate this season.
That leaves Cole and Ryan as the top two. Cole has a really tough matchup, but this is a really bad pitching slate (you’ll see that when we get to the next tier). Cole still projects as the top overall option by a fairly comfortable margin, and he owns a 1.35 ERA and 29.4% strikeout rate on the year. While the advanced metrics do suggest some regression, he has the best combination of safety and upside on the board — even against Tampa Bay.
Despite my comments above, I do think there is some merit to going underweight on Cole in GPP builds today. He’s going to be very popular, and the masses simply haven’t bought in to Joe Ryan as much. You could argue that Ryan’s profile this season is better than Cole’s, as Ryan has a better xFIP, higher strikeouts, and lower walks. Cleveland isn’t a mega dangerous offense, and Ryan is going to be significantly lower owned. He’s my favorite GPP arm on the slate.
The Secondary Options
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