MLB DFS Expert Survey: Thursday, September 11th

Miller of the Mariners

Our panel of experts is here to give you their MLB DFS advice for today’s main slate contests by answering a handful of questions to help you make crucial lineup-building decisions. Want to know CheeseIsGood’s favorite sneaky stack? Or headChopper’s top overall pitcher? Find out below!

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MLB DFS Picks: DraftKings & FanDuel Expert Survey for Thursday, September 11

Who is your favorite hitter to spend up for in cash games?

headChopper: Aaron Judge
Dean78904: Manny Machado
ebeimfohr: Fernando Tatis Jr.

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Who is your favorite sneaky stack on the board and why?

headChopper: Mets — Jesus Luzardo may actually end up being more highly owned than the Mets stack. He can be good, but he also has plenty of games where he’s terrible, and this Mets team has power against LHP. PlateIQ shows a potential lineup with 4 hitters carrying an ISO of at least .200 vs. LHP this season. Luzardo’s 9.3% walk rate and .144 ISO allowed to righties this season make him susceptible in this split.

Dean78904: Angels — The current roster for the Angels has struck out an unacceptable amount vs. RHP (26.2%), but their 7th-highest ISO tells us they have plenty of power upside when they actually hit the ball. It appears that Bryce Miller, despite being quite bad this season, is going to be the most-rostered pitcher on the slate, so this works as a leverage angle as well. Miller has given up at least 1 HR in his last 8 starts, serving up a whopping 2.52 HR/9 over that period. Baseball Savant has 355 pitchers ranked by average exit velocity allowed this season, and you guessed it – Miller ranks 355th. I’d focus on 1 through 5 in the Angels order, with Zach Neto, Jo Adell, and Yoan Moncada being my favorite places to start.

ebeimfohr: Angels — This one is pretty straightforward. While I think Bryce Miller is the top play at pitcher on a weak pitching slate, it’s a very high-variance spot against this Angels lineup. They offer a lot of power and danger against a pitcher who hasn’t been pitching particularly well since his return from injury 4 starts ago. If Miller’s struggles continue, the Angels can do some serious damage from a power perspective here, and they offer significant leverage facing the likely highest-owned pitcher of the night.

Who is your favorite pitcher (when considering price, matchup, projected ownership, etc.) on the board and why?

headChopper: Bryce Miller — No single pitcher jumps out to me as a great play tonight, but Miller looks like the best option, in my opinion. The Angels have the 2nd-lowest implied run total on the slate, and this game is in Seattle, a pitcher-friendly park where Mariners arms tend to thrive. There are going to be plenty of strikeouts in this Angels lineup since they can’t help but roll out multiple high-K bats with their active roster. Miller’s numbers this season don’t look appealing – a 4.83 xFIP and 17.2% K rate, the worst of his career by a wide margin – but I don’t believe that’s indicative of who he really is. His velocity is fine, though he did change his pitch arsenal this season, which may explain some struggles. I think he’s better than he’s shown, and this is as good of a matchup as we’ll find on the slate.

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About the Author

Jbails26
Justin Bailey (Jbails26)

Justin Bailey (aka jbails26) is the Lead Editor for RotoGrinders and FantasyLabs. He’s been playing DFS since 2013 and specializes in small-field NFL and PGA contests (but still dabbles in MME). Justin qualified for the DraftKings Fantasy Golf World Championship in 2023. Follow Justin on X – @justinbailey32