Million Dollar Musings: MLB DFS Picks Today for Tuesday 7/1

by Dave Potts (CheeseIsGood) Last Updated 2025-07-01 16:54:47 Premium Content Part of the product MLB DFS

Whether you are looking for the top pitchers or the best stacks, Dave Potts (aka CheeseIsGood) has you covered with an extensive deep dive into his MLB DFS picks. Cheese, one of the preeminent baseball minds in all of fantasy sports and a winner of a $1,000,000 1st-place prize on both DraftKings and FanDuel, is here to give you his musings on the upcoming MLB DFS slate.

Happy Tuesday and Happy July! We open the new month with a 10-game slate that gives me the heebie jeebies. For one thing, we’ve got the Astros heading into Coors Field. I hate this already. I don’t even have to look at the slate to tell you I’m going to fade that nonsense, but that doesn’t mean it’s a good idea. We’ll find out when we get there.

But first we’ve got to dig through a tough pitching slate with a disturbing lack of good mid-tier and cheap options.

On top of all that, the MLB weather is dicey all over the place. We have 4 games on the main slate with some level Orange in them, so we can’t plan anything too precisely until later. For now, I’m including all the games in my analysis, but personally, I won’t have any players from the MIL/NYM game unless things change.

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Tuesday Pitching: MLB DFS Picks on FanDuel & DraftKings

At first glance, this looks like a tough pitching slate without a lot of great options. We have two good pitchers who are priced up accordingly, a couple of options in the $9,000 range and then just a bunch of dart throwing that appears to have far more risk than upside. But let’s dive in and see what happens:

TOP TIER PITCHING

• Yoshinobu Yamamoto vs. White Sox – 28.4% K, 8.7% BB, 2.61 ERA, 3.26 SIERA
• Jacob deGrom vs. Orioles – 25.9% K, 5.5% BB, 2.08 ERA, 3.32 SIERA
• Freddy Peralta at Mets – 25.5% K, 8.8% BB, 2.90 ERA, 3.80 SIERA
• Matthew Boyd vs. Guardians – 22.3% K, 5.7% BB, 2.65 ERA, 3.84 SIERA
• Shane Baz vs. A’s – 22.7% K, 9.2% BB, 4.37 ERA, 4.02 SIERA
• Clay Holmes vs. Brewers – 20.4% K, 9.5% BB, 2.97 ERA, 4.18 SIERA
• Grant Holmes vs. Angels – 27.4% K, 11.2% BB, 3.70 ERA, 3.81 SIERA

I’m going to start by saying that neither Freddy Peralta nor Clay Holmes are going to be in my pool tonight unless the weather clears up dramatically. Even without weather concerns, these two would have been at the bottom of this tier, so I’m not willing to play them with any added risk. If it clears up and you want to put Peralta in the pool, be my guest, but he would not be in my plans anyway.

Part of the reason I can so easily write off Peralta is that on both sites, Matthew Boyd is priced just below him, and I prefer Boyd straight up. Peralta does have more strikeout ability, but Boyd has both the better matchup and the steadier skill set with his strong control. Cleveland has a nonsense lineup against lefties, with Jose Ramirez being the only batter with any semblance of power, and there are strikeouts littered throughout the lineup. I don’t love seeing the shortened pitch counts, but I expect him to get back up to his usual 90-pitch level. He was hit by a comebacker 2 starts ago, which is why he left early, and apparently had a bruise on his shoulder that could have played into pulling him after 79 pitches and 6 scoreless innings last week. I certainly prefer the top two pitchers if salary is no issue, but Boyd is my SP3.

Speaking of those top two pitchers, Yoshinobu Yamamoto and Jacob deGrom are in a class of their own tonight. However, I will also say that it has been quite a while now since we’ve seen Yamamoto look like an $11,000 pitcher. He’s good, but after his first few starts of letting the league get some looks at him, I think we’re seeing his real talent level. That talent level would be a 25.4% K rate with 9.7% BB and 51% GB over his last 11 starts since late April. That is still a very good pitcher, but again, not really an $11,000 pitcher. This start probably comes down to his control. If he’s not walking anybody, he should be fine and could get back toward his ceiling of 100+ pitches.

To me, Jacob deGrom looks like a better, more trustworthy pitcher than Yamamoto right now. But we can also say that they have about the same strikeout numbers, and deGrom still doesn’t have the pitch count ceiling. He’s now gone 6 straight starts below 90 pitches. While that sounds less than ideal, he’s just so efficient that 85-90 pitches is 6-7 innings of easy outs. Baltimore has far more power risk than the White Sox but the same strikeout upside. My lean here is to play the salary game, which makes deGrom my SP1 on DK, with Yamamoto my SP1 on FD.

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