MLB DFS Expert Survey: Thursday, July 11th
Our panel of experts is here to give you their MLB DFS advice for today’s main slate contests by answering a handful of questions to help you make crucial lineup-building decisions. Want to know CheeseIsGood’s favorite sneaky stack? Or STLCards’ top overall pitcher? Find out below!
MLB DFS Picks: DraftKings & FanDuel Expert Survey for Thursday, July 11
Who is your favorite hitter to spend up for in cash games?
SquirrelPatrol: Shohei Ohtani
Alex Sonty: Bryce Harper
Dean78904: Bryce Harper
ebeimfohr: Bryce Harper
Who is your favorite hitter (when considering price, matchup, projected ownership, etc.) on the board and why?
SquirrelPatrol: Kyle Schwarber – I can’t recall seeing a lower HR prop than Schwarber’s +130 odds tonight. WeatherEdge is showing this game with a 28.2% increase to HRs, and Schwarber has a .264 ISO vs. RHP since the start of last season. Landon Knack has allowed 1.82 HR/9 this season and has allowed a .525 SLG% to right-handed hitters.
Alex Sonty: Kyle Schwarber – Landon Knack was 23rd in the Dodgers system entering the season, according to FanGraphs, because he doesn’t have the velocity for more than a “back-end role.” And it’s showing. Knack has allowed a 55.3% hard-hit rate and 31.9% fly-ball rate to lefties this season, so it’s safe to say that his 1.00 HR/9 allowed to them is a bit lucky. Schwarber has team highs in barrel rate (14.4%) and hard-hit rate (65.3%) against RHP this season while carrying a 31.4% fly-ball rate, and he’ll be leading off for a Phillies team with a 5.3 implied run total. It’s forecasted to be 88 degrees and humid in Philly at first pitch. He is a great power bat against a pitcher who struggles to prevent power in a good hitting ballpark with great hitting weather.
Dean78904: Rafael Devers – Opposing SP Luis Medina has the highest SIERA (5.79) on the slate (I’m not counting Bloss and his 3 IP). His strikeout ability plummets to just 14.1% vs. lefty sticks, and the larger point I want to stress is how lucky he has been when it comes to fly balls. Medina has a fly-ball lean but has only allowed .51 HR/9, thanks in part to home games in Oakland. Throwing baseballs in Boston should prove to be more challenging when it comes to keeping them in the park. As things stand right now, Devers’ pOWN% projection feels a little low (15% FD / 10% DK) when you consider how much he hammers RHPs – .370 ISO / .457 wOBA.
ebeimfohr: Julio Rodriguez – We have seen twice in the last week the upside we’ve been waiting for from Julio all season. It’s just still been a pretty rocky season for him. But he has started slow before and gone on to post strong numbers thanks to an incredible hot streak, and this is a great spot to build on his recent success. Julio swings and misses…a lot. So, drawing a minor leaguer with zero strikeout upside and a terrible Angels bullpen is the perfect spot to tap into his upside.
Who is your top overall pitcher (when considering price, matchup, projected ownership, etc.) on the board and why?
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