Million Dollar Musings: MLB DFS Picks for Tuesday, September 17th
CheeseIsGood, a winner of a $1,000,000 1st-place prize on both DraftKings and FanDuel, is here to give you his musings on the upcoming MLB DFS slate. Whether you are looking for the top pitchers or the best stacks, Cheese has you covered with an extensive deep dive into his MLB DFS picks.
Happy Tuesday! After a wacky Monday night slate, we are back with a 10-game slate that has a similar setup to last night. The Diamondbacks are again the very clear top offense, but also still priced up and not necessarily any sort of DFS must-play, even if they break out for a better game. We have a big top tier of pitchers that can be separated by matchup and a couple of viable options in each of the cheaper pricing tiers as well.
There is again very little MLB weather concern, and I have to wonder if the weather has simply gotten tired after a long season. I know I have!
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Tuesday Pitching: MLB DFS Picks on FanDuel & DraftKings
This is another deep pitching slate with some gaps in matchup difficulty that will help us sort through things. I’ll start with three buckets based on DK pricing. One note on the top tier – at the time I’m writing this, Chris Bassitt is not the confirmed starter yet, but seems to be the most likely candidate.
TOP TIER PITCHING
Zack Wheeler at Brewers – 27.9% K, 6.9% BB, 2.60 ERA, 3.41 SIERA
Cole Ragans vs. Tigers – 29.6% K, 8.4% BB, 3.32 ERA, 3.42 SIERA
Michael King vs. Astros – 28.1% K, 8.8% BB, 3.06 ERA, 3.61 SIERA
Luis Gil at Mariners – 27.5% K, 12.3% BB, 3.18 ERA, 4.17 SIERA
Hunter Brown at Padres – 25.3% K, 8.4% BB, 3.59 ERA, 3.73 SIERA
Nathan Eovaldi vs. Blue Jays – 24.4% K, 5.9% BB, 3.67 ERA, 3.55 SIERA
Chris Bassitt at Rangers – 23% K, 8.4% BB, 4.20 ERA, 4.11 SIERA
Bryan Woo vs. Yankees – 20.3% K, 2.5% BB, 2.38 ERA, 3.85 SIERA
Every one of these pitchers is good enough to be viable on any slate in any matchup. But we do get a fairly clear dividing line with Zack Wheeler and Cole Ragans up top. The salaries align with that, but if I can afford these two, I am not going to overthink it. Wheeler is one of the most consistent aces year after year, and he’s doing his usual thing with 8 consecutive quality starts and 6-9 strikeouts in each of them. The matchup is neutral, but matchup hardly matters for Wheeler, other than to say he’s less likely to hit a ceiling game. He is not a must-play at the salary, but he is the SP1 for raw points.
Cole Ragans is $700 cheaper than Wheeler on DK and $500 cheaper on FD. Ragans has the higher strikeout matchup and is the higher-strikeout pitcher to begin with. He doesn’t have quite the consistency or control of Wheeler, but with the matchup and salary factored in, I see him as the more realistic starting point on this slate.
After Wheeler and Ragans, things get jumbled up in a hurry. I am leaving…
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