Million Dollar Musings: Monday, May 1
CheeseIsGood, a two-time winner of a $1,000,000 first-place prize in DFS, is here to give you his musings on the upcoming MLB DFS slate. Whether you are looking for the top pitchers or the best stacks, Cheese has you covered with an extensive deep dive into his MLB DFS picks.
Happy Monday! Let me be the first to welcome to you the month of May, here in the year 2023. Actually, who knows, maybe some of you have some random person in your life who calls you super early on the first day of every month to say welcome. In that case, let me be the second person to welcome you to May.
Just in case you ever get to thinking that you know everything about everything and there are no surprises left, just remember that on May 1, 2023, the Pittsburgh Pirates had the best record in the National League. Also, while overall it’s nowhere near as surprising, it is an equally jaw-dropping number that the Oakland A’s have managed to work their way to a negative 117 run differential through just 29 games this season. That is some true nonsense baseball right there.
As we get on with the season, we find ourselves with a small 6-game slate for this Monday night. And just in case you wanted to start your month feeling terrible, we have Blake Snell chalk night incoming. LOL. This is going to be a fun one. Let’s see what we can find in the way of non-Snell MLB DFS picks.
Monday Pitching: MLB DFS Picks on FanDuel & DraftKings
There are something like six pitchers on this slate who are realistically viable DFS options. I will say that the other six pitchers on this slate are very similarly skilled to these six but all with tougher matchups that make them nothing but MME leftovers.
Blake Snell vs. Reds
Luis Garcia vs. Giants
MacKenzie Gore vs. Cubs
Drew Smyly at Nationals
Domingo German vs. Guardians
Tony Gonsolin vs. Phillies
Something Snells Awful Around Here
Blake Snell has a decent enough 24% strikeout rate with 12.7% swinging strikes this season. Combining 2022-2023, those strikeouts go up to 30.6%, far and away the top number on this slate. He has five straight seasons over 30% strikeouts, and as inconsistent as he can be, only one of those five seasons came with a walk rate above 10%. We can add in to the good news category that a 20% HR/FB rate and a .333 BABIP this season should both come down.
OK, this all sounds great and seems like good chalk against the Reds, but you know what’s coming next. This jabroni has walked 17 batters in 18 innings over his last four starts. With his inability to find the strike zone, he has not passed five innings yet this season, despite having a 100+ pitch count leash. The dude has walked 17% of righties and will likely face nine tonight.
Very officially, I do fully expect Snell to return to something close to his normal self at some point this season, and it certainly wouldn’t shock me if it happened tonight. However, regardless of
