Million Dollar Musings: MLB DFS Picks for Wednesday, July 24th
CheeseIsGood, a winner of a $1,000,000 1st-place prize on both DraftKings and FanDuel, is here to give you his musings on the upcoming MLB DFS slate. Whether you are looking for the top pitchers or the best stacks, Cheese has you covered with an extensive deep dive into his MLB DFS picks.
Happy Wednesday! We’ve got a busy split-slate day that starts nice and early with a 7-game slate at 12:20 PM ET. I’ll start with a quick peek at that early slate and then hop on for an early Crunch Time at 11:40 AM ET.
From there, we’ll jump into the main evening slate, which contains 8 games starting a little earlier than usual at 6:40 PM ET. That also means Crunch Time will be a little early, with a 6:00 PM ET start time. After that, well, I guess it’s bedtime!
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Wednesday Early Pitching: MLB DFS Picks on FanDuel & DraftKings
We have a top tier of Five Guys starting around lunchtime today (!):
TOP TIER PITCHING
Luis Castillo vs. Angels – 23.5% K, 6.9% BB, 3.55 ERA, 3.85 SIERA
Aaron Nola at Twins – 24.2% K, 5.6% BB, 3.54 ERA, 3.52 SIERA
Hunter Brown at A’s – 24.7% K, 9.2% BB, 4.14 ERA, 3.87 SIERA
Justin Steele vs. Brewers – 23.5% K, 5.4% BB, 3.07 ERA, 3.65 SIERA
Nick Pivetta at Rockies – 29.4% K, 6.4% BB, 3.87 ERA, 3.25 SIERA
We have several very good pitchers here, but it’s not immediately clear if any of them stand out for DFS purposes.
Aaron Nola, Luis Castillo, and Justin Steele all have very similar skill sets. They all have occasional strikeout upside, but for the most part, are just slightly above-average strikeout pitchers who are more about strong control and piling up easy innings. All three of them are typically good for 90+ pitches, with 6 innings being the expectation (and more than that being possible when things go their way). The matchups are also very close between the three and don’t do much to help in separating them. Because all three are so close, I want to lean into salary and projected ownership more than usual. I would say Nola has the riskiest matchup (as well as the highest salary), so I’m putting him in 3rd place. My hunch is that Castillo is the chalk here, and while I have no issue with that at all, I would argue that Steele is the slightly better pitcher. With a little extra help from the wind blowing in at Wrigley, I am going to start with Steele ahead of Castillo.
The only pitcher on this slate with a strikeout rate above 25% is the one going into Coors Field, which makes things a little tricky.
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