Million Dollar Musings: MLB DFS Picks for Tuesday, July 23rd
CheeseIsGood, a winner of a $1,000,000 1st-place prize on both DraftKings and FanDuel, is here to give you his musings on the upcoming MLB DFS slate. Whether you are looking for the top pitchers or the best stacks, Cheese has you covered with an extensive deep dive into his MLB DFS picks.
Happy Tuesday! We’ve got a big 11-game slate that has a whole bunch of everything. We have a pretty clear top tier of five pitchers, with a big gap after them. That leads directly into a slew of top tier offense that is pretty tough to wade through once we get past the Red Sox in Coors Field. We have a few Yellows this morning on our MLB Weather page, but as of now, it looks like everything should be fine.
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Tuesday Pitching: MLB DFS Picks on FanDuel & DraftKings
There are a few strong options up top, and then things get dicey in a hurry once we dip below this top tier.
TOP TIER PITCHERS AND FRIES = FIVE GUYS!
Chris Sale vs. Reds – 32.4% K, 5.6% BB, 2.70 ERA, 2.68 SIERA
Logan Gilbert vs. Angels – 24.8% K, 5% BB, 2.79 ERA, 3.48 SIERA
Garrett Crochet at Rangers – 35.2% K, 5.4% BB, 3.02 ERA, 2.45 SIERA
Zack Wheeler at Twins – 27% K, 7.5% BB, 2.70 ERA, 3.50 SIERA
Luis Gil vs. Mets – 28.2% K, 11.7% BB, 3.17 ERA, 3.94 SIERA
These are five great pitchers, and I would have no issue with any of them being in any of my lineups. However, there are a couple of question marks that give me a clearer ranking of this group.
The first of those issues is with the pitch count of Garrett Crochet. I don’t know why the White Sox bothered to let him start in the last game before the break if he was only going to throw 2 innings, but that’s what happened. They had said a couple weeks prior that they were going to start managing his workload, but up to that point, he was still getting around 90 pitches. My hunch is that something in the 90-pitch range is more of a likely ceiling than a likely expectation. I am just guessing, but if he is at something like 80 pitches at the end of an inning, that’ll be it, and I would also guess that if he gets into any kind of a jam after 75-80 pitches, they’ll pull him. On a per-inning basis, he is the best pitcher on this slate and one of the best in the league, so I certainly have no issue using him, but when adding in the matchup, he’s no higher than my SP3.
There are also some moderate concerns about Zack Wheeler. He was removed from his last start with back tightness after 76 pitches and then missed his last start before the break. My hunch is that he’s completely fine and this was just an excess of caution where they could use the break to get their ace some extra rest. I’m not adjusting my expectations for him, other than to say I doubt we see one of his starts of 110+ pitches. The Twins can get very left-handed, making this not a great strikeout matchup for him, as most of his dominance comes against righties. He is an elite real-life pitcher, and like with Crochet, I have absolutely no issue with using him in any lineup on any site. But with the state of this slate and the slight question mark, he’s merely my SP3-B, tied with Crochet.
Before I get to the somewhat obvious top two, let’s check in on Mr. Luis Gil. His lack of consistency drives me crazy, but there is no questioning the upside when he’s on his game. The problem here is not just his ups and downs with control but also a tough matchup against a Mets lineup with a strong mix of contact, patience, and power. Like everyone here, he’s completely playable anywhere, but he is stuck down as the SP5 for me, which leaves him out of the primary pool.
Presumably, Chris Sale will be the clear chalk on this slate, as he should be. I will say that it’s completely reasonable to fade him based on ownership when we have a slate with four other aces, but before accounting for ownership, he’s the clear SP1. He also had a slightly abbreviated start going into the break, but I don’t see any reason to expect that to continue. Before that shortened start against a low-strikeout team, Sale had 7 consecutive starts of 7+ strikeouts and 25+ DK points in 13 of 14 starts. His strikeout matchup is better than Wheeler’s, Crochet’s, or Gil’s, and I am not going to be overthinking the ownership here. If I can afford the Sale price, I’m playing him.
Logan Gilbert is a little trickier, but he still looks to me like the SP2 if salary is no issue. If we knew Crochet was full strength, I’d go that way, but since we don’t, I’m siding with the steady Gilbert and his innings upside in a good matchup at home. Because of the strikeout gap, he’s pretty far behind Sale, and there won’t be a lot of lineups where you can pair them together, but in an ideal world, that’s what I’d do.
THE UNEXCITING MID-TIER
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