Million Dollar Musings: MLB DFS Picks Today for Sunday 6/29

by Dave Potts (CheeseIsGood) Last Updated 2025-06-29 14:22:20 Premium Content Part of the product MLB DFS

Whether you are looking for the top pitchers or the best stacks, Dave Potts (aka CheeseIsGood) has you covered with an extensive deep dive into his MLB DFS picks. Cheese, one of the preeminent baseball minds in all of fantasy sports and a winner of a $1,000,000 1st-place prize on both DraftKings and FanDuel, is here to give you his musings on the upcoming MLB DFS slate.

Hey, guess what? Happy Sunday! Your usual Sunday colleague is out gallivanting around the country this week, so you’re stuck with me for this 11-game Sunday slate. A lot of people I know travel, leisurely explore, sometimes ramble, or even jaunt around on vacation. I feel like Cards gallivants and enjoys every minute of it!

As for the baseball, it appears to be all clear on the MLB weather front, so let’s dive into this tricky-looking slate.

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Sunday Pitching: MLB DFS Picks on FanDuel & DraftKings

I’m going to sort things into three buckets based on DK pricing. We have five pitchers up above $9,000, and the trickiness starts right away, with four of them having tougher matchups:

TOP TIER PITCHING

• Spencer Strider vs. Phillies – 30.5% K, 9.8% BB, 4.07 ERA, 3.38 SIERA
• Framber Valdez vs. Cubs – 24.6% K, 8.9% BB, 2.88 ERA, 3.44 SIERA
• Ranger Suarez at Braves – 23% K, 6.3% BB, 2.08 ERA, 3.54 SIERA
• Kris Bubic vs. Dodgers – 26% K, 7.3% BB, 2.18 ERA, 3.46 SIERA
• Chad Patrick vs. Rockies – 23.5% K, 7.5% BB, 3.72 ERA, 3.97 SIERA

On DK, these five are all separated by $900, so salary really doesn’t play a role here. On FD, things are more spread out, with Ranger Suarez up at $10,400 after his strong start to the season, and Chad Patrick is down at $8,600. This makes salary much more of a factor there.

I’m going to start by saying that Ranger Suarez is not going to make my primary pool despite how elite he has been in his last 9 starts. I think it’s basically real, and he is a fantastic pitcher, but he is certainly not going to have a .267 BABIP and 6.7% HR/FB rate forever. More than that, he should face 7-8 righties, against whom he has just a 22.6% K rate. That is still a fine mark, and he’s still at 52% GB to righties, so I’m not saying there’s anything wrong with him today. I just can’t play all these guys, and he’s a bit too priced up for the batted-ball luck.

I’m also not playing Kris Bubic in primary lineups, though again, he’s great and absolutely playable if you want to spread out. It’s just not necessary to pick on the Dodgers when we have other pitchers with similar skills.

It’s possible that both Suarez and Bubic are better real-life pitchers than Spencer Strider at this moment, but we really don’t know that one way or the other. What we do know is that over the long run, Strider is in an entirely different league from them in strikeout ability. He followed up his 13-strikeout game against the Rockies with back-to-back 8-strikeout games against the Mets, and that tells me the upside is still here. The matchup is not great, but when Strider is on, matchup doesn’t matter. This is not an all-in type of situation by any means, but Strider is my SP1 and most likely the chalk.

Framber Valdez is very similar to Suarez and Bubic. There is no doubting the talent, but it’s a low-strikeout matchup as well. In addition to that, he has looked quite shaky in his last couple starts, which all leaves me lukewarm at this salary. As I look at it more, I think I am going to take Suarez ahead of Valdez, which makes me slightly change my initial opinion on Suarez. At least on DK, I’m going to consider Suarez a bit closer to the primary pool as my 2nd option in this tier, leaving Valdez for 3rd.

And now we come to the real conundrum of this top tier. All four of the top pitchers have tough matchups, while Chad Patrick is facing the Rockies. In addition to the obvious matchup boost, Patrick’s skills this season are in the same realm as guys like Valdez and Suarez, with the difference being that Patrick is a fly-ball pitcher, while those lefties are ground-ball pitchers. So far, Patrick has really not been harmed by those fly balls, with an 8.3% HR/FB% keeping his ERA in check. He has started to see a little regression there the past 3 starts, with 13 runs and 4 HR in his last 15 innings, but the strikeouts have still been solid. There is some definite downside risk here, but with the Rockies having 7 batters in the projected lineup above a 24% K rate, I have to begrudgingly say he looks like the SP2. I don’t love the idea of chalky Chad Patrick, but the numbers line up. I am going to be a little under the field simply based on playing Strider ahead of him, and then I’ll be looking for a cheaper SP2, but I will play him ahead of Suarez and Valdez. He’s even tougher to fade on FD at his discount, and I’ll mix and match him and Strider there.

MID-TIER OPTIONS

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