Million Dollar Musings: Thursday, September 7
CheeseIsGood, a two-time winner of a $1,000,000 first-place prize in DFS, is here to give you his musings on the upcoming MLB DFS slate. Whether you are looking for the top pitchers or the best stacks, Cheese has you covered with an extensive deep dive into his MLB DFS picks.
Happy Thursday! We’ve got just a 6-game slate tonight but with plenty of good pitching options for a small-ish slate. The hitting side is headlined by the best offense in the league facing the worst pitcher in the league…what can go wrong! I don’t know if Travis Kelce is playing, but if he is, he’s not playing for Atlanta, so I don’t care.
Let’s jump right in and take a look at some of the MLB DFS picks for this Thursday night.
Thursday Pitching: MLB DFS Picks on FanDuel & DraftKings
We don’t have any must-plays, but there is a strong top group with multiple options in all different pricing tiers.
Luis Castillo at Rays – 26.8% K, 5.9% BB, 3.19 ERA, 3.68 SIERA
Max Fried vs. Cardinals – 25.8% K, 5.3% BB, 2.52 ERA, 3.29 SIERA
Griffin Canning vs. Guardians – 26.8% K, 6.4% BB, 4.30 ERA, 3.68 SIERA
Carlos Rodon vs. Tigers – 20% K, 11.4% BB, 5.70 ERA, 5.45 SIERA
Eduardo Rodriguez at Yankees – 24.4% K, 6.5% BB, 3.11 ERA, 4.00 SIERA
Ryan Pepiot at Marlins – 14 IP (26.4% K, 3.8% BB)
The first big decision point is what to do about Carlos Rodon. If we use long-term data, he is clearly underpriced and would be the easy SP1. If we just take the 2023 numbers with no other context, then he’s just a random mid-tier guy in the MME mix due to the matchup. If we zoom in to just his last three starts since things have started to turn around, then I’d call him the top points-per-dollar option on this slate. So, who is he?
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