Million Dollar Musings: MLB DFS Picks for Friday, June 28th
CheeseIsGood, a winner of a $1,000,000 1st-place prize on both DraftKings and FanDuel, is here to give you his musings on the upcoming MLB DFS slate. Whether you are looking for the top pitchers or the best stacks, Cheese has you covered with an extensive deep dive into his MLB DFS picks.
Happy Friday! We have an absolute mess of a 13-game slate tonight. There is only one pitcher with a strikeout above 25% and a whopping 15 starters with strikeout rates below 19%. Even with that, there isn’t a ton to love on the offensive side, which just gives us these massive buckets of tangled messes on both sides. I would call it bananas, but that’s not going to work because bananas are good. I’m very excited for the weekend!
Friday Pitching: MLB DFS Picks on FanDuel & DraftKings
I’m going to type a lot of words about a lot of pitchers because that’s what I do, but feel free to just play Logan Gilbert and Bailey Ober and then skip down to the cliff notes. I’ll start by splitting things up into three tiers, based mostly on the DK pricing.
TOP TIER PITCHING
Logan Gilbert vs. Twins – 24.6% K, 5.2% BB, 2.71 ERA, 3.47 SIERA
Ronel Blanco at Mets – 23.7% K, 10.2% BB, 2.34 ERA,4.19 SIERA
Charlie Morton vs. Pirates – 24.1% K, 10.5% BB, 4.20 ERA, 4.11 SIERA
Logan Webb vs. Dodgers – 21% K, 5.3% BB, 3.16 ERA, 3.36 SIERA
Bailey Ober at Mariners – 25.2% K, 6.1% BB, 4.50 ERA, 3.69 SIERA
Max Scherzer at Orioles – 2nd start of season
There is not a single pitcher on this slate with elite strikeout ability, which leaves me looking a little more at consistency and matchups.
I would consider Logan Gilbert to be the best pitcher on this slate with his above-average strikeout ability, strong control, and steady pitch count. The matchup is just OK but is aided by his home ballpark. I am not going to force in any spend-ups, but without accounting for salary, he’s my SP1. I’ll wait to see what we find at lower salaries before determining what to do with him.
Bailey Ober is coming off one of the most impressive performances we’ve seen from any pitcher all season. It was an ideal matchup, but a complete game with 10 strikeouts on just 89 pitches is remarkable. While I want to be optimistic about the strikeouts, each of his last 2 starts have been against Oakland. However, tonight’s matchup is just as good for strikeout upside against a Seattle team with six batters over a 27% strikeout rate against righties. On DK, Ober is going to be my SP1 with his $1,100 discount from Gilbert. On FD, it’s closer, but I’d be content with Ober if I need the $700.
Every year, there is a pitcher or two who just defies all logic, and right now, that guy would be…
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