Million Dollar Musings: MLB DFS Picks for Wednesday, July 3rd
CheeseIsGood, a winner of a $1,000,000 1st-place prize on both DraftKings and FanDuel, is here to give you his musings on the upcoming MLB DFS slate. Whether you are looking for the top pitchers or the best stacks, Cheese has you covered with an extensive deep dive into his MLB DFS picks.
Happy Wednesday! We’ve got another big 11-game slate with a whole bunch of everything. We have pitchers everywhere, from multiple aces to multiple $4,000 punts and offenses from Coors Field all the way down to a massive tangle of blindfolded dart throw stacks. Let’s just dive right in and see what we find.
Wednesday Pitching: MLB DFS Picks on FanDuel & DraftKings
I’ll sort the pitchers into three tiers, using DK pricing as a guide. This first group is $8,500 and up, to be followed by a large group of decent pitchers in the mid-range.
AN ACE AND SOME OTHER ACES
Chris Sale vs. Giants – 32.3% K, 4.7% BB, 2.79 ERA, 2.54 SIERA
Zack Wheeler at Cubs – 26.7% K, 7.4% BB, 2.73 ERA, 3.49 SIERA
Logan Gilbert vs. Orioles – 24% K, 4.9% BB, 2.72 ERA, 3.52 SIERA
Shota Imanaga vs. Phillies – 24.1% K, 4% BB, 3.07 ERA, 3.58 SIERA
Ronel Blanco vs. Blue Jays – 23.4% K, 10.3% BB, 2.49 ERA, 4.26 SIERA
Gavin Stone vs. Diamondbacks – 19.5% K, 7% BB, 2.73 ERA, 4.24 SIERA
The first thing I’m doing here is Xing out Ronel Blanco. The skills just don’t belong in this tier at his high salary in a low-strikeout matchup. I’m also basically crossing out Gavin Stone outside of deep MME. He’s been great in real life, but a 19.5% K rate is not going to cut it on this slate without a big discount. I do think he’s a good pitcher, but I’m not chasing the complete game from last week.
When I look at the remaining four aces, it’s really about as simple as it gets. Chris Sale is just a better DFS pitcher than these other guys. I love Zack Wheeler, Logan Gilbert, and Shota Imanaga, but Sale is just light years ahead of them. His 32.3% K rate plus elite control has given him 25+ DK points in 8 of his last 9 starts. That is remarkably consistent upside in this day and age, and at just $10,200 on DK, I see this as a Don’t Overthink It. That doesn’t mean there won’t be a few lineups where we go double cheaper pitchers, but if I’m playing an ace, it’s Sale.
If I can afford a second ace, it’s a little trickier to sort between…
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